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What is the Right Supply Chain for your Product? -- A Simple Framework can What is the Right Supply Chain for your Product? -- A Simple Framework can Help you Figure out the Answer 1

Supply Chain Problems • An inability to predict demand. – Supply chains in many Supply Chain Problems • An inability to predict demand. – Supply chains in many industries suffer from an excess of some products and a shortage of others owing to an inability to predict demand. • Adversarial relations between supply chain partners. – One recent study of the U. S. food industry estimated that poor coordination among supply chain partners wasting $30 billion annually. • Dysfunctional industry practices such as an overreliance on price promotions. – Nobody can win on such a deal as forward buying. • The root cause of these problems plaguing many supply chains is a mismatch between the type of product and the type of supply chain. 2

A Framework for Deciding the Right Supply Chain for Your Product? • Is your A Framework for Deciding the Right Supply Chain for Your Product? • Is your product functional or innovative? – On the basis of their demand patterns, products are either primarily functional or primarily innovative. And each category requires a distinctly different kind of supply chain. • Devising the ideal supply chain that can best satisfies the demand. – An efficient process for functional products and a responsive process for innovative products. • Getting out of the unresponsive chains trying to supply innovative products. • Devising the best supply chain management strategy. – Efficient supply of functional products. – Responsive supply of innovative products. 3

Is Your Product Functional or Innovative? • Functional products have stable, predictable demand, long Is Your Product Functional or Innovative? • Functional products have stable, predictable demand, long life cycle, and low profit margins. – Functional products include the staples that people buy in grocery stores and gas stations. Because such products basic needs, which don’t change much over time, they have predictable demand. • Innovative products have unpredictable demand, short life cycles, and high profit margins. – To avoid low margins, many companies introduce innovations in fashion or technology to give customers an additional reason to buy their products. – But the very newness of innovative products makes demand for them unpredictable. The short life cycles and the great variety typical of these products further increase unpredictability. 4

A Supply Chain’s Functions and Costs • A supply chain performs two distinct types A Supply Chain’s Functions and Costs • A supply chain performs two distinct types of functions: a physical function and a market mediation function. – A supply chain’s physical function includes converting raw materials into parts, components, and, eventually finished goods, and transporting all of them from one point in the supply chain to the next. – The purpose of market mediation is ensuring that the variety of products reaching the marketplace matches what consumers want to buy. • Each of the two functions incurs distinct costs. – Physical costs are the costs of production, transportation, and inventory storage. – Market mediation costs arise when supply exceeds demand a product has to be marked down and sold at a loss or when supply falls short of demand, resulting in lost sales opportunities and dissatisfied customers. 5

Functional Versus Innovative Products: Differences in Demand Functional Innovative (Predictable Demand) Product life cycle Functional Versus Innovative Products: Differences in Demand Functional Innovative (Predictable Demand) Product life cycle more than 2 years 3 months to 1 year Contribution margin 5% to 20% to 60% Product variety Low(10 to 20 variants per category) High(often millions of variants per category) Average margin of error in the forecast at the time production is committed 10% 40% to 100% Average stockout rate 1% to 2% 10% to 40% Average forced end-ofseason markdown as percentage of full price 0% 10% to 25% Lead time required for made-to-order products 6 months to 1 year 1 day to 2 weeks Aspects of Demand 6

Functional Versus Innovative Products: Differences in Supply Chains • Companies that make functional products Functional Versus Innovative Products: Differences in Supply Chains • Companies that make functional products focus exclusively on minimizing physical costs. – The predictable demand of such products makes market mediation easy because a nearly perfect match between supply and demand can be achieved. – The price sensitivity of most functional product. – A crucial supply chain goal is to meet predictable demand at the lowest cost. • Companies that make innovative products should focus on minimizing market mediation costs. – The uncertain market reaction to innovation increase the risk of shortages or excess supplies. – Hence market mediation costs, not physical costs, predominate for these products. – Most important in this situation is to read market signals and to react quickly. 7

Physically Effective Versus Market Response Supply Chains Physically Efficient Process Primary purpose supply predictable Physically Effective Versus Market Response Supply Chains Physically Efficient Process Primary purpose supply predictable demand efficiently at the lowest possible cost Market-Responsive Process response quickly to unpredictable demand in order to minimize stockouts, forced markdowns, and obsolete inventory Manufacturing focus maintain high average utilization rate deploy excess buffer capacity Inventory strategy generate high turns and minimize inventory throughout the chain deploy significant buffer stocks of parts or finished goods Lead-time focus shorten lead time as long as it doesn’t increase cost invest aggressively in ways to reduce lead time Approaches to choosing suppliers select primarily for cost and quality select primarily for speed, flexibility, and quality Product-design strategy maximize performance and minimize cost use modular design in order to postpone product differentiation far as long as possible 8

Functional Versus Innovative Products: Examples in Industries • Sport Obermeyer’s supply chain efforts have Functional Versus Innovative Products: Examples in Industries • Sport Obermeyer’s supply chain efforts have been directed at reducing market mediation costs through increased speed and flexibility. – A major supplier of fashion skiwear. Each year, 95% of its products are completely new designs for which demand forecasts often err by as much as 200%. – Its uncertain demand leads to high market mediation costs in the form of losses on styles that don’t sell and missed sales opportunities due to a shortage of others. • Campbell’s supply chain goal was physical efficiency through reduced inventory and increased inventory turns. – Only 5% of Campbell’s products are new each year. Sales of existing products are highly predictable. – Campbell’s more than 98% service level leaves little room for improvement in market mediation costs. 9

Steps for Deciding the Ideal Supply Chain Strategy • Step 1: Companies first must Steps for Deciding the Ideal Supply Chain Strategy • Step 1: Companies first must determine whether their products are functional or innovative. • Step 2: The next step is to decide whether the supply chain is physically efficient or responsive to the market. • Step 3: Then the managers can employ a matrix to formulate the ideal supply-chain strategy. – An efficient process for functional products and a responsive process for innovative products. – Companies that have either an innovative product with an efficient supply chain (upper right-cell) or a functional product with a responsive supply chain (lower left-hand cell) tend to be the ones with problems. 10

Matching Supply Chains with Products Responsive Supply Chain Efficient Supply Chain Functional Products match Matching Supply Chains with Products Responsive Supply Chain Efficient Supply Chain Functional Products match mismatch Innovative Products mismatch 11

Getting Out of the Upper Right-Hand Cell • Unresponsive chains trying to supply innovative Getting Out of the Upper Right-Hand Cell • Unresponsive chains trying to supply innovative products. – The automobile industry is one classic example. The auto distribution channel is a kind of hourglass with the dealer at the neck. At the top of the glass, plants can provide and almost infinite variety of options. At the bottom, customers with diverse tastes could benefit from that variety but are unable to because dealers have only a few versions of the car model. • How to get out of the upper right-hand cell? – A company should move to the left if it has a product line characterized by frequent introductions of new offerings, great variety, and low profit margin. – A company should create a responsive supply chain for innovative products. 12

Efficient Supply of Functional Products: Campbell Soup Example • Better coordination across corporate boundaries Efficient Supply of Functional Products: Campbell Soup Example • Better coordination across corporate boundaries with suppliers and distributors presents the greatest opportunities. – Campbell’s continuous replenishment (CR) program embodies a model in which the manufacturer and the retailers cooperate to cut costs through the chain, thereby increasing the size of the pie. – Campbell uses its retailer inventory level information to forecast demand cut the inventories of retailers from about four to two weeks of supply. – Since the retailer makes more money on Campbell products delivered through CR, it has an incentive to carry a broader line of them and to give them more shelf space. 13

Responsive Supply of Innovative Products • Demand uncertainty is the primary challenge in creating Responsive Supply of Innovative Products • Demand uncertainty is the primary challenge in creating a responsive supply process for innovative products. Companies use four tools to cope with such uncertainty. – The first step for many companies is simple to accept that uncertainty in inherent in innovative products. The highest profit margins of innovative products usually go with the highest risk in demand. – Then a company employ three coordinated strategies to manage that uncertainty. It can strive to reduce uncertainty by sensing demand or by using the concept of modularity and postponement; it can avoid uncertainty by cutting lead times and producing to order; and it can hedge against the uncertainty with buffers of inventory or excess capacity. • For instance, Sport Obermeyer reduces the risks of uncertainty by soliciting early orders from important customers and shortening lead time. 14