What are Defensible Borders for the State of Israel?
What are threats facing Israel: 1. Demographic issues 2. Security: conventional, terrorism, long-range missiles 3. Delegitimization
Democracy Jewish National Home Demography Territory
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The reality in 1937 400, 000 Jews 960, 000 Arabs 17% Of the land of Mandate Palestine “a conflict between two national movements whose claims are valid and may not be reconciled… other than by partition…” (The royal commission report, 1937)
The reality in 1947 638, 000 Jews 1, 200, 000 Arabs 55% of the land of Mandate Palestine “…only through the partition can the two conflicting national aspirations have a real expression” (The 1947 partition committee report)
The reality in 1949 “The IDF can occupy the entire territory between the Jordan River and the sea. But what kind of a country will we have then, assuming that there are elections and that Dir Yassin is not our policy. We will have a Knesset with an Arab majority. In the trade off between a whole country and a Jewish state, we have chosen the Jewish state”. David Ben Gurion (Knesset, April, 1949) 700, 000 Jews 160, 000 Arabs 78% Of the land Of Mandate Palestine
Lebanon Syria Land of Israel/Palestine: Size: 28, 000 Sq km Population: Israel: Jews – 5. 55 M; Arabs – 1. 25 M Mediterranean Sea West Bank 20. 7% Gaza Strip 1. 3% Israel 78% West Bank and Gaza Strip: Jews – 0. 5 M; Arabs – 4. 1 Jordan Egypt
2015 48. 6% 80. 8% 2025 43. 9% 78. 3% 2050 33% 77% What could possibly account for higher Jewish populations that the demographic study wouldn’t yet acknowledge?
Are 1967 Borders Defensible ? Can the security of Israel be maintained without control of the West Bank?
Defensible borders must be determined by five factors: 1. What is the political scenario? 2. Who is threatening us? 3. What is the threat? 4. What is Israel's ability? 5. What are the alternatives in controlling the area?
The Old Threats: 1. Western front - Egypt 2. Eastern front- Jordan, Syria and Iraq- 10 -12 armored & infantry Divisions. 3. Terrorism
Security Responses: 1. Strategic depth West Bank & Sinai Peninsula 2. Early warning capability 3. Border Patrols
THE PRESENT-DAY THREATS ARE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT
Potential Threats in the present and foreseeable future: 1. Long-range missiles & rockets from Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas. 2. Terrorism 3. Palestinian conventional military threat
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40 km Sharon's containment program since 1977 and its lack of relevance to the new threats 40 km
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Security arrangements required in the Palestinian State 1. Demilitarization 2. Presence of international forces 3. Early warning stations 4. Israeli control of airspace Palestine Israel Palestine
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