World Weather Research Programme WWRP Report Gilbert Brunet

World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Report Gilbert Brunet WWRP/JSC Chair CAS MG meeting, 15 -17 November 2011 Madrid, Spain

Long-term objectives of the WWRP • To improve public safety and economic productivity by accelerating research on the prediction of high-impact weather; • To demonstrate improvements in the prediction of weather, with emphasis on high-impact events through the exploitation of advances in scientific understanding, observational network design, data assimilation and modelling techniques and information systems; • To improve understanding of atmospheric processes of importance to weather forecasting through the organization of focused research programmes (e. g. , WWRP Strategic Plan, RDPs); • To encourage the utilization of relevant advances in weather prediction systems to the benefit of all WMO Programmes and all Members (e. g. , FDPs) • To maintain a strong focus on training opportunities for young scientists, in particular from developing countries, so that as many countries as possible will be able to contribute to and benefit from the research advances. 2

Highlights of WWRP The WWRP has promoted successfully important end-to-end integrated research, development and demonstration projects to advance understanding of high-impact weather processes, improve forecasting technique, establishing new databases, facilitate the transfer of research results into operational practice and better utilization of forecast products by end users. These are the • – THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE); – Beijing 08, Summer Olympic Games, China; – Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW V 10) project, Canada; ( legacy with FROST in Sochi 2014) BAMS 2010

Highlights of WWRP – International field campaign for tropical cyclones and targeting ATRe. C (Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign), THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (TPARC) and the USA Winter Storms Reconnaissance (WSR) flights; – Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC); – Sand Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (SDS‑WAS); – The Shanghai Multi-Hazard Early Warning System during the Shanghai World EXPO, China in 2010; – Establishment of three monsoon data centers (in Colorado State University, USA; in Nagoya University, Japan; and in Beijing Climate Center, CMA, China);

Highlights of WWRP • International Polar Year (IPY) THORPEX; 1 -D, blowing snow model snow 1 -D, multi-layer snow model Sea ice ocean • Mesoscale Alpine Project Demonstration-Phase (MAP D-Phase), Switzerland; • European Coordinated Experiments 2007 including the Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study (COPS). Showing the way to Integrated Mesoscale Research Environment (IMRE);

European Coordinated Experiments 2007 Convective and Orographicallyinduced Precipitation Study (COPS), WWRP) Research and Development Project (RDP) Period: 01. 06. – 31. 08. 2007 Wulfmeyer et al. BAMS 2008 General Observations Period (GOP Period: full year of 2007 GOP) (Crewell et al. Met. Zet 2008, submitted) Transport and Chemical Conversion in Convective Systems (COPS-TRACKS) Period: 16. 07. – 02. 08. 2007 Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Mobile Facility (AMF AMF) Period: 01. 04. – 31. 12. 2007 European THORPEX Regional Campaign 2007 (ETRe. C 2007) ETRe. C 2007 Period: 01. 07. – 01. 08. 2007 EUMETSAT special satellite operation modes and data Period: 01. 06. – 31. 08. 2007 (Aoshima et al. Met. Zet 2008, accepted) Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region (D-PHASE), WWRP Forecast and Demonstration Project (FDP) Period: 01. 06. – 30. 11. 2007 (Rotach et al. BAMS 2008, submitted)

Ongoing and possible future initiatives and RDP/FDP’s Ongoing: • COPS: convective orographic precipitation study (nearly completed, final workshop spring 2012) • FROST-14: high-resolution deterministic and probabilistic forecasting and nowcasting in support of Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics • Participation in HYMEX TTM 4: data assimilation and predictability • WGNE Grey Zone project Possible future RDP’s: • TOMACS: Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convective Study: attempt to engage international community in an urban meteorology RDP • Tropical cyclone modelling 8 JWGFVR - WG-MWFR meeting, 10 September 2011

4 th International Verification Methods Workshop (Finnish Meteorological Institute; June 2009) Tutorial • 26 students – 24 countries; many from SWFDP countries • 3 days • Lectures and hands-on (took tools home) • Group projects - presented at workshop Workshop • ~100 participants • Topics: Ensembles, Users, Spatial methods, Tools, Uncertainty, Weather warning verification, Evaluation of seasonal and climate predictions • 5 th International Verification Methods Workshop (Melbourne, Australia, 1 -7 December, 2011)

Highlights of WWRP • The WWRP has established new organisational structures and has promoted activities to support WMO Strategic thrust by: – establishing the WWRP Societal and Economic Research and Applications (SERA) Working Group to advance the science of the social and economic application of weather-related information and services in collaboration with ICSU Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) Institute; – participating in the EC-Research Task Team report on the “Challenges and opportunities in research to enable improved products and new services in climate, weather, water and environment. ”.

WWRP - General • Implementation of the CAS-XV decision to establish a new 10 member WWRP Joint Scientific Committee (WWRP/JSC) to oversee the scientific progress and development of the WWRP. JSC

JSC Committee Members • • Chairman of the Joint Scientific Committee for OPAG-WWRP Gilbert BRUNET, Environment Canada, Dorval, Québec, gilbert. brunet@ec. gc. ca AFIESIMAMA Ernest ernafies@yahoo. com DOLE Randy randall. m. dole@noaa. gov DUCROCQ Veronique veronique. ducrocq@meteo. fr GOLDING Brian. golding@metoffice. gov. uk MILLER Martin martin. miller@ecmwf. int LEE Dong-Kyou dklee@snu. ac. kr SAULO Celeste saulo@cima. fcen. uba. ar SMITH Neville n. smith@bom. gov. au PARSONS David dparsons@ou. edu

WWRP - General • The completion of the first Strategic Plan for the Implementation of WMO’s World Weather Research Programme (WWRP): 2009 – 2017 (WMO/TD-No. 1505). • The WWRP strategic plan integrates WMO Member activities in THORPEX, tropical meteorology, mesoscale weather forecasting, nowcasting, verification and societal and economic applications with those of partners in global and regional forecast research and Earth observation. • The plan maintains and reinforces the traditional strong links with GAW, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and other WMO activities. • Implementation activities outlined in the first Strategic Plan will address cross cutting activities at the interface of nowcating-mesoscale, mesoscale-global and weather-climate prediction research, research-operations that are related to the delivery of a weather and climate services; in particular, ensemble weather prediction systems, tropical convection, polar prediction; and sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction.

2011 WMO Congress: Future of WWRP • 3. 3. 40 Legacy of THORPEX – “mid-term review of the THORPEX Programme. ” – “THORPEX had become an integral component of the WWRP focusing on global scales and that the WWRP should fulfill the THORPEX high priority research activities for the next biennium if and when contributions to the THORPEX trust fund begin to “tail off” towards the end of the ten-year period of the programme. ” • 3. 3. 41 An Earth-system Prediction Initiative – “ WWRP community needs to participate in the establishment of the international Earth-system Prediction Research Initiative in order to accelerate advances in weather, climate and Earth-system prediction. ” – “ Elements of the Initiative are introduced in a compendium of papers that appeared in the October 2010 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS)”

2011 WMO Congress: Future of WWRP • 3. 3. 43 An Earth-system Prediction Initiative – Congress recognized that the proposed initiative needs to be aligned and built on the projects already initiated by WWRP and THORPEX on sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts and polar research or endorsed like HYMEX. – Two important components of this initiative have been discussed: • (i) Earth-system Interdisciplinary Summer School Program: a first step toward informing the next generation of the excitement and opportunities of the research and multifaceted deliverables at the forefront of society; and • (ii) the first WWRP Earth-system Open Science Conference.

2010 -11 WWRP meetings • 5 th International Verification Methods Workshop (Melbourne, Australia, 1 -7 December) • Meeting of WG SERA (Beijing, China 31 October-2 November 2011) • WMO Joint WG Nowcasting Research and WG Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research Workshop on the use of NWP for Nowcasting (Boulder, CO, USA 24 -26 October 2011) • WCRP Open Science Conference (Denver, USA, 24 -28 October) Session B 1: Prediction from Subseasonal to Multi-decadal Scales (conveners: D. Anderson, G. Brunet, B. Kirtman, I. -S. Kang) • WMO/WWRP International Workshop on Rapid Change in Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Track (Xiamen, China, 18 -20 October 2011) • WMO/WWRP Monsoon Heavy Rainfall Workshop (Beijing, China, 1214 October 2011) • Meeting of the WG on Tropical Meteorology Research (Beijing, China, 10 -11 October 2011) • 9 th Meeting of the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee (Geneva, WMO Headquaters, 21 -22 September 2011)

2010 -11 WWRP meetings • 9 th THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE WG meeting (Geneva, WMO Headquarters, 31 August - 2 September 2011) • Fourth Meeting of the THORPEX DAOS Working Group (Exeter, UK, 27 -28 June 2011) • Fourth meeting of the THORPEX Predictability and Dynamical Processes Working Group (ECMWF, UK, 21 June 2011) • Workshop on "Representing model uncertainty and error in numerical weather and climate prediction models" (ECMWF, UK, 20 -24 June 2011); • THORPEX European Regional meeting (Karlsruhe, Germany, 24 -27 May); • YOTC International Science Symposium and 8 th AMY International Workshop (Beijing, China, 16 -19 May 2011) • Fourth meeting of the WWRP JSC (Geneva, WMO Headquarters, 21 -24 February) ; • Joint WWRP-THORPEX / World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) workshop on “Subseasonal to seasonal prediction”, United Kingdom in 2010; • WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Workshop, “Improvement of Weather and Environmental Prediction in Polar Regions”, Norway in 2010.

• Thank you! • Merci!