World Meteorological Organization OMM WMO Working together in

World Meteorological Organization OMM WMO Working together in weather, climate and water WMO OMM Early Warning Systems Dr. Maryam Golnaraghi Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme World Meteorological Organization 29 -30 May 2013 Skopje, Macedonia www. wmo. int

Outline OMM WMO 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Impacts of meteorological, hydrological and climate-related Hazards The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005 – 2015 A Comprehensive National Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction What is an Early Warning Systems? Examples of Good Practices in EWS 10 common principles for successful EWS International and Regional Cooperation in Science and technology to support Early Warning Systems Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 2

OMM WMO South-East Europe (Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo (as defined by UNSCR 1244/99), and Turkey) Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 3 Main

South-East Europe OMM WMO Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data 4

South-East Europe OMM WMO Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www. em-dat. be Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data 5

South-East Europe OMM WMO Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data 6

South-East Europe OMM WMO 2003 Summer heat wave: 788 deaths in Croatia Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data 7

South-East Europe OMM WMO Forest fire in Croatia in 1983: $US 0. 5 billion Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data 8

Hyogo-Framework for Action 2005 -2015 in a nut shell… OMM WMO Governance and Institutional Framework (Policy, Legislation, legal framework, institutional coordination) 2 (Multi-sector, Multi-level, Multi-Hazard) Risk Assessment QUANTITATIVE MULTIHAZARD-MULTILEVEL, MULTI-SECTOR 1 RISK ANALYSIS Hazard, exposure and vulnerability databases Statistical and forward looking approaches 6 Risk Financing and Transfer Risk Reduction PREPAREDNESS & RESPONSE: early warning systems emergency planning 3 Gov Investments, trust funds (ex-ante, post disaster) CAT insurance & bonds 4 PREVENTION and MITIGATION: Sectoral Medium to long term planning (e. g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture…) Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Information and Knowledge Sharing Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai Education and training 2009 5 9 © World Meteorological Organization

A Multi-Sector, Multi Level Issue OMM WMO • Policy and legislative process (Roles and responsibilities) • Early Warning Systems development and on-going operations with Disaster Risk Management and local Communities with a sustainability approach • Socio-economic sectors: – – – – Transport (air, land, water) Agriculture and food security Water Resource Management Land zoning Infrastructure and urban planning Health Tourism Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 10

South-East Europe OMM WMO Multi-Hazard Issue Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www. em-dat. be Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data 11

OMM WMO Understanding the Risks Provides the Foundation for Preventing Disaster Risks! Hazard Analysis and Mapping Exposure and Vulnerability Potential Loss Estimates Number of lives at risk This information is critical for decision-making and development of strategies to reduce the risks $ at risk Heavy Precipitation and flood mapping Need for historical and real time data Statistical analysis tools climate forecasts and trend analysis Impacts: ü population density ü agricultural land ü urban grid üInfrastructure üBusinesses üDestruction of buildings and infrastructure üReduction in crop yields üBusiness interruption Need for Socio. Need for risk assessment economic impacts tools combining hazard, asset data and analysis Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 12 and exposure information tools 2009

Early Warning Systems Require Coordination Across Many Levels and Agencies OMM WMO National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms 1 3 2 4 Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 13

OMM WMO Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 14

OMM WMO Many countries are still in response and relief mode! COMMUNITIES AT RISK National Government (emergency systems) Local government ard w haz Meteorological rd a haz ing arn w Disaster response National Technical Services arni n g disaster response Hydrological Geological hazard warning Marine Health (etc. )… Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 15

There is need for investments in all Components of Early Warning Systems at national to local levels OMM WMO 1 National Government DRR coordination mechanisms Aligned policies, plans, resources, coordination 4 bac feed war 4 ning s k warnings feedback 5 5 Capacity Development and Coordinated National Technical Agencies 2 Meteorological Hydrological Local Government responsible for emergency preparedness and response 3 Community Prepared 4 warnings feedback Geological Marine Health, Agricuture (etc. ) 5 Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 16

Weather, Climate and Hydrological Services to support DRR Decision-Making Other National Agencies Involved in DRR a (e. g. Hydrological Services, Ocean Services, Health Services, Space) National DRR Governance and Institutional Frameworks OMM WMO National e Agreements & SOPs National Meteorological Service (NMS) Core Operatioinal Components Ø Ø Ø Observing network Operational Forecasting Telecommunications d Human Resource Data Management Systems Etc. . . Data, Forecast, Analysis Products & Services for: Ø Risk Analysis c Ø Early Warnnings Ø Sectoral Planning Disaster Risk Financing and insurance Quality Managment Systems (QMS) e National DRR Stakeholders b Requirments Service Delivery Feedback Agreements & SOPs Ø Ø Ø Ø Government (national to local) Socio-economi sectors Private Sector NGOs General Public Media Etc. . . GTS/WIS Agreements & SOPs Regional f Global & Regional Specialized Meteorological & Climate Centers (GPC, RSMC and RCC) Regional. DRR Governance and Institutional Frameworks

Example of cooperation of NMS with technical and EWS stakeholders in context of different hazard types OMM WMO Increasing level of operational coordination with primary coordinators of emergency preparedness and response Type III Hazard fully under the mandate of NMS Hazard under joint mandate of NMS with another technical agency (e. g. , NHS) Hazard under mandate of other agencies but NMS contribute e. g. strong winds, strong rainfall, snow/ice, hail, tropical cyclone e. g. floods, landslides, heat/health etc. e. g. locust, health epidemic, man-made hazards Increasing Level of operational coordination and cooperation with other national technical and sectoral agencies for early detection, monitoring and Présentation pour of warnings 18 development F Jacq - 11 mai 2009

OMM WMO Examples of Good practices in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems and Lessons Learned • Bangladesh • Cuba • French Vigilance system • Germany • Japan • Shanghai (Mega City) • USA Ref. Golnaraghi, M. (Ed. ) “Institutional Partnerships in Multi. Hazard Early Warning Systems: FA compilation of Seven National Présentation pour Jacq - 11 mai 19 2009 Good Practices and Guiding Principles, ” Springer Verlag (2012)

OMM WMO Ten common principles for successful EWS Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 20

OMM WMO 10 common principles for successful Early Warning Systems (1/2) 1. Political recognition of the benefits of EWS along with effective planning, legislation and budgeting 2. Effective EWS are built upon four components: 3. Roles and responsibilities of all EWS stakeholders and their collaboration mechanisms clearly defined and documented 4. Capacities aligned with resources across national to local levels (sustainability) 5. Hazard, exposure and vulnerability information are used to carry-out risk assessmentspour Fdifferent levels Présentation at Jacq - 11 mai 21 (i)) hazard detection, monitoring and forecasting; (ii) analyzing risks and incorporation of risk information in emergency planning and warnings; (iii) disseminating timely and “authoritative” warnings with clarity on the responsibilities and mandate for issuance of warnings; (iv) community emergency planning and preparedness and the ability to activate emergency plans to prepare and respond 2009

OMM WMO 6. 7. 8. 9. 10 common principles for successful Early Warning Systems (2/2) Clear, consistent and actionable hazard warnings, with risk information and issued from a single recognized authoritative source Timely, reliable, redundant and sustainable warning dissemination mechanisms Emergency response plans targeted to the individual needs of the vulnerable communities, authorities and emergency responders Regular training and education programmes in risk awareness and emergency response actions 10. Effective feedback mechanisms throughout levels of the EWS for system improvement over time Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 22

OMM WMO International and Regional Cooperation in Science and technology to support Early Warning Systems Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 23

OMM WMO Leverages International and Regional Cooperation: Coordinates Operation Meteorological Network to support National Meteorological and Hydrological Services 189 Members Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 24

Global/Regional Operational Network of WMO OMM WMO Moscow Exeter ECMWF Montreal Beijing Toulouse DMCSEE Washingto n Seoul Tokyo LCLRFMME ACMAD ICPAC CIIFEN Pretoria Gobal Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs) Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) SADCDMC Melbourne LCSVSLRF RCC Network Nodes (Pilot) Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres with Activity Specialization LC-SVSLRF: Lead Centre for Standardized Verification System for Long Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres with Geographical Specialization Range Forecasts Regional climate institutions with strong WMO support LC-LRFMME: Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble Sand & Dust Storm Warning & Assessment System Centres Monsoon Activity Centres Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 25

OMM WMO Regional harmonization, interoperability of national early warning systems is critical to managing trans-boundary hazards and sustainability of national systems Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 26

OMM WMO Thank You For more information please contact: Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph. D. Chief Disaster Risk Reduction Programme World Meteorological Organization Tel. +41. 22. 730. 8006 Email. MGolnaraghi@wmo. int Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 27

Example 1: France Vigilance System + Flood warning map OMM WMO Hazards Strong wind Level of warning Strong rainfall Level 4 Thunderstorm Level 3 Snow/Ice Level 2 Avalanches Level 1 Heat waves Initiated in coordination by Météo. France and French civil security, Vigilance system activates cascades of preparedness and response plans, actions and responsibilities Legislation Planning Organizational linkages Training and feedback national to local authorities

Example 2: USA Multi-Hazard Early Warning System OMM WMO • The U. S. National Response Framework (NRF) provides the guiding principles that enable all response partners to deliver a unified national response to disasters and emergencies, Maintained by the U. S. Department of Homeland Security’s Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Saving Lives Through Partnerships NOAA TEAM PARTNERS END USERS Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai “America’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting 2009 Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life” Lives, 29

Example 3: Japan Multi-Hazard Early Warning System OMM WMO Information Sharing System based on Advanced IT Infrastruc 　　　　 FDMA Satellite network Predigested maps and information Zoom up the area of concern 　　 ○○市大雨警報発表中 Prefecture Prefectural LAN Disaster prevention information system JMA City 　　　　 　 Data Format for Cell. Phone Services Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 Cell-phone Volunteer fire 30 fighter

Example 4: Germany - Warning Management of the Deutscher Wetterdienst OMM WMO • a 3 -tiered warning management system (time dimension) that differentiates between 5 risk levels Prewarning 48 to 6 h ahead for preparation only in case of expected severe weather warning (Severe) Weather Warning 12 to 0 h ahead The spatial and the timely Regional hazard bulletin scale of all warning information 24 h ahead are closely connected updated 4 times per day Early Warning Hazard Bulletin for Germany daily updated 7 to 2 days ahead • Fe. WIS a customized information platform- one system for different authorities – developed in co-operation with disaster management organisations Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 31

OMM WMO Example 5: Shanghai City Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Emergency Response Programme (Mega City) Multi-Hazard, Multi-Agency, Grass root

Example 6: Cuba Cyclone Early Warning OMM WMO Small country, 99% access to media (radio & TV), coordinated top-down warning and response mechanisms Warning

Example 7: Cyclone Preparedness Programme in Bangladesh OMM WMO

OMM WMO International Attention to Early Warning Systems with Multi-Hazard Approach (1/2) • First International Early Warning Conferences (Potsdam, 1998) (http: //www. geomuseum. com/ewc 98/) • Second World Summit on Sustainable Development (Johannesburg, 2002) – Johannesburg Plan of Implementation • Second International Early Warning Conferences (Bonn, 2003) (http: //www. ewc 2. org/pg 000001. htm) – Platform for Promotion of Early Warnings • World Conference on Disaster Reduction (Kobe, January 2005) – Hyogo Framework for Action 2005 -2015 • G 8 Summit and UN General Assembly (2005, 2006) Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 35

EWS References OMM WMO • M. Golnaraghi (ed) (2012), “Institutional Partnership in Multihazard Early Warning Systems: A Compilation of Seven National Good Practices and Guiding Principles, Book Published by Springer Verlag (2012) • Golnaraghi, M. , J. Douris, J. B. Migraine (2008), “Saving Lives Through Early Warning Systems and Emergency preparedness, ” Risk Wise, Published by Tutor Rose, Page 137 -141. • Golnaraghi, M. , J. Douris, C. Baubion (2011), “Good Practices in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems, ” Risk Returns, Published by Tutor Rose, Page 95 -97 Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 36