What s the Deal with Lessons from Science

+ What’s the Deal? (with Lessons from Science Based Stockpile Stewardship) Victor Reis

Outline • What is Sci. DAC • What is GNEP • An Example of where Simulation really mattered: • Stockpile Stewardship & ASCI • GNEP and Sci. DAC

Part of DOE’s Office of Science- SC Research funded under the Sci. DAC program must address the interdisciplinary problems inherent in ultrascale computing, problems that cannot be addressed by a single investigator or small group of investigators. The latter are typically funded by the core research programs. Science/Problems/Interdisciplinary/Ultrascale Computing

SC Research Portfolio: Critical Questions that need Answers • Can we predict the effects of cracking, aging and fatigue on materials? • Can we improve the efficiency and specificity of the catalysts that produce the materials of the modern world? • Can we predict the structure and function of proteins from a knowledge of the DNA sequence? • Can we reliably predict the evolution of the earth's regional climates decades and centuries into the future? • Can we control the instabilities that lead to the loss of power in fusion devices? • Can we design more efficient heavy-ion accelerators for inertial fusion? • Can we design more powerful particle accelerators for high-energy physics? • Is the Standard Model of particle physics complete? Possible relation to GNEP

What is GNEP? This morning, I want to speak to you about one part of this initiative: our plans to expand the use of safe and clean nuclear power. Nuclear power generates large amounts of low-cost electricity without emitting air pollution or greenhouse gases. …. my Administration has announced a bold new proposal called the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership. Under this partnership, America will work with nations that have advanced civilian nuclear energy programs, such as France, Japan, and Russia. Together, we will develop and deploy innovative, advanced reactors and new methods to recycle spent nuclear fuel. This will allow us to produce more energy, while dramatically reducing the amount of nuclear waste and eliminating the nuclear byproducts that unstable regimes or terrorists could use to make weapons. President George W. Bush Radio Address: February 18, 2006

GNEP Has Three Simultaneous Goals GNEP Goals Lots of Nuclear Power (1000 ~2000 GWyr by 2050) Dispose of radioactive waste U. S. Policy Change: recycling by “fuel cycle” states GNEP Principles: • Global Issues require global solutions • Spent Fuel is an asset to be managed – not a waste. Reduce Proliferation Risk

Key Non-proliferation Element of GNEP is Fuel Leasing Fuel Cycle States Reactor (Partner) States Spent Fuel GNEP Fuel Leasing Principles: • Encourage expansion of nuclear power • Should make “commercial” sense • Consistent with Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

An Early Suggestion for Fuel Leasing “The Necessity of Fission Power” Scientific American 1976. H. Bethe “An important additional safeguard would be to prevent the proliferation of nuclear chemical-processing plants since it is from those plans rather than from reactors that fissionable material could be diverted. A good proposal is that the chemical processing be centralized in plants for an entire region… Another approach would be to have the country supplying the reactor lease the fuel to the customer country with the requirement that the used fuel be returned”.

Possible Fuel Leasing Configuration Repository Reactor Partner State Enriched Uranium Fuel ORE Thermal Reactor Separate Recycle Fuel Cycle State Fast Reactor Spent Fuel Repository

GNEP Process Just Beginning Countries Approached by U. S. to be possible Fuel Cycle States France – active follow-up Japan – active follow-up United Kingdom (In midst of Government Energy Study) Russia – active follow-up China - follow up May 22 -23, 2006 ~ 100 Countries briefed at International Atomic Energy Agency Science Attaches briefed in DC: Russia, UK, France, China, Japan, S. Korea, Canada, Italy, Switzerland, Finland, Germany, Australia, South Africa, Netherlands, Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia, Turkey, Greece, Croatia, Norway, Nigeria, Israel, Viet Nam Detailed Discussion with Canada, South Korea Open to discussions with all interested states. International Response Positive

GNEP Approach Consists of Multiple Elements • “Harmonize” Country Policies and Strategies • Common Vision • Compatible Country Strategies • Develop Cooperative Programs • Scientific Research • Technology Demonstrations • Personnel Exchange • Develop Fuel Cycle Regime • Commercial Deals • Fuel Banks • Interim Storage Build on Generation 4, AFCI Current bi-lateral & multilateral agreements.

Proposed GNEP Strategy for U. S. Expand LWR Export (L)WR NP-2010/Energy Policy Act Small Reactors Spent Fuel Management UREX + Fast Burner Reactors (Pyroprocessing) Recycle No separated Plutonium Little Transuranic waste “No liquid process waste Disposition = Spent Fuel - (U+Cesium/Strontium+ Actinides) AFCI Yucca Mountain (1) Burt Richter

Separation Technology Based Upon Centrifugal Contactors • Continuous • Flexible • “No” liquid waste 24 stage 2 -cm Centrifugal Contactor in Hot Cell

Example GNEP Fuel Cycle Flow Sheet LWR Spent Fuel Chopping and Nitric Acid Dissolution UREX Process Technetium Cladding Hulls and Iodine Uranium Product Conversion TRU + Fission Products Decay Storage of Cs& Sr Cs/Sr U 3 O 8 Powder CCD-PEG TRU+ Remaining Fission Products High-Level Waste Form (Vitrification) Advanced Burner Reactor Lanthanides. TRU and Lanthanides Oxides TRU Blending and Product Conversion & Packaging Nitric Acid Re-dissolution Understood & demonstrated at lab-scale/prototypic environment Still significant R&D, not well understood & not demonstrated at any scale TRU + Lanthanides TALSPEAK Process Advanced Fuel Fabrication TRUEX Process Well understood & demonstrated, few issues associated with scale-up U 3 O 8 for fuel fabrication Storage/Disposal of Remaining U 3 O 8

Possible Implementation Approach Phase 1 Phase 2

Issues With US GNEP Cost of Separation Transuranic Fuel Cost of Burner Reactor Demonstrations Robust R&D (Especially Simulations!) An Integrated Approach: • Domestic/International • DOE: NE/RW/SC/NA • DOE Labs (9) • Industry • Universities A DOE Leadership and Management Challenge

Stockpile Stewardship: The Problem July 3, 1993 President Clinton: • Continue Moratorium on Nuclear Weapons Testing • Seek a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty • And Direct the DOE to: "establish a stewardship program to ensure the preservation of the core intellectual and technical competencies of the U. S. in nuclear weapons. " Maintain U. S. (old) nuclear weapons without nuclear testing ~ Simulation!!! ASCI - Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative

Stockpile Stewardship (ASCI) Simulation Goal: • Speed ~ No of operations/run time of problem Resolution - size of feature Dimension - 3 D Physics fidelity - a lot Run time~ 2 weeks ~ 100 teraflops (100, 000 gigaflops) By 2004 (Designers with test experience retired – need for validation) Then: • Visualizing of results - interact with designers brains • Academic alliances ~ like Sci. DAC - fill the intellectual pipeline - validation on “testable” large multidisciplinary problems

Computing Speed in June 1993 - Speed in Gigaflops DOE Defense Programs FY ‘ 94 Advanced Computing Budget $10 M

ASCI Team IBM Livermore Equivalent Teams At Los Alamos & Sandia

TOP 500 list - November 2005 Stockpile Continues To be Certified Basis for “new” Weapon & Complex Speed in gigaflops

Lessons from ASCI • Successful simulation enterprise requires focus and sustainability, i. e. must be owned by an enduring institution – national lab – some university ASCI centers have done well at a smaller scale. – industry? • Core group must own mission, design role, applications development and platform / environment. • Key milestones must provide program value. • Focus on substantial “well-posed” problems. • Science must be integrated from the start • Traditional “validation” does not work well when codes, methods and fundamental understanding undergo rapid evolution.

More ASCI lessons • Hierarchy from mission need to application requirements to framework support. • Design, computation and validation must be an integrated process. • No such thing as “full physics. ” Must be able to “tune” level of fidelity and dimensionality. Design requires 1000’s of runs simplifying some aspects to do design tradeoffs. • University partnerships important – ideas, algorithms, models, codes, and of course people. • It’s hard enough with a clear mission and one office controlling resources and providing direction. “Sci. DAC follows these Principles” Michael Strayer

GNEP and Simulation/Sci. DAC • Critical GNEP Problems • DOE Management Model • Funding Model • Issues

GNEP / Sci. DAC Potential problems to be solved • Materials (Actinide fuels) • Integrated separations process waste forms and global repository performance • “Revolution” in Reactor design – Performance Based Design • Fast • Thermal – Certification & Licensing – International Safety & Security Standards

A rigorous solution of the earthquake response problem presents a major simulation challenge Structural response Wave propagation Fault Rupture

Management Topology in DOE for GNEP/Sci. DAC BES Sci. DAC Fundamental understanding Bohr (basic) Pasteur (use inspired) Edison (applied) NO NO GNEP? DEFENSE PROGRAMS SCIENCE YES Science Based Stockpile Stewardship Utility NUCLEAR ENGINEERING Nuclear Power 2010 YES Utility *from “Pasteur’s Quadrant” by Donald Stokes, 1997

Possible R&D funding and management models • “Traditional” competitive peer review in basic sciences: Purpose is the broad advancement of scientific knowledge. Broad science goals set by program office in close collaboration with peer community, open solicitation, competitive peer review selection, periodic peer review performance evaluation. • DARPA (Circa 1990) Purpose is focused acceleration of technologies to revolutionize national security practices. Agenda developed collaboratively with community leadership. Program manager selects projects and monitors/manages results to achieve DARPA goals. • Stockpile stewardship Purpose is to maintain nuclear deterrence without testing. President set the agenda. Goals and objectives set in collaboration with laboratory management, lab scientific leadership, and Do. D. 100% mission ownership by national laboratory / production plant. Strict DOE and laboratory line management authority/accountability/funding to achieve program goals. • ASCI: Purpose is to replace underground testing with computational methods as basis for stockpile certification basis. DOE program initiative. Goals and objectives set in collaboration with laboratory technical leadership, industry partners and university computational science leadership. 100% national lab end use mission ownership, but industry has 50% share in computer systems development. Commercial contracts for hardware development/acquisition; visualization and system software. DOE/ national lab line management authority/accountability/funding for major code projects and supporting software development. University Alliance program similar to “traditional”

Comments • International Program – Change the Post Cold War World – Attack Climate Change • Role of Industry – Energy & Health Care the big markets • Role of DOE – Intersects with every part of department

A time for action! 行動を伴わない構想は夢であり、 構想の無い行動は悪夢である。 日本の格言 A vision without action is a dream, Action without vision is a nightmare Japanese Proverb “ For glory gives herself only to those who have always dreamed of her. ” “You have to be fast on your feet and adaptive or else a strategy is useless. ” Charles de Gaulle

Global Nuclear Energy Partnership When the tide rises, boats float higher Admiral Zheng He To have friends coming in from afar, how delightful!

Summary: Nuclear Energy is in a Crisis Danger Opportunity Nuclear Technology will always be in crisis GNEP represents a unique opportunity for international leadership, shaping the future, an organizing principle for 21 st century civilization “Atoms for Peace! ”

Global Nuclear Energy Partnership – Role of United States To the making of these fateful decisions, the United States pledges before you--and therefore before the world--its determination to help solve the fearful atomic dilemma--to devote its entire heart and mind to find the way by which the miraculous inventiveness of man shall not be dedicated to his death, but consecrated to his life. Dwight D. Eisenhower “Atoms for Peace” December 8, 1953