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Xcel: An Update Clean Energy Action January 26, 2012 Leslie Glustrom 303 -245 -8637 Xcel: An Update Clean Energy Action January 26, 2012 Leslie Glustrom 303 -245 -8637 lglustrom@gmail. com

Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory Kyoto Target Electricity… Electricity Source: City of Boulder Climate Action Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory Kyoto Target Electricity… Electricity Source: City of Boulder Climate Action Plan Assessment July 2009 http: //www. bouldercolorado. gov/files/Environmental%20 Affairs/climate%20 and%20 energy/City_of_Boulder_ALL_SECTIONS_FINAL_072809_v 9. pdf

Decadal mean surface temperature anomalies relative to base period 1951 -1980. Source: update of Decadal mean surface temperature anomalies relative to base period 1951 -1980. Source: update of Hansen et al. , GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res. 104, 30997 -31022, 1999.

Projected Temp Changes Relative to 1961 -1990 http: //americasclimatechoices. org/ Chapter 6, page 174, Projected Temp Changes Relative to 1961 -1990 http: //americasclimatechoices. org/ Chapter 6, page 174, Natl Academies of Science Report 2010 Originally from Meehl 2007—Fig 10 -8, IPCC Volume I (2007) www. ipcc. ch

Arctic Summer Sea Ice Melt Compared to IPCC Model Projections Source: National Snow Ice Arctic Summer Sea Ice Melt Compared to IPCC Model Projections Source: National Snow Ice and Data Center

Colorado’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory Source: Center for Climate Solutions GHG Inventory for Colorado Oct Colorado’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory Source: Center for Climate Solutions GHG Inventory for Colorado Oct 2007 Available from www. rockymountainclimate. org

Source of Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector October 2009 Update ty ci ri Source of Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector October 2009 Update ty ci ri 57% of Boulder’s GHGs From Electricity t • 11% Residential Electricity • 46% Comm/Ind Transportation Elec Source: Boulder Climate Action Plan Update October 2009 http: //www. bouldercolorado. gov/files/CAP_Guide. pdf

Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory Kyoto Target Electricity… Electricity Source: City of Boulder Climate Action Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory Kyoto Target Electricity… Electricity Source: City of Boulder Climate Action Plan Assessment July 2009 http: //www. bouldercolorado. gov/files/Environmental%20 Affairs/climate%20 and%20 energy/City_of_Boulder_ALL_SECTIONS_FINAL_072809_v 9. pdf

Xcel’s Colorado Fuel Mix 2009 -2010 2009 52% Coal 2010 Projected 68% Coal Xcel’s Colorado Fuel Mix 2009 -2010 2009 52% Coal 2010 Projected 68% Coal

Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory Kyoto Target Electricity… Electricity Source: City of Boulder Climate Action Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory Kyoto Target Electricity… Electricity Source: City of Boulder Climate Action Plan Assessment July 2009 http: //www. bouldercolorado. gov/files/Environmental%20 Affairs/climate%20 and%20 energy/City_of_Boulder_ALL_SECTIONS_FINAL_072809_v 9. pdf

Repowering and Decarbonizing Colorado’s Wind Potential Approx 96 GW Colorado’s Solar Potential Over 200 Repowering and Decarbonizing Colorado’s Wind Potential Approx 96 GW Colorado’s Solar Potential Over 200 GW To Meet Peak Demand, Colorado Needs About 12 GW (12, 000 MW) Colorado has the Potential for Over 300 GW of Wind and Solar…. And Many Companies Ready to Build Projects. Clearly, we can largely decarbonize our electricity--IF we decide to do it ! Maps and Resource Potential from Colorado Governor’s Energy Office Information on Wind and Solar Bids from Xcel Energy

GOOD NEWS!!! Xcel Receives Over 15, 000 MW of Renewable Energy Bids in April GOOD NEWS!!! Xcel Receives Over 15, 000 MW of Renewable Energy Bids in April 2009 Wind 10, 000 MW Solar 3, 000 MW Xcel’s Peak Load Approx. 7, 600 MW (90% Fossil Fuel) Source: Xcel’s 30 Day Report 2009 All Source RFP, Colorado PUC, May 2009

Clean Energy Alternatives to the Valmont Coal Plant Xcel Has Over 14, 000 MW Clean Energy Alternatives to the Valmont Coal Plant Xcel Has Over 14, 000 MW of Clean Energy Projects Ready to Go Source: Xcel’s 120 Day Report on April 2009 Bids—Docket 07 A-447 E Colorado PUC

Xcel: System Cost Savings From Renewable Energy Source: Xcel’s 120 Day Report April 2009 Xcel: System Cost Savings From Renewable Energy Source: Xcel’s 120 Day Report April 2009 RFP Docket 07 A-447 E Colorado PUC

1)The Delivered Price of Coal Going Up >10%/Year (2004 -2009) Actual Cost > 10%/Year 1)The Delivered Price of Coal Going Up >10%/Year (2004 -2009) Actual Cost > 10%/Year Xcel Models Coal Cost <2%/Year 2) The True Cost of Coal = ? ? ? Cents/kwh

Xcel’s Projections of Future Rate Increases 2015 -2020 (Assuming no carbon charges and almost Xcel’s Projections of Future Rate Increases 2015 -2020 (Assuming no carbon charges and almost flat coal prices; 2010 rates between 9 -10 cents/kwh) Source: KTH-5 (Xcel Witness Karen Hyde) Docket 10 M-245 E Colorado PUC

Source: Annual Reports from Xcel to the City of Boulder Source: Annual Reports from Xcel to the City of Boulder

Xcel’s Indebtedness Source: www. xcelenergy. com Xcel’s Indebtedness Source: www. xcelenergy. com

List of Things to Try Before Considering Municipalization üCarbon Tax üDemand Side Measures üPUC List of Things to Try Before Considering Municipalization üCarbon Tax üDemand Side Measures üPUC Involvement üCommunity Choice Aggregation üFranchise Negotiations üApproach Xcel with Request

Colorado Municipal Utilities 29 Colorado Munis: Lyons, Loveland, Longmont, Fort Collins, Colorado Springs, etc Colorado Municipal Utilities 29 Colorado Munis: Lyons, Loveland, Longmont, Fort Collins, Colorado Springs, etc Source: CAMUColorado Association of Municipal Utilities

Renewables. YES A Remarkable Volunteer Effort Renewables. YES A Remarkable Volunteer Effort

Key Questions for Citizen Experts: 1)How Much Renewable Energy? 1)What Will it Do to Key Questions for Citizen Experts: 1)How Much Renewable Energy? 1)What Will it Do to Rates?

Boulder’s Load 100 MW “Baseload” i. e. “Coal” 100 MW baseload Boulder’s Load 100 MW “Baseload” i. e. “Coal” 100 MW baseload

20% Renewable Electricity 100 MW baseload 20% Renewable Electricity 100 MW baseload

30% Renewable Electricity 100 MW baseload 30% Renewable Electricity 100 MW baseload

30% Renewable Electricity Around 30% Renewables, Baseload Coal & Nuclear make no sense. 100 30% Renewable Electricity Around 30% Renewables, Baseload Coal & Nuclear make no sense. 100 MW baseload

50% RE. 0 Battery. 4% Overgeneration 50% RE. 0 Battery. 4% Overgeneration

How do we get to 100% Renewable Electricity? % Renewable s (variable generation) Controllable How do we get to 100% Renewable Electricity? % Renewable s (variable generation) Controllable Generation Solar Wind Etc Up to 25% Mix Nimble Peaking. Static baseload. Yes Mostly wind OK Up to 50% Nimble Peaking Fuel gas. More. Must Mix Wind & Solar Up to 75% Nimble Peaking Fuel gas. Short Storage (seconds to days) Tech Exists And More Up to 100% Nimble Peaking And More To get to 100% nimble fuel tech isn’t obvious. With - practical Long Storage (weeks to years) No Tech Yes Yes, but…

Xcel…Chained to Coal Over 1800 MW of Coal Through 2033 Pueblo Brush Hayden Craig Xcel…Chained to Coal Over 1800 MW of Coal Through 2033 Pueblo Brush Hayden Craig 1170 MW 505 MW 237 MW 84 MW Retire 2033, 2035, 2069 Retire 2041 Retire 2025 and 2036 Retire 2040 and 2039 Xcel Path: Approx 60% Electricity from Coal in 2011 and 35% in 2030 2011 to 2018 Approx. $400 Million Pollution Controls for Brush and Hayden (Won’t Address CO 2) Dockets 10 M-245 E and 11 A-325 E Colorado PUC

Renewable % Comparison— Xcel v Boulder Municipal at Rate Parity Muni Renewable % (at Renewable % Comparison— Xcel v Boulder Municipal at Rate Parity Muni Renewable % (at Rate Match) Xcel Renewable % (under 2010 RPS) Graphs by “Renewables Yes “ Using Data from Xcel Provided to City of Boulder and in PUC Dockets

Fossil Fuel Use— Xcel Projections v Boulder Muni at Rate Match Xcel Total Fossil Fossil Fuel Use— Xcel Projections v Boulder Muni at Rate Match Xcel Total Fossil Fuel Use Muni Total Fossil Fuel Use Graph by “Renewables Yes” Using Data from Xcel and Modeling Projections; Source data available on request.

1)The Delivered Price of Coal Going Up >10%/Year (2004 -2009) Actual Cost > 10%/Year 1)The Delivered Price of Coal Going Up >10%/Year (2004 -2009) Actual Cost > 10%/Year Xcel Models Coal Cost <2%/Year 2) The True Cost of Coal = ? ? ? Cents/kwh

Municipal Rates? Likely to Meet or Beat Xcel: • Up to 40% Renewable Energy Municipal Rates? Likely to Meet or Beat Xcel: • Up to 40% Renewable Energy • Reasonable Acquisition Costs • Reasonable Stranded Costs • Bond Rates Under 8% Hundreds of Modeling Runs Done in 2011: Cannot Get Further Refinement without Final Acquisition and Stranded Cost Numbers Details at www. renewablesyes. org

Municipal Reliability? Munis Typically Have Better Reliability Than IOU’s. Colorado Springs, Loveland Fort Collins Municipal Reliability? Munis Typically Have Better Reliability Than IOU’s. Colorado Springs, Loveland Fort Collins All Have Substantially Better Reliability Than Xcel Has in Either Boulder or Denver

Requirement Xcel Muni. B Path to 100% Renew. No. Chained to coal. Yes. Extensive Requirement Xcel Muni. B Path to 100% Renew. No. Chained to coal. Yes. Extensive modeling. Minimize Carbon No. 30% reduction 2018. Chained to coal. Yes. 50 – 80% redction coal to gas = 50% Reliability Yes Rates Competitive ? ? ? And up 7% so far this year Yes. Competition. Hire experience. Yes. Extensive modeling. No. Business model Yes. Lots of renewables… Local Control No Growable n/a. Yes. Our voice can be heard Yes. Rates Stabilized

Citizens Lead the Way!! • Express Enthusiasm • Letters to the Editor and Op-Eds Citizens Lead the Way!! • Express Enthusiasm • Letters to the Editor and Op-Eds • Blog on Daily Camera • Arrange a Talk/Sponsor a Forum • House Party • Attend Planning Meetings

2005 Coal Deliveries to Power Plants by Region—Graphic by Ventyx Red = Powder River 2005 Coal Deliveries to Power Plants by Region—Graphic by Ventyx Red = Powder River Basin