WWRP report to the CAS Management Group Gilbert Brunet WWRP/JSC Chair
Work Group Meetings SERA Working Group 12 -13 October, 2009 (Trieste) Group on Tropical Meteorology Research 23 -24 October 2009 (Shanghai) Meso-scale Working Group 26 -27 August 2010 (NCAR) SERA Working Group 27 -29 September 2010 (Toulouse) Verification Working Group 27 -29 September 2010 (Toulouse)
SERA Scope and Research Priorities The primary purpose of the WG SERA is to advance the science of the social and economic application of weather-related information and services. This will be accomplished in part through the development, review and promotion of societal and economic-related demonstration projects focused on high-impact weather (HIW) and information.
SERA Working Group Structure WWRP Expert Liaison Research & Application Interest Groups (THORPEX-TIGGE) Core Membership WWRP Expert Liaison (Verification) • social scientists • users • engagers WWRP Expert Liaison (Mesoscale Weather, THORPEX-RCs, etc. ) WMO Programme Management (THORPEX-EC, WMO Forum/PWS, CCl. OPAGs 3/4…) Projects, Demonstrations & Testbeds ICSU/ISSC/ISDR Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) Other Connections (IFRC, IAEM, Earth System Science Partnership, GEO, WHO, WTO, World Bank, NMHAs, industry organizations, IIASA, etc. )
SERA WG Meeting #1 – October 2009, Trieste, Italy Linda Anderson-Berry (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) Kwabena Asomanin Anaman (Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration) Jacqueline Frick (Swiss Federal Research Institute) Paul Kovacs (Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, Canada) Nanette Lomarda (WG SERA Secretariat) Brian Mills (Environment Canada) Michael Staudinger (Zentralanstallt f. Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Austria) Angelika Wirtz (Munich Reinsurance, Germany) Guests Aïda Diongue-Niang (Senegal Meteorological Agency) David Parsons (WWRP Secretariat) Eugene Poolman (South African Weather Service) ICTP, Trieste
SERA Tasks (WWRP Strategic Plan) 1. Finalize the initial WGSERA membership and establish a three-year WG meeting schedule with the WWRP Secretariat - done 2. Clearly define mutual and complementary roles with the ICSU Planning Group on Natural and Human induced Hazards and Disasters (ICSU IRDR). I. forming a joint ICSU-IRDR/WMO WWRP-SERA Working Group as recommended by CAS II. having an Ex Officio representative of WMO- WWRP on the IRDR Steering Committee 3. Establish a basic inventory of related projects, capacity, contacts, and interest in SERA through consultation with WG members, NMHSs, WWRP WGs, THORPEX Regional Committees, other WMO programmes, professional societies, and academic institutions. 4. Develop the architecture and content for an international SERAwx web resource for social scientists and users (either on the WMO-WWRP site or an external server). 5. Joint meeting/session with the JWGVR to define and scope a series of regional and sector based case applications that cut across nowcasting, meso-, and sub-seasonal scales of prediction/decision-making – 27 to 29 September 2010 6. Develop, test and evaluate a SERA-friendly TIGGE dataset from multiple user-perspectives in conjunction with the THORPEX-TIGGE WG. 7. Prepare an outline scoping out a multi-year project to assess the global societal and economic benefits (and costs) of weather information.
SERA Meeting #1 Decisions/Actions General ØMany WWRP projects were conceived and planned without substantive SERA involvement/consultation at their inception—this must change. Potential funding opportunities for SERA-related interests should be identified. ØThe WWRP Secretariat/JSC Chair should seek approval to allocate new funds (up to US$50 k/yr) for basic societal and economic research and applications to advance SERA initiatives. Ø It is recommended that the WWRP Division should acquire familiarity with and experience managing or conducting socio-economic research. Africa ØA fully-costed African THORPEX Implementation Plan would make it easier to identify and obtain funding. ØA approach to using the Munich. Re impact event information in support of the THORPEX Africa High Impact Weather Information System database will be developed.
SERA Meeting #1 Decisions/Actions Decision/Action: WG SERA will develop a Warning Information System “Pre. Demonstration Project” which will include a Gl. FS-TIGGE/TIGGE-LAM evaluation component and applications derived from existing activities (e. g. , Meteo. Alarm, MAP D-Phase, GIN, SWFDPs other EPS applications). J. Frick, B. Mills, L. Anderson-Berry, M. Staudinger, E. Poolman to define specific research questions, opportunities to leverage existing or planned projects, and ultimately a plan/proposal (J. Frick to inform WG SERA on GIN activity before March 2010; report on progress at next WG SERA meeting, June-July 2010).
SERA #2 – 27 to 29 September 2010 NEW OPPORTUNITIES AND UPDATES ØKULTURISK and other Swiss Federal Research Institute activities ØSouth Pacific Severe Weather Forecast Disaster risk reduction Demonstration Project (SWFDDP) and/or 2009 Bush Fire event in Australia ØEconomic approaches to measure the impacts of extreme weather events ØAfrican Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP), South African Flood ØForecasting Guidance project, THORPEX Southern Hemisphere Regional Committee
Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics: RDP SNOW V 10 Requirements • High winds • Fog/Ceiling/Visibility • Precipitation Type/Intensity • Road weather • Orographic Enhancement • Wind directions • Rapidly changing in space/time • Narrow confined valley • Coastal
End User Requirements Threshold Matrix for Downhill, Slalom and Giant Slalom (from Chis Doyle) New Snow (24 hours) Wind Visibility Rain Wind Chill Critical Decision point > 30 cm Constant above 17 m/s or gusts > 17 m/s < 20 m on the entire course> 15 mm in 6 hours or less > -20 Significant decision point > 15 cm and < 30 cm Constant 11 m/s to 17 m/s < 20 m on portions of the course Mixed precipitation Factor to consider > 5 cm Gusts above 14 m/s but < 17 m/s> >20 m but <50 m on whole or part of the course
Whistler Peak
Instrument Sites on Whistler Hot Plates Parsivel POSS Snow Photo Snow Gauges 1800 MR Radar Radiometer Ceilometer 1200 Soundings
SNOW V 10 Venue Forecast: Whistler Creekside Downhill/Slalom/Giant Slalom Pig Alley/Mid Station/Timing Flats METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS : VALID AT 2010 -02 -13 16: 00 GMT PAST NOWCAST -6 h -5 h -4 h -3 h -2 h -1 h GMT TIME 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 WIND [m/s] 10 10 12 10 9 9 8 8 8 10 10 GUSTS [m/s] 0 0 5 0 0 0 3 3 3 5 5 15 VIS [m] 100+ 100+ 100+ SNOW [cm] 0 0 0 0 0 RAIN [mm] 0 0 0 0 0 T [C] -18 -16 -15 -14 -13 WIND CHILL [C] -20 -20 -18 -18 -15 +15 +30 +45 +1 h +15 +30 +45 +2 h +3 h +4 h +5 h +6 h 18 19 20 21 22 10 15 20 22 15 15 10 10 100+ 100+ 0 0 0 0 0 -13 -10 -14 -16 -15 -16 -16 -16 -15 -12 -15 -20 -20 -25 -20 17 Click on box would give reason for alert and indication of confidence (from forecaster or verification scores) in forecast. All boxes would likely contain a range of values or most likely value. Prototype Product Under Discussion
BAMS August 2010
Meso-scale Working Group Integrated Meso-scale Research Environments (IMRE) Definitions and goals ØTo prepare a reference data set (including all relevant information, not only meteorological) for a particular problem that is relevant in mesoscale meteorology ØExamples of relevant problems (meso-scale DA; convection; complex terrain; surface exchange incl. urban; predictability) ØInstructions on how meso-scale models should in general be tested, how to separate error sources, how to verify etc.
Meso-scale Working Group Procedure ØWG-MWFR publishes/updates/acknowledges a selection of test-bed cases where modelers can download the information, the validation data set & test their model on the case. ØGoal for the WG would be that the ‘WGMWFR’ test-bed (or IMRE) becomes a benchmark reference for meso-scale models.
Meso-scale Working Group
Meso-scale Working Group
Meso-scale Working Group Status of the Sochi-2014 RDP / FDP Stephane Belair and Jeanette Onvlee Meeting of the Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Working Group NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA, 26 -27 August 2010
REMINDER. . . Meteorological support for the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympic Games A few slides from last year’s meeting at KNMI. . . based on a presentation provided by Dmitry Kiktev from Roshydromet
Two clusters of «Sochi-2014» Olympic venues Snow sports competitions Ice sports competitions
Sochi-2014 Observational network in the region of the Games Current atmospheric monitoring network is sparse and not representative enough given the complexity of the region and high Olympic demands. Ground-based observations are mostly concentrated along the coast. Vast sea area from one side and nearby high mountains (up to 3 km and more) on another side of Krasnaya Polyana are virtually uncovered with contact observations. (partially completed) In 2009 -2010 more than 30 automatic stations should be added to enhance the existing observational network. Major part of these new stations will be located in close proximity to the Olympic venues. + 3 -5 moored sea buoys 100 -150 km away from the coast; + 8 mobile automated meteorological stations; + More frequent sounding at the nearest aerological stations; + 5 Dopplers instead of existing outdated radars; + Several profilers (2 -3) ….
Sochi-2014 PROPOSED THEMES for the NOWCASTING/MESOSCALE RDP/FDP Observations for winter nowcasting over complex terrain Diagnosis, nowcasting, and short-range forecasting of multi-weather elements – wind speed and wind gust, visibility, fog, precipitation intensity and time Mesoscale deterministic and ensemble prediction High resolution deterministic and ensemble prediction (including downscaled surface systems and fog models) Microphysics and other physical parameterizations Assimilation of high-resolution data (including radar and other observations) Verification based on remote sensing data Societal Impacts. . . all these issues to be discussed at kick-off meeting.
Meso-scale Working Group Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Field Campaign Masahito Ishihara and Kazuo Saito Meteorological Research Institute, Japan and Masayuki Maki National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Japan with courtesy of Dr. Shigeto Watanabe Graduate School of Science, Hokkaido University, Japan
Meso-scale Working Group Social Experiments on Resilient Cities for Extreme Weather Several types of deep convection develop in the Tokyo Metropolitan area during the warm season. Theme 1： Field Experiments 【Meteorology】 To obtain new insight on mechanisms of extreme weather (1) Development of new technologies (2) Field campaign in the Tokyo area (3) Statistical analysis New observation facilities Theme 2: Monitoring and Very-short Forecasting System Field campaign in the Tokyo Metropolitan area Understanding the mechanism Theme 3： Social Experiments 【Engineering】 【Sociology】 Developments collaborating with end users (1) Extreme weather nowcasting methods (2) Development of test-beds of nowcasting systems (3) Extreme weather database Monitoring/Nowcasting Evaluation and adaption the developed nowcasting system (1) Social experiments in rescue services, risk management, infrastructure and education (2) Recommendations for extreme weather resilient cities System Hazard Map Nowcasting
Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) Forecast verification method intercomparison project (ICP) Several members of the JWGFVR have participated in the ICP, which is an effort to provide useful information on new verification approaches that have been developed in the last few years. The initial focus has been on spatial verification approaches, including object-based methods, scale separation approaches, neighborhood methods, and field morphing approaches. The results of these studies will be published as a special collection in the journal Weather and Forecasting. Outreach and other activities The JWGFVR continues to maintain a website on verification: http: //www. bom. gov. au/bmrc/wefor/staff/eee/verif_web_page. html which contains a wide variety of information, and to maintain a discussion group on verification methods.
Verification of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Beth Ebert (BOM) Barb Brown (NCAR) Laurie Wilson (RPN) Tony Eckel (ERT) 8 th TIGGE Working Group Meeting 22 -24 February 2010, Geneva
New approaches for verifying TCs • Spatial verification methods Precipitation and wind fields Storm characteristics • location • size • intensity • shape, etc.
Document on TC verification – commented literature review to be written this year Contents 1. Introduction 2. Verification strategy 3. Reference data 4. Verification methods 5. Reporting guidelines 6. Summary References Appendices: a. Brief description of scores b. Guidelines for computing aggregate statistics c. Confidence intervals for verification scores d. Examples of graphical verification products
CXML data exchange Recommendations from 2006 International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones The WMO should take all necessary action to: • improve the communication between operational centres and facilitate the dissemination of all tropical cyclone-related NWP products, such as the deterministic and ensemble forecasts (including the full set of ensemble runs), • make them available to all RSMCs, TCWCs and researchers in real-time. WMO should investigate the most appropriate ways to achieve this goal: • coordinate with the NWP and major operational centres (RSMCs and TCWCs) in order to define a set of resolvable tropical cyclone characteristics to be provided and timely disseminated by the NWP centres through the GTS (e. g. centre location, minimum sea level pressure, max wind, wind radii by quadrants, etc…) and define the appropriate standardised format, • and/or find a WMO-sponsored dedicated reference centre (similarly to what has been done with the Severe Weather Information Centre for the dissemination of the analysis and forecast products issued by the main operational centres) able to host and maintain a single global data base of the tropical cyclone forecasts originating from the different NWP centres.
Near real time cyclone data exchange • Data exchanged via FTP (some sites require registration) • TC data archived at NCAR at http: //dss. ucar. edu/datasets/ds 330. 3/ under 'Data Access' and 'Internet Download' • Data format is CXML (Cyclone XML), designed to exchange TC analyses, deterministic forecasts, and ensemble forecasts, http: //cawcr. gov. au/bmrc/projects/THORPEX/TC
CXML track availability – 11 Feb 2010 Provider Analysis Deterministic Ensemble CMA t=0 fcst MSC t=0 fcst KMA t=0 fcst STI t=0 fcst UKMO t=0 fcst JMA t=0 fcst NCEP t=0 fcst ECMWF Up to date?
Tropical Meteorological Research An update of possible consequences of climate change on tropical cyclones has been completed and published by the TC Panel’s Expert Team on Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Cyclones in the March 2010 issue of the peerreviewed journal Nature Geoscience. The experts concluded that the total number of tropical cyclones worldwide will likely either decrease or remain unchanged. However, a likely increase in tropical cyclone intensity means that the frequency of the strongest tropical cyclones will more likely than not increase under the projected warming scenarios. The e-print of the full article is now available online at: http: //www. wmo. int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/tmr/ETClimate. Impacts. On. TCs. html
Tropical Meteorological Research Relative to improvements in tropical cyclone tracks, progress in the prediction of the intensity and genesis of tropical cyclones by NWP systems has proven more difficult. Recent progress has been achieved by increasing model resolution. In addition, based on THORPEX research, there is strong evidence that targeted observations for tropical cyclones do have a beneficial impact and the resultant socio-economic benefit here can be large. To address these issues, TCP is working closely with WWRP to promote the research and developments (R&Ds) in tropical cyclone prediction and its application to operational forecasting. The two Programmes jointly organize various international forums on a regular basis with a view to strengthening the interactions between researchers and operational forecasters, including the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone (IWTC) and the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP). Efforts are also made for active involvement of researchers in the annual/biennial sessions of TCP regional bodies.
Tropical Meteorological Research The monsoon component has recently added three archive centres: 1. Centre for Monsoon Field Campaign Legacy Data Sets (Colorado State University, USA) 2. Monsoon Radar Meteorology Data Information Centre Radar Information Centre (Nagoya University, Japan) 3. Monitoring and Centre for Monitoring and Assessment System for Extreme Weather and Climate Events in Asia (Beijing Climate Centre-EAMAC, CMA)
Seventh International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VII) (15 -20 November 2010, La Réunion, France) The IWTC is one of WMO’s major quadrennial workshop series organized by WWRP and Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP). It is a special and unique gathering of tropical cyclone researchers and warning specialists from all regions affected by tropical cyclones, including those from Members belonging to the WMO TCP regional bodies. La Réunion, France The main objectives of these workshops are: 1) to examine current knowledge, forecasting and research trends on tropical cyclones from an integrated global perspective 2) to report on these aspects and to offer recommendations for future forecasting studies and research with special regard to the varying needs of different regions.
2 nd Meeting of the WMO/CAS Expert Team on Weather Modification Research (ET-WMR) National Center of Meteorology and Seismology (NCMS) Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE) 22 -24 March 2010 ØSeek support for a “WMO Expert Meeting on a Scientific Review of the Statement on Weather Modification” and organize a meeting in Geneva scheduled for October 2010. ØSeek ET-WMR advice and plan a meeting to draft a statement on “lessons learned” on geo-engineering by the WMR community. Ø 10 th WMO Scientific Conference and Forum on Weather Modification (2012, Indonesia)
Bull. Amer. Met. Soc. , October 2010 • Toward a seamless process for the prediction of weather and climate: the advancement of sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction Brunet, G. , M. A. Shapiro, B. Hoskins, M. Moncrieff, R. Dole, G. N. Kiladis, B. Kirtman, A. Lorenc, B. Mills, R. Morss, S. Polavarapu, D. Rogers, J. Schaake, and J. Shukla. • Addressing the complexity of the Earth system Nobre, Carlos, Guy P. Brasseur, Melvyn A. Shapiro, Myanna Lahsen, Gilbert Brunet, Antonio J. Busalacchi, Kathy Hibbard, Kevin Noone and Jean Ometto. • An Earth-system prediction initiative for the 21 st century Shapiro, Melvyn A. , Jagadish Shukla, Gilbert Brunet, Carlos Nobre, Michel Béland, Randall Dole, Kevin Trenberth, Richard Anthes, Ghassem Asrar, Leonard Barrie, Philippe Bougeault, Guy Brasseur, David Burridge, Antonio Busalacchi, Jim Caughey, Delaing Chen, John Church, Takeshi Enomoto, Brian Hoskins, Øystein Hov, Arlene Laing , Hervé Le Treut, Jochem Marotzke, Gordon Mc. Bean, Gerald Meehl, Martin Miller, Brian Mills, John Mitchell, Mitchell Moncrieff, Tetsuo Nakazawa, Haraldur Olafsson, Tim Palmer, David Parsons, David Rogers, Adrian Simmons, Alberto Troccoli, Zoltan Toth, Louis Uccellini, Christopher Velden and John M. Wallace. • Toward a new generation of world climate research and computing facilities Shukla, J. , T. N. Palmer, R. Hagedorn, J. Kinter, J. Marotzke, M. Miller and J. Slingo
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