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WHERE IN THE WORLD ARE WE? Benjamin Tal Senior Economist June 2007 Economics & WHERE IN THE WORLD ARE WE? Benjamin Tal Senior Economist June 2007 Economics & Strategy

“The Committee remains concerned about the risk of a continuing gap between the growth “The Committee remains concerned about the risk of a continuing gap between the growth of demand potential supply at a time when the utilization of the pool of available workers remains at an unusually high level…… the Committee believes the risks continue to be weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future” Fed’s FOMC Meeting October 13, 2000

Cutting Rates in the Face of Rising Inflation Cutting Rates in the Face of Rising Inflation

Subprime Shock Relatively Modest Subprime Shock Relatively Modest

Little Impact on US Corporate Spreads … spread to US Treasuries (bps) 900 800 Little Impact on US Corporate Spreads … spread to US Treasuries (bps) 900 800 LTCM Blowup Recession & 9/11 Telecom Airline Defaults Auto Downgrades 700 600 Subprime Meltdown 500 400 300 200 100 0 Dec-97 Apr-00 10 -yr A Corporate Aug-02 Nov-04 Mar-07 10 -yr BB/BB- Corporate

Falling Prices Shut the Door on “Housing ATM” Falling Prices Shut the Door on “Housing ATM”

North America Is Slowing… North America Is Slowing…

…But Strongest Global Growth in Decades …But Strongest Global Growth in Decades

Surging Domestic Demand Will Shield China from US Slowdown Exports to US Other 30 Surging Domestic Demand Will Shield China from US Slowdown Exports to US Other 30 % chg vs 2005, YTD 25 8% 20 Fixed Investment Household Spending 15 10 5 0 Breakdown of 2005 GDP Fixed Asset Retail Investment Sales

Commodity Currencies Have Led the Pack Commodity Currencies Have Led the Pack

TSX Tracks Global Growth Y/Y % chg (Avg of Monthly Closes) Y/Y % chg TSX Tracks Global Growth Y/Y % chg (Avg of Monthly Closes) Y/Y % chg 1986 - 2006 Correlation with TSX 40 6 0. 6 30 5 0. 5 4 0. 4 3 0. 3 20 10 0 2 -10 1 -30 0 19 8 19 6 8 19 9 9 19 2 9 19 5 9 20 8 0 20 1 20 04 07 F -20 S&P TSX (L) World Real GDP (R) 0. 2 0. 1 0 Cdn Real World Real GDP

Two Different Demand Curves for Oil Two Different Demand Curves for Oil

Almost 60% of Investable Reserves in Canada Almost 60% of Investable Reserves in Canada

GHG Emissions Growth by Country Change, 1990 -2004 (%) Canada * Australia * United GHG Emissions Growth by Country Change, 1990 -2004 (%) Canada * Australia * United States * Have not ratified the Kyoto Protocol. Source: UNFCCC (2005)

Emission Intensity by Province Emission Intensity by Province

Uranium Prices Have Outpaced Oil Uranium Prices Have Outpaced Oil

Looming Supply Gap Down the Road 80 and tor Dem Reac Projected ’ 000 Looming Supply Gap Down the Road 80 and tor Dem Reac Projected ’ 000 tonnes /yr Total Supply 60 40 2003 05 Other Secondary Supply 07 09 11 13 14 Diluted Military Stockpiles 17 19 Mine Production Source: Euratom, 2005. Assumes unchanged uranium and enrichment costs.

Falling Excess Water Supply Source: FAO, CIBCWM * Actual Withdrawal as a % of Falling Excess Water Supply Source: FAO, CIBCWM * Actual Withdrawal as a % of Total Renewable Water Supply

2006 International Water Cost Comparison Source: NUS International Price Survey, CIBCWM 2006 International Water Cost Comparison Source: NUS International Price Survey, CIBCWM

US Water Index Easily Outperformed S&P 500 Source: Bloomberg US Water Index, CIBCWM US Water Index Easily Outperformed S&P 500 Source: Bloomberg US Water Index, CIBCWM

The Rise of the Infrastructure Deficit in Canada Sources: Statistics Canada, Infrastructure Canada, CCPPP, The Rise of the Infrastructure Deficit in Canada Sources: Statistics Canada, Infrastructure Canada, CCPPP, CIBCWM

Investing in Infrastructure Investing in Infrastructure

Core Pressures in Services, Not Goods Core Pressures in Services, Not Goods

Wal-Mart as a Country Source: CIA World Factbook Wal-Mart as a Country Source: CIA World Factbook

Cdn Dollar Becoming a Petro-Currency Cdn Dollar Becoming a Petro-Currency

When The US Sneezes…. . When The US Sneezes…. .

Debt To Income Ratio Debt To Income Ratio

Share of Real Estate in Household Assets Share of Real Estate in Household Assets

House Prices Source: The Economist House Prices Source: The Economist

Interest-Only Mortgages (US) Interest-Only Mortgages (US)

Sub-Prime Share of Mortgage Originations Sources: HHS 2006, MBA, Financial Monitor, CIBCWM Sub-Prime Share of Mortgage Originations Sources: HHS 2006, MBA, Financial Monitor, CIBCWM

Fixed-Term GICs vs. Prime Rate Fixed-Term GICs vs. Prime Rate

Increase In Cash Not Evenly Distributed Increase In Cash Not Evenly Distributed

The People With The Cash Are Not The Same People With the Debt Source: The People With The Cash Are Not The Same People With the Debt Source: CFM, Ipsos-Reid, CIBCWM