a31dc813e36723dd88757758c57b4f3e.ppt
- Количество слайдов: 38
Xcel: An Update Clean Energy Action January 26, 2012 Leslie Glustrom 303 -245 -8637 lglustrom@gmail. com
Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory Kyoto Target Electricity… Electricity Source: City of Boulder Climate Action Plan Assessment July 2009 http: //www. bouldercolorado. gov/files/Environmental%20 Affairs/climate%20 and%20 energy/City_of_Boulder_ALL_SECTIONS_FINAL_072809_v 9. pdf
Decadal mean surface temperature anomalies relative to base period 1951 -1980. Source: update of Hansen et al. , GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res. 104, 30997 -31022, 1999.
Projected Temp Changes Relative to 1961 -1990 http: //americasclimatechoices. org/ Chapter 6, page 174, Natl Academies of Science Report 2010 Originally from Meehl 2007—Fig 10 -8, IPCC Volume I (2007) www. ipcc. ch
Arctic Summer Sea Ice Melt Compared to IPCC Model Projections Source: National Snow Ice and Data Center
Colorado’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory Source: Center for Climate Solutions GHG Inventory for Colorado Oct 2007 Available from www. rockymountainclimate. org
Source of Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector October 2009 Update ty ci ri 57% of Boulder’s GHGs From Electricity t • 11% Residential Electricity • 46% Comm/Ind Transportation Elec Source: Boulder Climate Action Plan Update October 2009 http: //www. bouldercolorado. gov/files/CAP_Guide. pdf
Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory Kyoto Target Electricity… Electricity Source: City of Boulder Climate Action Plan Assessment July 2009 http: //www. bouldercolorado. gov/files/Environmental%20 Affairs/climate%20 and%20 energy/City_of_Boulder_ALL_SECTIONS_FINAL_072809_v 9. pdf
Xcel’s Colorado Fuel Mix 2009 -2010 2009 52% Coal 2010 Projected 68% Coal
Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory Kyoto Target Electricity… Electricity Source: City of Boulder Climate Action Plan Assessment July 2009 http: //www. bouldercolorado. gov/files/Environmental%20 Affairs/climate%20 and%20 energy/City_of_Boulder_ALL_SECTIONS_FINAL_072809_v 9. pdf
Repowering and Decarbonizing Colorado’s Wind Potential Approx 96 GW Colorado’s Solar Potential Over 200 GW To Meet Peak Demand, Colorado Needs About 12 GW (12, 000 MW) Colorado has the Potential for Over 300 GW of Wind and Solar…. And Many Companies Ready to Build Projects. Clearly, we can largely decarbonize our electricity--IF we decide to do it ! Maps and Resource Potential from Colorado Governor’s Energy Office Information on Wind and Solar Bids from Xcel Energy
GOOD NEWS!!! Xcel Receives Over 15, 000 MW of Renewable Energy Bids in April 2009 Wind 10, 000 MW Solar 3, 000 MW Xcel’s Peak Load Approx. 7, 600 MW (90% Fossil Fuel) Source: Xcel’s 30 Day Report 2009 All Source RFP, Colorado PUC, May 2009
Clean Energy Alternatives to the Valmont Coal Plant Xcel Has Over 14, 000 MW of Clean Energy Projects Ready to Go Source: Xcel’s 120 Day Report on April 2009 Bids—Docket 07 A-447 E Colorado PUC
Xcel: System Cost Savings From Renewable Energy Source: Xcel’s 120 Day Report April 2009 RFP Docket 07 A-447 E Colorado PUC
1)The Delivered Price of Coal Going Up >10%/Year (2004 -2009) Actual Cost > 10%/Year Xcel Models Coal Cost <2%/Year 2) The True Cost of Coal = ? ? ? Cents/kwh
Xcel’s Projections of Future Rate Increases 2015 -2020 (Assuming no carbon charges and almost flat coal prices; 2010 rates between 9 -10 cents/kwh) Source: KTH-5 (Xcel Witness Karen Hyde) Docket 10 M-245 E Colorado PUC
Source: Annual Reports from Xcel to the City of Boulder
Xcel’s Indebtedness Source: www. xcelenergy. com
List of Things to Try Before Considering Municipalization üCarbon Tax üDemand Side Measures üPUC Involvement üCommunity Choice Aggregation üFranchise Negotiations üApproach Xcel with Request
Colorado Municipal Utilities 29 Colorado Munis: Lyons, Loveland, Longmont, Fort Collins, Colorado Springs, etc Source: CAMUColorado Association of Municipal Utilities
Renewables. YES A Remarkable Volunteer Effort
Key Questions for Citizen Experts: 1)How Much Renewable Energy? 1)What Will it Do to Rates?
Boulder’s Load 100 MW “Baseload” i. e. “Coal” 100 MW baseload
20% Renewable Electricity 100 MW baseload
30% Renewable Electricity 100 MW baseload
30% Renewable Electricity Around 30% Renewables, Baseload Coal & Nuclear make no sense. 100 MW baseload
50% RE. 0 Battery. 4% Overgeneration
How do we get to 100% Renewable Electricity? % Renewable s (variable generation) Controllable Generation Solar Wind Etc Up to 25% Mix Nimble Peaking. Static baseload. Yes Mostly wind OK Up to 50% Nimble Peaking Fuel gas. More. Must Mix Wind & Solar Up to 75% Nimble Peaking Fuel gas. Short Storage (seconds to days) Tech Exists And More Up to 100% Nimble Peaking And More To get to 100% nimble fuel tech isn’t obvious. With - practical Long Storage (weeks to years) No Tech Yes Yes, but…
Xcel…Chained to Coal Over 1800 MW of Coal Through 2033 Pueblo Brush Hayden Craig 1170 MW 505 MW 237 MW 84 MW Retire 2033, 2035, 2069 Retire 2041 Retire 2025 and 2036 Retire 2040 and 2039 Xcel Path: Approx 60% Electricity from Coal in 2011 and 35% in 2030 2011 to 2018 Approx. $400 Million Pollution Controls for Brush and Hayden (Won’t Address CO 2) Dockets 10 M-245 E and 11 A-325 E Colorado PUC
Renewable % Comparison— Xcel v Boulder Municipal at Rate Parity Muni Renewable % (at Rate Match) Xcel Renewable % (under 2010 RPS) Graphs by “Renewables Yes “ Using Data from Xcel Provided to City of Boulder and in PUC Dockets
Fossil Fuel Use— Xcel Projections v Boulder Muni at Rate Match Xcel Total Fossil Fuel Use Muni Total Fossil Fuel Use Graph by “Renewables Yes” Using Data from Xcel and Modeling Projections; Source data available on request.
1)The Delivered Price of Coal Going Up >10%/Year (2004 -2009) Actual Cost > 10%/Year Xcel Models Coal Cost <2%/Year 2) The True Cost of Coal = ? ? ? Cents/kwh
Municipal Rates? Likely to Meet or Beat Xcel: • Up to 40% Renewable Energy • Reasonable Acquisition Costs • Reasonable Stranded Costs • Bond Rates Under 8% Hundreds of Modeling Runs Done in 2011: Cannot Get Further Refinement without Final Acquisition and Stranded Cost Numbers Details at www. renewablesyes. org
Municipal Reliability? Munis Typically Have Better Reliability Than IOU’s. Colorado Springs, Loveland Fort Collins All Have Substantially Better Reliability Than Xcel Has in Either Boulder or Denver
Requirement Xcel Muni. B Path to 100% Renew. No. Chained to coal. Yes. Extensive modeling. Minimize Carbon No. 30% reduction 2018. Chained to coal. Yes. 50 – 80% redction coal to gas = 50% Reliability Yes Rates Competitive ? ? ? And up 7% so far this year Yes. Competition. Hire experience. Yes. Extensive modeling. No. Business model Yes. Lots of renewables… Local Control No Growable n/a. Yes. Our voice can be heard Yes. Rates Stabilized
Citizens Lead the Way!! • Express Enthusiasm • Letters to the Editor and Op-Eds • Blog on Daily Camera • Arrange a Talk/Sponsor a Forum • House Party • Attend Planning Meetings
2005 Coal Deliveries to Power Plants by Region—Graphic by Ventyx Red = Powder River Basin