b02ce6b1551ef7b5e505500ab78dd5d2.ppt
- Количество слайдов: 34
WHERE IN THE WORLD ARE WE? Benjamin Tal Senior Economist June 2007 Economics & Strategy
“The Committee remains concerned about the risk of a continuing gap between the growth of demand potential supply at a time when the utilization of the pool of available workers remains at an unusually high level…… the Committee believes the risks continue to be weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future” Fed’s FOMC Meeting October 13, 2000
Cutting Rates in the Face of Rising Inflation
Subprime Shock Relatively Modest
Little Impact on US Corporate Spreads … spread to US Treasuries (bps) 900 800 LTCM Blowup Recession & 9/11 Telecom Airline Defaults Auto Downgrades 700 600 Subprime Meltdown 500 400 300 200 100 0 Dec-97 Apr-00 10 -yr A Corporate Aug-02 Nov-04 Mar-07 10 -yr BB/BB- Corporate
Falling Prices Shut the Door on “Housing ATM”
North America Is Slowing…
…But Strongest Global Growth in Decades
Surging Domestic Demand Will Shield China from US Slowdown Exports to US Other 30 % chg vs 2005, YTD 25 8% 20 Fixed Investment Household Spending 15 10 5 0 Breakdown of 2005 GDP Fixed Asset Retail Investment Sales
Commodity Currencies Have Led the Pack
TSX Tracks Global Growth Y/Y % chg (Avg of Monthly Closes) Y/Y % chg 1986 - 2006 Correlation with TSX 40 6 0. 6 30 5 0. 5 4 0. 4 3 0. 3 20 10 0 2 -10 1 -30 0 19 8 19 6 8 19 9 9 19 2 9 19 5 9 20 8 0 20 1 20 04 07 F -20 S&P TSX (L) World Real GDP (R) 0. 2 0. 1 0 Cdn Real World Real GDP
Two Different Demand Curves for Oil
Almost 60% of Investable Reserves in Canada
GHG Emissions Growth by Country Change, 1990 -2004 (%) Canada * Australia * United States * Have not ratified the Kyoto Protocol. Source: UNFCCC (2005)
Emission Intensity by Province
Uranium Prices Have Outpaced Oil
Looming Supply Gap Down the Road 80 and tor Dem Reac Projected ’ 000 tonnes /yr Total Supply 60 40 2003 05 Other Secondary Supply 07 09 11 13 14 Diluted Military Stockpiles 17 19 Mine Production Source: Euratom, 2005. Assumes unchanged uranium and enrichment costs.
Falling Excess Water Supply Source: FAO, CIBCWM * Actual Withdrawal as a % of Total Renewable Water Supply
2006 International Water Cost Comparison Source: NUS International Price Survey, CIBCWM
US Water Index Easily Outperformed S&P 500 Source: Bloomberg US Water Index, CIBCWM
The Rise of the Infrastructure Deficit in Canada Sources: Statistics Canada, Infrastructure Canada, CCPPP, CIBCWM
Investing in Infrastructure
Core Pressures in Services, Not Goods
Wal-Mart as a Country Source: CIA World Factbook
Cdn Dollar Becoming a Petro-Currency
When The US Sneezes…. .
Debt To Income Ratio
Share of Real Estate in Household Assets
House Prices Source: The Economist
Interest-Only Mortgages (US)
Sub-Prime Share of Mortgage Originations Sources: HHS 2006, MBA, Financial Monitor, CIBCWM
Fixed-Term GICs vs. Prime Rate
Increase In Cash Not Evenly Distributed
The People With The Cash Are Not The Same People With the Debt Source: CFM, Ipsos-Reid, CIBCWM
b02ce6b1551ef7b5e505500ab78dd5d2.ppt