WILDFIRE RISK ANALYSIS GEOG 3110 Winter 2013 Denver

WILDFIRE RISK ANALYSIS GEOG 3110 Winter 2013 Denver James Coble 2013 University of March 14,

WILDFIRE RISK ANALYSIS • The Littleville Volunteer Fire Department needs to develop a wildfire risk map and subsequent analyses that will help in their response planning and mitigation efforts. - Calculate the average wildfire risk for each of the Littleville fire districts (Districts base map). - Create a map that shows the calculated wildfire risk for each location within a 300 meter buffer (3 cells) around all housing locations.

TERRAIN, COVER TYPE, AND HUMAN ACTIVITY • Terrain Slope. Steeper slopes have higher risk— 9 (high risk)= >40%, 8= 3040, 6= 20 -30, 4= 10 -20, 2= 5 -10 and 1 (low)= 0 -5% • Terrain Orientation. Southerly aspects have higher risks— 9 (high risk)= S/SW, 8= SE, 6= E/W, 5= Flat, 3= NW, 2= NE and 1 (low)= N • Cover type. Forested locations have highest risk— 9 (high risk)= Forest, 1 (low)= Meadow and 0= Open Water (no risk) • Proximity to Roads. Closer to roads have higher risk— 9 (high risk)= 0 cells away, 7= 1, 4= 2 -3 and 1 (low)= >3 cells away • Proximity to Houses. Closer to houses have higher risk— 9 (high risk)= 0 cells away, 8= 1, 6= 2, 4= 3 -5 and 1 (low)= >5 cells away • Can’t Burn Water. Masking consideration— 0= Open Water (lake or pond) and the zero rating is “forced” for these locations regardless of the calculated risk considering the other criteria

Roads Houses Roads Proximity Houses Proximity Slope Risk Calculate Aspect Risk Cover Type Risk Renumber Cover Type Spread Renumber Aspect Spread Slope Roads Risk Houses Risk Calculate d Risk

TERRAIN SLOPE - RENUMBER Terrain Slope. Steeper slopes have higher risk— 9 (high risk)= >40%, 8= 3040, 6= 20 -30, 4= 10 -20, 2= 5 -10 and 1 (low)= 0 -5%

TERRAIN ORIENTATION - RENUMBER Terrain Orientation. Southerly aspects have higher risks— 9 (high risk)= S/SW, 8= SE, 6= E/W, 5= Flat, 3= NW, 2= NE and 1 (low)= N

COVER TYPE - RENUMBER Cover type. Forested locations have highest risk— 9 (high risk)= Forest, 1 (low)= Meadow and 0= Open Water (no risk)

PROXIMITY TO ROADS - SPREAD Proximity to Roads. Closer to roads have higher risk— 9 (high risk)= 0 cells away, 7= 1, 4= 2 -3 and 1 (low)= >3 cells away

ROADS RISK - RENUMBER Proximity to Roads. Closer to roads have higher risk— 9 (high risk)= 0 cells away, 7= 1, 4= 2 -3 and 1 (low)= >3 cells away

PROXIMITY TO HOUSES - SPREAD Proximity to Houses. Closer to houses have higher risk— 9 (high risk)= 0 cells away, 8= 1, 6= 2, 4= 3 -5 and 1 (low)= >5 cells away

HOUSES RISK - RENUMBER Proximity to Houses. Closer to houses have higher risk— 9 (high risk)= 0 cells away, 8= 1, 6= 2, 4= 3 -5 and 1 (low)= >5 cells away

CALCULATED RISK (Slope_risk+Aspect_risk+Covertype_risk+Roads_risk+Hou sing_risk)/5

Water Mask Calculate d Risk Compute Renumber Cover type Calc. Risk Masked Districts Composite District Risk

WATER MASK - RENUMBER Can’t Burn Water. Masking consideration— 0= Open Water (lake or pond) and the zero rating is “forced” for these locations regardless of the calculated risk considering the other criteria

CALCULATED RISK COMPUTE

AVERAGE WILDFIRE RISK BY DISTRICT COMPOSITE

Houses Buffer Calc. Risk Masked Compute Houses Proximity Renumber Spread Houses 300 meter House Risk

PROXIMITY TO HOUSES SPREAD

300 METER BUFFER - RENUMBER

CALCULATED WILDFIRE RISK COMPUTE

Fire Station Renumber Cover Type Friction Map Spread Roads Friction Cover Type Renumber Roads Travel Time Weights Calc. Risk Masked Comput e. Calc. Risk Weighted

ROADS FRICTION - RENUMBER 1= 1 minute to traverse a road cell

COVER TYPE FRICTION - RENUMBER 3= meadow, 7= forest and 0= open water (absolute barrier)

FRICTION MAP - COVER

FIRE STATION - RENUMBER

TRAVEL TIMES - SPREAD Accumulation Surface– identifies shortest distance (effective proximity steps)

TRAVEL TIME WEIGHTS - RENUMBER 1. 0= > 20 minutes away (no change), 0. 9= 15 -20, 0. 8= 10 -15, 0. 75= 5 -10 and 0. 7= 0 -5 minutes away

CALCULATED WILDFIRE RISK Un-weighted Weighted COMPUTE

CALCULATED HOUSING 300 METER RISK Un-weighted Weighted COMPUTE

AVERAGE WILDFIRE RISK BY DISTRICT Un-weighted Weighted COMPOSI TE