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WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT MAIN FINDINGS
The World Energy Assessment Established in 1998 by UNDP, DESA, WEC l Will serve as input to CSD-9 preparatory process, CSD-9 and beyond (Rio +10) l Two phases: l l Editorial phase: Collaborative effort to provide scientific and technical analysis for the report and discussions – September 1998 - August 2000 l Consultative and Outreach phase: Provide input to editorial phase and disseminate findings and encourage discussion and debate – April 1999 - April 2001 l Funding: Austria, Norway, Finland, Sweden, the Energy Foundation and the United Nations Foundation
World Primary Energy Use, 1998 EJ Fossil Fuels oil natural gas coal Renewables large hydro traditional “new” ren. Nuclear Total EJ % 320 80 56 14 26 402 6 100 142 85 93 9 38 9
Present Energy Consumption Primary Energy Consumption Industrialized Countries Population: 1. 34 billion % of fossil fuels: 81% Energy = 6, 701 x 106 toe 5. 0 toe/capita Developing Countries Population: 4. 56 billion % of fossil fuels: 70% Energy = 3, 861 x 106 toe 0. 85 toe/capita
Issues related to the present energy system Energy approaches affect many important issues: • Social • Economic • Environmental and Health • Security
Investments in Energy Supply Issue: Mobilization of capital for energy supply investments • Investment in energy supply projected at $300 -500 billion per year for the next 20 years, depending on path chosen • Less than 10% of total overall investments
Oil Imports as Share of Export Earnings in Various Developing Countries, 1985 -97 Source: World Bank, 1999
Energy and Development • 2 billion people have no access to electricity and an additional 2 billion people have access to unreliable electricity. • 2 billion people cook using traditional fuels.
Energy and Women Heavy burden on millions of women and children: • Millions are spending hours a day carrying fuel and water • Millions are being exposed to high levels of indoor air pollution leading to premature deaths Example: The World Health Organization estimates that air pollution indoor causes 2. 7– 3. 0 million premature deaths a year, or 5– 6 percent of global mortality.
Environmental Degradation Energy activities contribute to indoor air pollution, urban air pollution, acidification and global warming: • 86% of anthropogenic emissions of sulphur dioxide • Greenhouse gas emissions: 78% of carbon dioxide, 23% of methane • A significant fraction of emissions of small particulate matter • Significant fractions of many other environmental challenges
Energy Resources • Conventional oil and gas could last at least 50 -100 years. • Total fossil fuel resources will last at least several hundreds of years There will be no resource-constraint driven transformation of the world energy system for a long time to come • Renewable energy flows are some 1000 times current global energy use
Oil imports in OECD, % 1996 2010 2020 North America Europe 45 63 63 53 74 85 Pacific 90 96 96 Total OECD 56 72 76
Towards a more Sustainable Future The linkages described lead to a demand for change of the present energy system development § The magnitude of the change required is not small § The challenge is to find a way forward that addresses all the issues simultaneously § A paradigm shift is needed
Sustainable Energy: Energy that is produced and used in ways that simultaneously support human development over the long-term in all its social, economic, and environmental dimensions
Technical Options for a more Sustainable Future • Improved Energy Efficiency - especially at the point of enduse in buildings, electric appliances, vehicles, and production processes. • More Renewable Energy: such as biomass, wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal • Advanced • next Energy Technologies: generation fossil fuel technologies • nuclear technologies, if the issues associated with nuclear can be resolved.
Outlook for More Efficient Use of Energy • Cost effective over the next 20 years to reduce primary energy consumed per unit of energy services • OECD Countries • Developing Countries • Economies in transition 25 -35% 30 - >45% >40% • Greater gains in efficiency feasible with advanced energy technologies that offer multiple benefits
Outlook for wind energy • • • Rapid global growth, 30% per year 14 GW total installed capacity in 1999 Rapid cost decline “Baseload” wind power possible Huge potential, remote from markets Multi-GW wind power plants + storage + HV transmission
Potential “Excess” Electricity from Sugarcane in Developing Countries 1995 Cane 2025 "Excess" 1995 Utility 2025 Cane Production Prod. @ 2%/yr Electricity Elec. Prod. Elec. /1995 (million tc) (TWh/year) (TWh) Utility Elec. Brazil 304 550 330 257 1. 3 India 260 470 282 364 0. 8 China 70 127 76 859 0. 09 Carribean 48 87 52 42 1. 2 Indonesia 31 57 34 58 0. 6 Other Latin Am. 152 275 165 438 0. 4 Others 233 422 253 912 0. 3 Totals 1098 1988 1192 2930 0. 4
Advanced Fossil Fuel Technology • Syngas • Technology for manufacturing H 2 from abundant and secure energy sources (e. g. coal) • H 2 competitive as energy carrier … need technologies that – put high market value on H 2 (e. g. fuel cells in transport) – reduce H 2 cost (e. g. H 2 separation membrane reactors) • H 2 must be produced centrally to minimize cost of CO 2 disposal • Large, widely available, secure, and environmentally acceptable storage capacity for CO 2 - geological storage options promising (depleted oil/NG fields, deep beds of unminable coal, deep saline aquifers)
Power systems • Optimal unit size declining, 30% of new capacity below 10 MW • Gas turbines, micro turbines, CHP, wind, solar, fuel cells, …. • Distributed generation, virtual utilities • Value of generation close to consumption higher than central station • Who looks after the “system”?
Energy for Rural Development Provision of clean liquid or gaseous fuels for cooking and of electricity for lighting and other basic commodities at the household level l l Provision of liquid fuels and electricity for mechanization of agriculture Provision of electricity that is sufficiently low in cost that it could attract industrial activity to rural areas l
Solutions to Rural Energy Needs Rural Eletrification The “centralized” approach: eletrification from grids has reached 800 million people in 20 years. Still 1, 800 million without access. The “decentralized” approach: l Diesel engine generator sets l Small-scale hydro Photovoltaics l Wind Small-scale wind l Small-scale biopower using producer gas
Electricity and LPG from Corn Stalks in Jilin Province, China • Rough cost estimate, LPG from corn stalks: – Stand alone production: ~ $15/GJ – Once-thru co-production: ~ $6/GJ (electricity sold for 5 c/k. Wh) (Retail LPG price in rural China: ~ $8/GJ) • LPG and electricity co-produced from available corn stalks (excluding those needed for soil conditioning and other non-energy uses) could meet current rural cooking fuel demand twice over and electric demand six times over.
Policies for Sustainable Energy An energy future compatible with sustainable development will not happen by itself, thus policy change is required, including: • Making markets work better, including mobilizing investments • Focusing on the innovation chain • Reforming the power sector • Increasing capacity to support policy and institution building, and transfer of technology
Making markets work better l Setting the right framework conditions (including continued market reform and appropriate regulatory measures and policies) to encourage competitiveness in energy markets and protect public benefits l Setting accurate price signals, including removal of subsidies to fossil fuel energy and some internalization of externalities (Subsidies of $100 - 200 billion/year to conventional energy. ) l Supporting technological leadership and capacity building in developing countries l Encouraging greater international cooperation
The Innovation Chain • • Research and Development Demonstration projects Early deployment (cost buy-down) Widespread dissemination
Experience curves for photovoltaics, windmills, and gas turbines
Policy options: cost-buy-down and dissemination Good ideas for policy implementation are gaining ground around the world Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) Subsidies with “sunset” clauses Concessions Retail financing Clean Development Mechanism
Some electricity policy issues • Grid access, IPPs – – • • Distributed generation Biomass power Wind energy concessions Small scale hydro End-use efficiency Net metering Competition and system responsibility Rural electrification
Developing countries • • Capacity building Policy support and institution building Good governance Investment-friendly environments, socially and environmentally responsible • Technological leap-frogging • Consumer credits, micro-finance • Education and training
WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT MAIN FINDINGS