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Who Wants to Just Break Even? How long will it take for Red Delicious Who Wants to Just Break Even? How long will it take for Red Delicious to start making money? David Allan and David Marshall January 16, 2001

Alternate bearing since 1994, but production appears to be trending downward in deference to Alternate bearing since 1994, but production appears to be trending downward in deference to other varieties. When will it level off? Source: Yakima Valley Growers & Shippers

Source: Growers Clearing House Source: Growers Clearing House

Source: Growers Clearing House Source: Growers Clearing House

Source: Growers Clearing House Source: Growers Clearing House

Source: Growers Clearing House Source: Growers Clearing House

Demand could continue to shift downward. Source: Growers Clearing House Demand could continue to shift downward. Source: Growers Clearing House

Assuming a reduction of 2. 5 million boxes each year, we will reach economic Assuming a reduction of 2. 5 million boxes each year, we will reach economic viability around ’ 03/05. Later -- if demand is still dropping. Source: Yakima Valley Growers & Shippers

If Red Growers react slower, and production drops by 1. 5 million boxes each If Red Growers react slower, and production drops by 1. 5 million boxes each year, we wouldn’t get down to profitable levels until 2005 / 2007. Later -- if demand is still dropping. Source: Yakima Valley Growers & Shippers

Source: Growers Clearing House Source: Growers Clearing House

Source: Growers Clearing House Source: Growers Clearing House

Old Red Crop Shipments 1998 -99 Crop Total Shipments Shipped After Sep 1 of Old Red Crop Shipments 1998 -99 Crop Total Shipments Shipped After Sep 1 of New 52, 222 1, 695 Source: Yakima Valley Growers & Shippers 1999 -00 Crop 41, 397 3. 2% 2, 282 5. 5%

Source: Growers Clearing House Source: Growers Clearing House

Source: Growers Clearing House Source: Growers Clearing House

Source: Growers Clearing House Source: Growers Clearing House

Source: US Apple, 1998 Source: US Apple, 1998

Source: US Apple, 2000 Source: US Apple, 2000

WHAT IF WE REMOVED… 36% of the Red Production 20% of the Gold production WHAT IF WE REMOVED… 36% of the Red Production 20% of the Gold production 50% of the Rome and Mc. Intosh, 50% of the 'other' varieties, especially those grown for processing. ? ? ? Source: Pure Speculation WHAT WILL FILL THE HOLE?

Source: Growers Clearing House Source: Growers Clearing House

Contact Info: David Allan 3630 Lateral B Wapato, WA 98951 509 -877 -2065 dallan@allanbro. Contact Info: David Allan 3630 Lateral B Wapato, WA 98951 509 -877 -2065 [email protected] com David Marshall 408 North First Street Yakima, WA 98901 509 -453 -4851 [email protected] com Copies of this material are available upon request. This Power Point presentation can be downloaded at: http: //www. agrimgt. com/newsletters. htm