World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather climate

World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO 2 nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial Management of Large-scale Catastrophes Session 1: Learning from the past and looking ahead: Thailand South East Asia five years after the tsunami, and facing the threats of global warming. Role of WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Disaster Risk Reduction Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph. D. Chief of WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme September 24, 2009, Bangkok, Thailand www. wmo. int

AGENDA 1. After Tsunami 2. Managing Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate related risks 3. Role of Hydro. Met Services in Disaster Risk Management – Risk assessment – Risk Reduction and Early Warning Systems – Risk Transfer 4. WMO initiatives

Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004 • Ocean based Tsunami observing system installed (UNESCOIOC) • 2 international Tsunami Watch Centers designated (JMA, PTWC) • WMO Global Telecommunication System updated in 8 countries Ø All countries receive Tsunami Watch under 5 minute • All countries in Indian Ocean have National Focal Points for Tsunami watch BUT Disaster risk management and emergency preparedness in most countries is still reactive and remain to be addressed

Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980 -2007) in South and South-East Asia 90% of events 55% of casualties 84% of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions. Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www. em-dat. net Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc Bangladesh, Buthan, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Philippines, Singapore, Sri. Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam

Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters, Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural hazards (1980 -2007) Number of events Loss of life Economic Losses Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

Climate change impact in South and South East Asia IPCC 4 th Assessment Report (2007) • Increase in occurrence in extreme weather events: heat waves and intense precipitation events • Increase of 10 -20 % in Tropical Cyclones intensities for a rise of sea surface temperature of 2 to 4 degrees • Expansion of areas under severe water stress • Increased flooding risks during wet season and possibilities of water shortage in dry season on the Mekong river • Sea level rise could flood the residence of millions of people in the low-level areas (Vietnam, Bangladesh and India) • Increased in climate related diseases (diarrhea and malnutrition, infectious diseases such as cholera)

How WMO’s Research and Operational Network of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services support Disaster Risk Management WMO leverages global, regional, national cooperation to ensure development and availability of meteorological, hydrological and climate services at the national level.

WMO has been coordinating International Research Programmes in Weather and Climate World Climate Research Programme, World Weather Research Programme Northern Atlantic Oscillation Operational forecasting systems Pacific Decadal Oscillation IPCC Assessments UNFCCC negotiations

WMO Coordinates a Global Network for Monitoring, Detection and Forecasting of Hazards Operated by National Meteorological Services 2 Global Observing System 4 1 National Meteorological & Hydrological 3 Services Global Data Processing and Forecasting Global Telecommunication System

Communication and Dissemination of Processed information 5 National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Examples: 6 Global Tropical Cyclone and Storm Watch System Emergency Response Activities Drought Monitoring and Forecasting Media General public Government and civil defence authorities Private sector

WMO Network Supports National Early Warning Systems such as the Cyclone Preparedness Programme in Bangladesh

WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme was established in 2003 to … Leverage WMO’s Research and Operational Network and partnerships to support disaster risk reduction at the national level in a more comprehensive and coordinated manner

Hyogo Framework for Action… … change in paradigm of DRM • Traditionally, disaster risk management has been focused on post disaster response in most countries! • Adoption of Hyogo Framework for Action in 2005 is leading to a new paradigm in disaster risk management involving investments in preparedness and prevention through risk assessment, risk reduction and risk transfer …. Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM would require meteorological, hydrological and climate information and services!

Comprehensive National Disaster Risk Management Programmes Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Risk Identification Hazard databases Hazard statistics 1 Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools Risk Reduction PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning Risk Transfer CAT insurance & bonds 2 MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e. g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) 3 Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training

WMO Action Plan for Disaster strengthening Risk Reduction at national and regional level 1. Modernized Hydromet Services and observing networks. 2. Strengthened national operational multi-hazard early warning systems. 3. Strengthened hazard analysis and hydro-meteorological risk assessment capacities. 4. Strengthened Hydromet Services cooperation and partnerships with civil protection and disaster risk management agencies. 5. Trained management and staff of Hydromet Services 6. Enhanced ministerial and public awareness

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Assessment Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Risk Identification Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools Risk Reduction PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e. g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) Risk Transfer CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Assessment Provision of hazard data and analysis to support risk assessment: – Historical and real-time hazard databases and metadata – Hazard analysis and mapping methodologies – Forward looking hazard trend analysis • Short- to Medium-term weather forecasts • Probabilitic climate models

Number of Countries Maintaining some sort of Hazard Data Archives • • • Very few countries maintain impact databases Data archived are not standardised 90 % of NMHS indicated need for guidelines and support in hazard analysis, mapping and statistics (WMO DRR survey)

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Reduction Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Risk Identification Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools Risk Reduction PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e. g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) Risk Transfer CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training

Economic losses related to disasters are on the way up While casualties related to hydrometeorological disasters are decreasing Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

In many countries, early warning systems are not an integral part of disaster risk management National to local governments ng NATIONAL SERVICES h a az rd ni ar w Meteorological Hydrological Geological Marine Health (etc. )… hazard warning po s re t-dis sp as on te se r Communities at risk

What is an Effective EWS? 1 ck fee Meteorological Marine Health (etc. ) 3 3 3 warnings Hydrological Geological wa s ing arn w 5 supported by DRR plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms a db COORDINATION AMONG NATIONAL SERVICES Community Preparedness National to local governments 5 2 4 5 feedback rn feedback pr ev ac ent tio ive ns in gs

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Risk Identification Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools Risk Reduction PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e. g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) Risk Transfer CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets • Availability and accessibility of historical and realtime data • Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, homogenization and analysis • Reliable and authoritative data for contract design and settlement • Forecasts for management of risk portfolio • Technical support and service delivery

Challenges at different levels Ø Building, strengthening and sustaining the meteorological/climate observing networks, data management and forecasting systems are resource intensive and not on the radar screen of many governments! Ø Servicing Financial Risk Transfer markets is a “new” field for Meteorological and Hydrological Services!

Addressing these Challenges at different levels Ø Need to make a business case for the need for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services with their governments (e. g. , investments in meteorological capacities is an investment towards improved risk managment and development) Ø Initiate systematic modenization/data rescue/capacity development of Met Services with a sustainability plan Ø Raise awareness of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services on emerging opportunities such as « weather-indexed Insurance » (based on lessons learnt from demonstrated pilots) Ø Engage National Meteorological and Hydrlogical Services as Partners Ø Standardization of core meteorlogical/hydrological/climate products

Progress with Catastrophe (CAT) Insurance / Bond and Weather Risk Management Markets Catastrophe Insurance and Bond Markets European Agricultural Risk Weather Risk Management Markets (ART) Hydro Electric Power Risk Contracts Wind Power Risk Contracts CAT Bond Markets post Hurricane Andrew UK Flood CAT Bond Southeastern Europe Disaster Risk management Project & Southeastern and Central European Risk Insurance Facility Indian Agricultural Risk Heating Degree Day Contracts Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility Drought Risk Management in Ethiopia Malawi Drought Risk Management Pacific Risk Insurance Facility

Key Questions: 1) Can National Meteorological and Hydrological Services meet these demands? 2) How to engage National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the DRR planning and implementation to generate demand for their services?

Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Assessing Capacities, Gaps and Needs of National Meteorological Services to support disaster risk management: 1. National policies and legislation 2. Infrastructure & institutional capacities in monitoring, forecasting, communications 3. Hazard databases 4. Forecasting and Warning Capacities 5. Human resources (technical, managerial) 6. Operational partnerships with disaster risk management stakeholders

Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country Responses 44/48 92 % 18/22 82 % 25/34 74 % 10/12 83 % 24/52 54 % 14/19 74 % 139 /187 Countries responded 74% response rate http: //www. wmo. int/pages/prog/drr/nat. Reg. Cap_en. html

Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country Responses Number of surveys received Total number of countries % Response Global (WMO Members) 139 187 74% Developing countries 85 137 62% Least Developed countries 25 50 50% Africa (RA I) 28 52 54% Asia (RA II) 25 34 74% South America (RA III) 10 12 83% Central and North America (RA IV) 18 22 82% South-West Pacific (RA V) 14 19 74% Europe (RA VI) 44 48 92% Scope

Country-Level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Under estimated Planning & Category Legislation Infrastructure: Observation Forecasting Telecom. Data, Analysis and Technical Capacities Partnerships & Concept of Operations % countries 1 Need for development in all areas 12 2 Need for improvements in all areas 42 3 4 Self sufficient Need for improvements in these areas Self sufficient Could benefit from sharing of good practices and guidelines 26 20 Around 60% of the NMHS are challenged in meeting needs in DRM!

WMO is Establishing Strategic Partnerships with Agencies that Influence the National DRM Programmes and Funding Partners World Bank (GFDRR) ISDR UNDP Agency Type Development Coordination Development X X National DRR Implementation Funding X Coordination X X X WFP, FAO Humanitarian Development X X UN- OCHA Humanitarian X X IFRC Humanitarian X X Donors (EC, etc) Donor X

WMO is addressing this challenge through national and regional projects with World Bank, UNDP, ISDR and others • Partnerships and ‘User-driven’service delivery • Modernization of infrastructures (when needed) – observing networks, forecasting and communication • Data rescue and managment systems • Technical training – Analysis and forecasting tools and methodologies Generating demand for Meteorological and Hydrological Services with the goal to direct sustainable government funding overtime for further improving and sustaining of these services

Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects (2007 -2011)

Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects (Europe) DRR Pilot South East Europe: 8 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) DRR Pilot South East Asia: 5 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) (Asia-Pacific) End-to-end EWS Pilot Central America: 3 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO, NOAA, IFRC) (North America & Carribeans) (South America) DRR Pilot Central Asia and Caucasus: 7 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) (Asia) Shanghai Mega City Multi Hazard-EWS demo (Africa) Sever weather/Flash Flood Guidance /storm watch technical training (SADC) 2007 2008 2009 2010 End-to-end EWS 2011

World Bank, ISDR, WMO initiative in South East Asia Initiated in 2009 Goal: to strengthen institutional cooperation and coordination in • Risk Management Capacities • Hydro meteorological services Lao Vietnam Cambodia Philippines Indonesia Phase I: Fact finding assessment and development of national and regional reports (Funded by GFDRR) (underway)

Trends and patterns of hazard are changing due to climate change (IPCC) Statistical analysis of historical data is only first estimate. Needs forward looking information to augment statistical hazard analysis and mapping

Droughts Climate variability and change and their impacts are not uniform geographically Trends in heavy rainfall Trends in Frost and Heat Waves Need for production of local climate information… Highly Resource Intensive! (IPCC, 2007) IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007

Global/Regional/National Cooperation Framework For Provisions of Climate Services Four Major Thrusts: • Understanding of information needs of at-risk sectors – Through partnerships (with UN, international and regional agencies) • Designation and coordination of network of global and regional climate centers – to faciliate provision of forecasting and analysis tools and information to national centers • Strengthen observation networks • More targeted climate research

Global/Regional Network of WMO Designated Climate Centers ECMWF Exete r Montre al Mosco w Beijin g Toulous e Washingt on Gobal Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs) Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) RCC Network Nodes (Pilot) Seou l Toky o Lead Centre for LRFMME Pretoria Melbour ne Lead Centre for SVSLRF: Standardized Verification System for Long Range Forecasts LRFMME: Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble CLW/CLPA/WC AS

World Climate Conference-3 Better climate information for a better future Geneva, Switzerland 31 August– 4 September 2009

Climate Risk management Project in Africa WMO/World Bank Project in Africa Funded by GFDRR • Countries: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda • Objectives: Development of climate information based on observations and latest climate tools and forecasting technologies • Sectors: Agriculture and water resource management • Timeline of data: Different climate scales up to 20 years: • Partners – National: NMHS, sectors representatives – International/Regional: World Bank, – Technical: Global. Climate Centers (US, UK, ECMWF, Pretoria) and Regional centers (IGAD) • Status: Project was launch on June 21 • World Bank project manager: Amal Talbi-Jordan

Thank You For more information please contact: Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph. D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme World Meteorological Organization Tel. 41. 22. 730. 8006 Fax. 41. 22. 730. 8023 Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO. int http: //www. wmo. int/disasters

Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate Energy Water Resource Management Transport Strong Wind Intensity Food security Health Coastal Marine Hazards Tropical Cyclones Hazards’ intensity and frequency are increasing Industry Urban areas Heavy rainfall / Flood Heatwaves Frequency Volnurability and Exposure on the rise ! Need for disaster risk management

A comprehensive approach to DRR is critical for reducing risks Hyogo Framework for Action 2005 -2015 (World Conference on Disaster Reduction) WMO Strategic Plan 2008 -2015 (Top Level Objectives and Five Strategic Thrusts) Consultations with WMO governing bodies, Regional and National network and partners WMO strategic priorities in Disaster Risk Reduction