WFM 6311 Climate Risk Management Dr Akm

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WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management Lecture-1: Module-1 &2 Climate System, Global Warming, Green House gases Akm Saiful Islam Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) December, 2009

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Module-1 n Climate System and Hydrologic cycle ¨Atmosphere ¨Cryosphere: Sea, Ice sheet, Glacier ¨Hydrosphere: River, Lakes, ocean interactions ¨Hydrologic Cycle ¨Biosphere and Ecosystem

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Module-2 n Climate variability and climate change. ¨ Global warming and green house gases ¨ Historic aspects of global climate change ¨ Climate change in South Asian context: Case study

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Climate Systems • The complicated system consisting of various components, including the dynamics and composition of the atmosphere, the ocean, the ice and snow cover, the land surface and its features, the many mutual interactions between them, and the large variety of physical, chemical and biological processes taking place in and among these components. • Climate refers to the state of the climate system as a whole, including a statistical description of its variations. n Atmosphere ¨ 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and 1% other gases. ¨ Carbon dioxide accounts for just 0. 03 - 0. 04%. ¨ Water vapor 0 to 2%

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Components of Climate System

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Green house gases n CO 2 and some other minor gases 1. Absorb some of thermal radiation leaving the surface of the earth. 2. Emit radiation from much higher and colder levels out to space. n These radiatively active gases are known as greenhouse gases. ¨ They act as a partial blanket for thermal radiation from the surface which enables it to be substantially warmer than it would otherwise be, analogous to the effect of a greenhouse.

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Green house effect

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Green house gas effect

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Human induced climate variation n Perturbations of the atmospheric composition – the enhanced greenhouse effect Effect of aerosols: ¨ direct effect (scattering of incoming solar radiation) ¨ indirect effect (affecting the radiative properties of clouds) Land-use change (agriculture, deforestation, reforestation, afforestation, urbanisation, traffic, …)

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Increasing trends of CO 2

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Human induced changes of green house gases

Global temperature and Greenhouse gases WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Temperature variation past 1, 000 years

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Increase of Temperature past 140 year

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Ice melting n Images gathered from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program of NASA show the minimum Arctic sea ice concentration 1979 (left) and 2003 (right). 1979 2003

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Emission of Green house gases n Emission of Co 2 Bangladesh < 0. 2 ton/yr