WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project SWFDP and

WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) and its Future Directions A. Soares Scientific Officer WMO Data-processing and Forecasting Systems (DPFS) asoares@wmo. int WMO

Numerical simulations of the atmosphere “In general, the public is not aware that our daily weather forecasts start out as initial value problems on the major national weather services supercomputers. Numerical weather prediction provides the basic guidance for weather forecasting beyond the first few hours. ” - Eugenia Kalnay (2003) - From: “Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and predictability” Cambridge University Press, 2003, 5 th printing 2009

Why a project on severe weather forecasting? Mandate of NMHSs: To provide meteorological information for protection of life, livehoods and property, and conservation of the environment

Why a project on severe weather forecasting? Many NMHSs lack the infrastructural, technical, human and institutional capacities to provide high-quality meteorological services Infrastructural Capacities of Countries as of Aug 2010 to provide Basic, Essential, Full and Advanced Meteorological Services

Why a project on severe weather forecasting? § Dramatic developments in weather and climate prediction science § Leading to improved alerting of hydro-meteorological hazards, at ever-increased precision, reliability, and lead-times of warnings § Developing countries, including LDCs and SIDSs, saw little progress § Increasing gap in application of advanced technology in early warnings § WMO SWFDP attempts to close this gap, by applying the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’ (regional frameworks) ? 5

Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries “NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards. ” (World Meteorological Congress, 2007 and 2011) Implemented through the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) that applies the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’

‘Cascading Forecasting Process’ Global Centres ECMWF NOAA/NCEP, USA Exeter, UK National Centres Regional Centre RSMC Pretoria Users (DMCPA, sectors)

Main goals § Further implement the GDPFS through a three-level system – the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’ ü ü Improve collaborative work and international cooperation among operational centres at global, regional and national levels Improve the skill of products from WMO operational centres through feedback Continuous learning and modernization Address the needs of groups of “like-countries” § Improve lead-time of Warnings § Improve interaction of NMHSs with users § Identify areas for improvement and requirements for the Basic Systems

Main goals / contributions to WMO high priorities § Further implement the GDPFS through a three-level system – the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’ ü Improve collaborative work ü ü ü and international cooperation among operational centres at global, regional and national levels Improve the skill of products from WMO Operational centres through feedback Continuous learning and modernization Address the needs of groups of “like-countries” § Improve lead-time of Warnings § Improve interaction of NMHSs with users § Identify areas for improvement and requirements for the Basic Systems Capacity development Disaster risk reduction Climate change adaptation (GFCS) Socio-econ. Sectors (Ae. M, Ag. M, etc) Basic systems (WIGOS, WIS)

Regional project management and implementation I. Planning, partnerships and accountability ü Establishment of regional partnership (framework / team); Focus on forecasting and warning services of 2 or 3 top hazards for the region Preparation of regional project-specific IP Development of specific Website by RSMC Preparation of products by global and regional centres ü ü II. Implementation and execution ü ü III. Evaluation and broaden the prototype (return to I. and II. ) ü ü ü IV. typically 12 -18 months Tracking, continuously evaluation, feedback and verification, training and reporting More countries More hazards Synergies with other programmes Long-term sustainability and future development ü Responsibility for management lies with the region (e. g. MASA, EAC, PMC, etc. )

Regional projects

SWFDP – Southern Africa RSMC Pretoria Webportal Since 2006 ü 16 countries ü RSMC Pretoria ü RSMC-TC La Réunion ü ECMWF, NOAA/NCEP, UKMO 12

SWFDP Guidance Products from RSMC Pretoria § § § RSMC analysis forecast information Guidance every day for the next 5 days Hazards: heavy rain, strong wind, high seas and swell, severe winter weather Guidance info made available through dedicated Webpage to NMCs Links to RSMC La Réunion TC forecasting

SWFDP – Southwest Pacific RSMC Wellington Webportal Since 2009 ü 9 SIDSs ü RSMC Wellington ü RSMC-TC Nadi ü ABo. M, ECMWF, NOAA/NCEP, UKMO

SWFDP – Eastern Africa RSMC Nairobi Webportal Since 2011 ü 6 countries ü RSMC Nairobi ü RFSC Dar (Lake Victoria) ü DWD, ECMWF, NOAA/NCEP, UKMO

SWFDP – Southeast Asia RFSC Ha Noi Webportal Since 2011 ü 5 countries ü RFSC Na Hoi ü RSMC-TC Tokyo ü RSMC-TC New Delhi ü HKO (training) ü CMA, JMA, KMA 16

SWFDP – Bay of Bengal (South Asia) RSMC-TC New Delhi Webportal is being expanded ü 6 countries ü RSMC New Delhi ü ECMWF, IMD/NCMRWF, JMA, NOAA/NCEP, UKMO 17

A cross-cutting activity involving multiple TCs and Progs, concerning prediction of hydro-meteorological hazards Flash Flood Guidance Ag. M, MMO, Ae. M, HWR WCP, etc. Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized Applications SP Ag. M, MMO, Ae. M, etc. WIGOS, WIS GDPFS Capacity Development (CD), including Training (ETR) Research Projects Satellite Imagery and Tools Observing and information systems General Public, media, disaster management authorities PWS, HWR, PWS WCP Specific User Sectors (Agriculture, Marine, Aviation, etc. ) TCP (Forecast/Warning Bulletins) LAM & Guidance Products (risk/probability) National Met Centres (RSMCs, RFSC, RCCs) Regional Centre RSMCs-TC Global NWP/EPS and Sat-based products WWRP Global Centres Feedback and Verification

Cooperation with research … incorporating promising research outputs into realtime operations … § GIFS - TIGGE - Tropical Cyclone track; extreme events (wind, precip, temps; soon to be near-real-time) § Forecast Verification Research § Nowcasting Research – very short-range forecasting § Sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting § Societal and economic research applications (SERA)

GIFS products

Project framework and guidance REFERENCE DOCUMENTS: • SWFDP Overall Project Plan (rev. 2010) http: //www. wmo. int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Meetings/RAII-Se. A-SWFDPRSMT_Hanoi 2011/documents/SWFDP_Overall. PP_Updated_22 -04 -2010. pdf • SWFDP Guidebook for Planning Regional Subprojects (rev. 2010) http: //www. wmo. int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Meetings/RAII-Se. A-SWFDPRSMT_Hanoi 2011/documents/SWFDP_Guidebook_Updated_22 -04 -2010. pdf

Resources for implementation and sustainability § Regular budget § In-kind contributions by WMO Members (especially global and regional centres) § Extra-budgetary funds from WMO Members, and donor agencies (e. g. AUSAid, World Bank, UNESCAP, Government of Norway, NZAid, etc. ) § Staff: DPFS (responsible for the overall project), with the collaboration of PWS

Lessons learnt, so far § Successful recipe – effective framework, real benefits to developing and least developed countries § High impact, cost effective § Visible operational results – increased visibility, credibility and value of meteorological services § Regional frameworks: collective needs, motivation, buy-on, ownership, continuous learning environment for a group of like-countries

Lessons learnt, so far (cont. ) § Accelerated technology transfer from advanced global centres to less capable national centres through the “Cascading Forecasting Process” § Model/framework can be applied to any timescales and a range of applications/user sectors § Engagement with met-groups with regional economic bodies is critical for sustainability

Lessons learnt, so far (cont. ) § Reliable and largely automated support by global centres, with infrequent problems that require technical repair and support § Critical role and functions of the regional centres in downscaling and tailoring products, and providing forecast guidance for practical use by NMHSs, and as a central hub for all data information exchange § Limited infrastructure requirements as products are provided in graphical form via Internet (or Eumet. Cast/Geo. Met. Cast)

Lessons learnt, so far (cont. ) § Major challenge has been the need for VSRF tools, in absence of weather radar coverage – it has been addressed in collaboration with SAT (e. g. SAF-NWC package – MSG - being installed at RSMC) § Verification and feedback is crucial for fine-tune the products and improve the process § Training (face-to-face, hands-on, global guidance, elearning, etc. ) is a critical for mentoring and empower forecasters

Training activities § 2 -week face-to-face training § NCEP African Desk (curriculum is now being revised to align with the SWFDP in Southern and Eastern Africa requirements, including WW 3 and WRF) § ECMWF annual training for WMO Members § DWD annual training on COSMO (aligned with SWFDP) § Regional Training Centres (training programmes on forecasting aligned with the SWFDP) § TC trainings include SWFDP-related aspects

Webinars

Global guidance huddle

Future directions § More countries, new regions (over 100 countries: developing and LDCs) ~ 12 RSMCs supported by ~6 RSMC-TC and ~13 global centres § Hydro-meteorological hazards § Sector-specific hazards (e. g. agriculture, marine, hydrology, aviation, etc. ) § Beyond day-5

Ultimate goal… Effective and efficient global forecasting system Consolidate the SWFDP into sustainable operational services in all WMO Regions and transition the SWFDP to become a fully supported global programme

But a global system requires… § Sustaining and strengthening existing operational centres, especially RSMCs § Expanding the role of RSMCs with activity specialization in Tropical Cyclones § Establishing/creating new RSMCs In-kind contributions are expected to continue on the availability of products (mainly automated systems) However, with additional regions, more NMHSs, there will be a need for additional resources to support technical and “engineering” enhancements, and training

Each regional project requires… § An RSMC expert to act as a regional project manager § Regular meetings of the regional frameworks / boards § Development, upgrades and maintenance of the Web site and Portal § Training (face-to-face training events, global guidance service, RSMC training desks, on-job training, e-learning, etc. ) § Implementation/installation of proven tools § Verification activities § Implementation/installation of a “meteoalarm”-type system

Sustaining and strengthening existing operational centres, especially RSMCs

Expanding the role of RSMCs with activity specialization in Tropical Cyclones

Establishing/creating new RSMCs/RFSCs

In addition… § Increased human resources required at the Secretariat to perform critical functions (coordinate, lead and help further develop, expand mainstream the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’ into all WMO Regions and other programmes of WMO), which also need to be funded (~300 k. USD/year) § Regular meetings of the Steering Group (every other year) for overall guidance (~80 k. USD/each)

Strengthening and sustaining the Cascading Forecasting Process… … paving the way for the future “ … next decade will continue to bring improvements, especially in … detailed short-range forecasts, using storm-scale models able to provide skillful predictions of severe weather; … “… improvement in the usefulness of medium-range forecasts, especially through use of ensemble forecasting; ” - Eugenia Kalnay (2009) Tell us how to fish - Show us how to fish - Fish with us

Improving severe weather forecasting and warning services Thank you! DPFS: Peter Chen Alice Soares “Spending on improving weather forecasting and sharing data have high returns. ” Natural Hazards Un. Natural Disasters – The Economics of Effective Preveniton, WB, UN (2011)

Thank you for your attention A. Soares Scientific Officer WMO Data-processing and Forecasting Systems (DPFS) asoares@wmo. int www. wmo. int