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www. tess-project. eu A Transactional Environmental Support System for Europe: Who, Why, What, How? www. tess-project. eu A Transactional Environmental Support System for Europe: Who, Why, What, How? Robert Kenward, TESS Science Supervisor Funded by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP 7/2007 -2013) under grant agreement n 212304 ENV. 2007. 4. 2. 1. 1. Methodologies for scaling down to regional & local level the analysis of policy impacts on multifunctional land uses & economic activity Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

Who? 14 partners/10 countries 1 Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (Greece) Coordination 2 Bournemouth University Who? 14 partners/10 countries 1 Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (Greece) Coordination 2 Bournemouth University (United Kingdom) 3 NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (United Kingdom) 4 Anatrack Ltd (United Kingdom) 5 Ordenamento e Gestão de Recursos Naturais (Portugal) 6 Tero Ltd (Greece) 7 European Sustainable Use Specialist Group of IUCN (Belgium) 8 Federation of Associations for Hunting and Conservation of the EU 9 Pro-Biodiversity Service (Poland) 10 Centre for Cartography of Fauna and Flora (Slovenia) 11 Szent Istvan University (Hungary) 12 Tallinn University of Technology (Estonia) 13 Danube Delta National Institute for R&D (Romania) Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen 14 WWF Turkey (Turkey)

2004: Millennium Assessment Ecosystem Services from Land Use Supporting Regulating Primarily public goods, regulated 2004: Millennium Assessment Ecosystem Services from Land Use Supporting Regulating Primarily public goods, regulated and public funded. Biodiversity needed? Provisioning Extensively private goods; but Cultural livestock & intensive crops have impacts on biodiversity. Science, Education, Recreation; can all benefit from biodiversity & provide incentives to restore BUT HOW CAN THIS HAPPEN? Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

Europe will not halt loss of biodiversity by 2010. WHY? Understanding of causes is Europe will not halt loss of biodiversity by 2010. WHY? Understanding of causes is growing. For 30 declining bird species in UK, Prof. Ian Newton (2004, Ibis 146: 579 -600) identifies: (i) weed control, (ii) early ploughing, (iii) grassland management, (iv) intensified stocking, (v) hedgerow loss & (vi) predation. All can be addressed, in many cases by deintensification measures that have low cost BUT: Outside protected areas, HOW TO PAY? Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

Convention on Biological Diversity Defines Sustainable Use: of components of biodiversity in a way Convention on Biological Diversity Defines Sustainable Use: of components of biodiversity in a way and at a rate that does not lead to the long term decline of biological diversity, thereby maintaining its potential to meet the needs and aspirations of present and future generations. Sustainable Use in 13/19 substantive articles, e. g. Article 10: Protect & encourage customary use of biological resources in accordance with traditional cultural practices that are compatible with conservation or sustainable use requirements. Article 11: Adopt economically and socially sound measures that act as incentives for conservation and sustainable use of components of biological diversity. (BUT: is this worth anything…? ) Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

Governance & Ecosystem Management for Conservation of Biodiversity (GEMCONBIO) Pan-European Survey: Use of Wild Governance & Ecosystem Management for Conservation of Biodiversity (GEMCONBIO) Pan-European Survey: Use of Wild Resources Recreational fishing (European Anglers Alliance) Bird-watching (Birdlife Partners) Collecting fungi (European Council Cons. Fungi) Collecting wild plant materials (Plantlife) Hunting Game-Birds (e. g. grouse, ducks) Hunting Ungulates (e. g. deer, boar) (FACE) 27 country coordinators, 19 languages Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

Participation and annual spending Proportion of Participants Annual EU population grossed up spend surveyed Participation and annual spending Proportion of Participants Annual EU population grossed up spend surveyed millions € billions Hunting 96 -100% 6. 6 16 Angling 64 -94% 23 19 Collecting: Fungi 42% [45]1 Plant Products 7% [135]1 Bird-Watching 81% 6. 2 {8}2 1, 2 unreliable due to [low survey%]{few spend data} Annual spend in EU on Hunting, Angling and Bird -watching is likely to be at least € 40 Billion. Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

SPEND: Hunting (private) in 2006 in the EU € 16 billion Angling € 19 SPEND: Hunting (private) in 2006 in the EU € 16 billion Angling € 19 billion Watching € 8 billion GEMCONBIO survey of hunting, angling, watching: 34 million adults (7% population) spend >€ 40 billion. • In 2006, equivalent US spending was $120 billion • € 40 billion is about € 200 for each cultivated EU ha • CAP budget is € 57 a year, 44% agri-environment • It costs € 6 billion to run Natura 2000 (17% of EU) Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

Now: land-use not fully sustainable, wild resource use not contributing fully to incentive-based conservation Now: land-use not fully sustainable, wild resource use not contributing fully to incentive-based conservation The TESS vision Total Land Area (not all used sustainably) Partially Sustainable Land Use (inc. Agri/Silvi/Pisciculture) Incentive Based Conservation (public + private funds) Fully Sustainable Land Use by regulation & incentive Incentive Based Conservation through Use of Wild Living Resources e. g. agri. Conservation CIRCLE OF through Use SUSTAINABILITY enviroment and. . Use of Wildlife The Vision: land-use fully sustainable, Resources: some adverse value of biodiversity contributing Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism impact fully to conservation European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

BUT Conservation through Use of Biodiversity is COMPLEX! Protection (sticks) Incentives (carrots) • Laws BUT Conservation through Use of Biodiversity is COMPLEX! Protection (sticks) Incentives (carrots) • Laws for Species • Habitat Reserves • State subsidy • Conserve-by-use • Educational • • 12% of land (EU 20%) • Simple (polarising) Culture-friendly everywhere? Complex Conserving=Protecting BARELY STARTED! How to implement conservation through use? Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

(perhaps not TOO complex) If income from use of land in euros/hectare is I (perhaps not TOO complex) If income from use of land in euros/hectare is I from Intensive production, but C from Conservative cropping enables U from sustainable Use of wild resources (e. g. from fees for access, parking, licences, subscriptions, taxes on equipment and tourism) Then suitable management can give C+U≥I , especially if leveraged by agri-environment payments, such that C+U+S» I (NB: EU Common Agriculture gave Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen C+U «I+S)

Bringing 2 threads together 2002 Report for Council of Europe in Kiev high level Bringing 2 threads together 2002 Report for Council of Europe in Kiev high level conference proposes integrating complex knowledge for livelihoods & biodiversity. 2003 Technology Transfer review in CEH finds 40 potential software contributions for DESIRE (Decision Support in Rural Economies). 2004 FP 6 bid: Governance and Ecosystem Management for Conservation of Biodiversity (www. gemconbio. eu) (highest mark in round) 2007 DESIRE concept revised as successful bid Transactional Environmental Support System Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

7 th Framework Programme Theme 6: Environment (Including Climate Change). ENV. 2007. 4. 2. 7 th Framework Programme Theme 6: Environment (Including Climate Change). ENV. 2007. 4. 2. 1. 1. Methodologies for scaling down to the regional and local level the analysis of policy impacts on multifunctional land uses and economic activity Strategic Objective: To design a decision support system related to environment and land use that will enable policy makers to integrate knowledge from the regional and local level into the decision making process, while also encouraging local people to maintain & restore biodiversity & ecosystem services. Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

Why? (TESS objectives) Europe is losing biodiversity and ability to provide ecosystem services. Formal Why? (TESS objectives) Europe is losing biodiversity and ability to provide ecosystem services. Formal Assessment processes (Environmental Impact Assessment, Strategic Environment Assessment) give some protection. However, individual local stakeholders who manage land species also make daily informal decisions, within an envelope of regulations and fiscal incentives but based mainly on local environments. The myriad small decisions summate to change land use. Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

Which affects more land? Formal, top-down EIA regulated activities (e. g. extracting minerals, building Which affects more land? Formal, top-down EIA regulated activities (e. g. extracting minerals, building roads, building)? Informal, local changing cultivation patterns (e. g. crop type, extent, spraying, harvest timing)? Who decides in each case? Government? Organisations? Individual land managers? • Who has most local knowledge? • Whose decisions have most potential for land diversity, hence biodiversity? • Who had most ability to map in detail? Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

GANTT-like TESS work-packages 0 WP 2 WP 3 M O N T H Central GANTT-like TESS work-packages 0 WP 2 WP 3 M O N T H Central Local Survey design Workshop & report 12 NOW M O N T H 24 30 Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

Who makes local decisions? 300 Number of Decisions 250 Decisions (N) 200 3. l. Who makes local decisions? 300 Number of Decisions 250 Decisions (N) 200 3. l. Approximately how many management decisions, on average, do you (or people you represent) make annually that affect the environment in any way? 150 100 50 0 Council Farming Forestry Angling Hunting Reserve Access level 2 managing activities Admin. Level 1 1 Admin. Level 2 Farming and rural Forestry & non. Fisheries and Hunting & Nature watching Recreational access business angling Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing Housetimber products Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen recreational animals and reserves

Decisions per area managed (km 2) 8 7 in terms of area managed, decisions Decisions per area managed (km 2) 8 7 in terms of area managed, decisions are mainly made informally by individual stakeholders 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Council Farming Forestry Angling Hunting & Access Admin level Farming and Forestry & Fisheries and Hunting Reserve Recreational Nature 2 1 rural angling recreational watching and activities level 1 Diversity managing access Convention on Biological level 2 – Clearing House non-timber Mechanism business products animals reserves European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

Different needs formal and informal decision-making Improving formal environmental assessment & decisions (analysis of Different needs formal and informal decision-making Improving formal environmental assessment & decisions (analysis of EIA & SEA practises best for biodiversity & ecosystem services), including feedback for adaptive governance. Innovating a system for guidance and nudgepotential 1 of the much more frequent and pervasive informal decisions on what to grow, when to mow, etc. 1 Thaler, R. H. & Sunstein, C. R. 2008. Nudge – Improving decisions about health, wealth & happiness. Penguin. Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

What? (TESS abstract) We seek to complement formal assessment with an internet-based Transactional Environmental What? (TESS abstract) We seek to complement formal assessment with an internet-based Transactional Environmental Support System that: (a) collates all ways to leverage biodiversity enhancement, uses models to predict economic & biodiversity impacts of small-scale actions, and delivers context-adaptive decision support, so that local people can optimise incomes from ecosystem services, in exchange for (b) information on their decisions, and monitored results, which integrate to support decisions of central assessors for adaptive governance Convention on Biological Diversity fiscal incentives). (regulations & – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

How? An exchange between local stakeholders & central policymakers Decision support for managers of How? An exchange between local stakeholders & central policymakers Decision support for managers of land species: Councils, Farmers, Foresters, Reserve managers, Anglers, Hunters, Access Interests 1. What does central policy and planning have? Capability to produce complex knowledge. Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

e. g. Environmental Information System for Planners A prototype demonstrator that provided Complex Knowledge e. g. Environmental Information System for Planners A prototype demonstrator that provided Complex Knowledge to help planners apply environment data and understanding in the planning process. Land stability Subsidence Pollution Flood Hazard Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen Biodiversity Origin: BGS, CEH and Nottingham University

Some capabilities Flooding Managing Waste Typical annual deposition of sulphur from a power station. Some capabilities Flooding Managing Waste Typical annual deposition of sulphur from a power station. Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen Subsidence Pollution Biodiversity

How? An exchange between local stakeholders & central policymakers Decision support for managers of How? An exchange between local stakeholders & central policymakers Decision support for managers of land species: Councils, Farmers, Foresters, Reserve managers, Anglers, Hunters, Access Interests 1. What does central policy and planning have? Capability to produce complex knowledge. 2. What does central policy and planning need? Local knowledge and local actions. Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

Remote mapping (CEH Landcover 1990) is marvellous, but scale restricts detail, so is best Remote mapping (CEH Landcover 1990) is marvellous, but scale restricts detail, so is best in combination with local mapping (eg. farm plans, civic groups) and species Ground-based for detail, monitoring (e. g. by wildlife Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen watchers, hunters & anglers). (by Swedish hunters, 1985)

How? An exchange between local stakeholders & central policymakers Decision support for managers of How? An exchange between local stakeholders & central policymakers Decision support for managers of land species: Councils, Farmers, Foresters, Reserve managers, Anglers, Hunters, Access Interests 1. What does central policy and planning have? Capability to produce complex knowledge. 2. What does central policy and planning need? Local knowledge and local actions. 3. What do local managers of land & species have? Local knowledge & capabilities (skill, cash, time). 4. What do local managers of land & species need? Complex knowledge to guide their actions. Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

Exchanging decision-support for local knowledge and actions SCALE CONTEXT / QUESTION OPERATION MODE Field Exchanging decision-support for local knowledge and actions SCALE CONTEXT / QUESTION OPERATION MODE Field ! BEEP ! individual HARRIER NEST AHEAD Divert harvester for 20 meters Map on communication device with GPS-autolocation capability. If I use my land like this in future, what happens to my income, game bags and nitrate run-offs? Auto-guides on farm plan: optimizing game, fishing and farm income. How do we route this path to optimise views while minimising erosion and wildlife disturbance? Headland mapping GIS: walking (pay-parking), horse-riding (licence). Farm individual Parish community Higher If trends in land-use continue for 20 Scenario: model subsidy years, how can we still meet payments for leveraging governplanned biodiversity targets? sustainable use activities. ment Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

How? (TESS abstract) A Transactional Environmental Support System, for aiding wise local actions centrally, How? (TESS abstract) A Transactional Environmental Support System, for aiding wise local actions centrally, could help recreational activities leverage de-intensification with enhanced income & stakeholder cohesion. Requirements of Convention on Biological Diversity, for local empowerment and enlightenment, would be met by better monitoring and adaptive management but also continuous formal bio-socio-economic assessment from emergent indicators. Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

GANTT-like TESS work-packages 0 WP 2 WP 3 M O N T H Central GANTT-like TESS work-packages 0 WP 2 WP 3 M O N T H Central Local 12 NOW M O N T H 24 30 Survey design Workshop & report WP 5 Cases Pan-Euro local & central survey Survey design Workshop & report Local mapping & projects & report Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

Importance of Adaptive Management Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Importance of Adaptive Management Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

GANTT-like TESS work-packages 0 WP 2 WP 3 M O N T H Central GANTT-like TESS work-packages 0 WP 2 WP 3 M O N T H Central Local 12 NOW M O N T H 24 Survey design Workshop & report WP 5 Cases Pan-Euro local & central survey Survey design Workshop & report Local mapping & projects & report Brussels Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism 30 Conference European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen WP 4 WP 6 Policy + Internet Survey, analysis, policy document TESS internet design & report Models Audit of models Database complete, reported Gap analysis

SUMMARY www. tess-project. eu o Planning since 2002 o Local, where impacts are mostly SUMMARY www. tess-project. eu o Planning since 2002 o Local, where impacts are mostly unregulated o Integrating research for modelling rapidly o Exchanging maps for decision support o Livelihoods as well as environment (win-win) o Social participation and adaptive governance o Self-funding long-term through adding value o Car analogy, links to SEIS, CMH Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

CONCLUSIONS • Europe is losing ability to provide ecosystem services based on wild biodiversity. CONCLUSIONS • Europe is losing ability to provide ecosystem services based on wild biodiversity. • Regulations give some protection but not for most of the myriad decisions of individuals that change land use outside strictly protected areas. • TESS aims to collate & automate local delivery of all ways to leverage biodiversity enhancement, to (i) predict impacts of small-scale actions on incomes & biodiversity, (ii) support decisions & monitor results so that (iii) central assessors can adapt governance (regulatory & fiscal incentives). Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen

Thank you for listening Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Thank you for listening Convention on Biological Diversity – Clearing House Mechanism European Environment Agency meeting, 11 -12 October 2009, Copenhagen www. tess-project. eu