West Map The Western Climate Mapping Initiative Western

West. Map The Western Climate Mapping Initiative Western Climate Mapping Consortium Co-Chairs: Andrew Comrie, University of Arizona Kelly Redmond, Desert Research Institute and Western Regional Climate Center Chris Daly, Oregon State University Organizing Membership: University of Arizona – Climate Assessment of the Southwest (UA) Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC) Spatial Climate Analysis Service – Oregon State University (OSU) USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) Scripps Institution of Oceanography – California Applications Program (Scripps/CAP) NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC)

West. Map Aims • 50 -100 years, 1 km gridded, monthly climate observations, continuously updated • Provide to data users & stakeholders: – online analysis tools – associated error/accuracy estimates – educational resources

Background • Very high stakeholder demand for these kinds of climate data – noted by the NOAA-funded Regional Integrated Science and Assessment (RISA) projects across the west (e. g. , CLIMAS, the Climate Assessment for the Southwest) • Main West. Map focus on a western US domain – Large demand complex climate mapping challenges in the West • • • fine scale topographic variations extensive high elevation mountain ranges deserts coastal boundary regions interior valleys rain shadows data availability poor station distribution May evolve to: – national/international – northern Mexico and western Canada – daily data, but not initially

Courtesy Tim Owen, NCDC

Product Applications • Five key areas – drought mitigation/monitoring, e. g. : • complement and enhance developing drought management initiatives and monitoring programs • in turn, these activities will help future mapping through identifying gaps/problems in the present data sets – – climate variability water management global change modeling/assessment forecasts (initial conditions) and downscaling of forecasts (limits of predictability, model verification) • West. Map impact will be very wide – Very large number of likely users: researchers, decisionmakers, resource mgrs, etc. – integral climate mapping web interface for ease of access

Some selected potential users of West. Map data Stakeholder Data Applications Data Needs USDA/NRSC Water management; Drought monitoring; Water Supply Forecasting; SNOTEL Precipitation, min & max T, snow water equivalent SCRIPPS-CAP Sub-regional scale climate (seasonal-interannual) forecast models Precipitation, min & max T Dept of Interior, BLM, Forest Service, Park Service Fire Management and Risk Assessment Precipitation, min & max T, snow water equivalent; Soil moisture Bureau of Reclamation Flood Risk Assessment; Streamflow Analysis Precipitation and precipitation frequency USGS Streamflow analyses Precipitation and temperature WGA Drought Monitoring Lengthy history of Precipitation and temperature; educational resources NOAA/CPC Climate forecasts Gridded precip, temperature NOAA/NWS Graphical Forecast Historical time series, near real time, frequency, extreme events NOAA/CDC Downscale climate forecasts; objective hindcasts and ensembles Gridded precip and temperature LDAS program Precipitation 1 km gridded precip and temperature RISA stakeholders Fire management, water and power, public health, cooperative extension, ranching, agriculture Precip, Temperature, soil moisture, snow water equivalent, etc. ; educational resources University Climate variability analyses and reconstruction of paleo histories; regional impacts of climate; climate-social impacts/informational needs Everything available K-12 and Community Education Local climate variability and basic climate curriculum Precipitation and temperature; educational resources

3 Major West. Map Components Data Development & Operations better access and tools; increased dataset utility algorithm improvements and data updates Data Access, Visualization & Educational Resources Error Assessments, Data Analyses & Diagnostics improved online tools and understanding of data uncertainty

West. Map Data Development • PRISM (Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) – – – – • West. Map intends to take PRISM data one step further to create a “surface data reanalysis” – – – • developed by Spatial Climate Analysis Services / Oregon Climate Services at Oregon State University uses point data, a digital elevation model (DEM), and other spatial datasets to generate gridded estimates of annual, monthly, and event based climatic parameters a coordinated set of rules, decisions, and calculations designed to approximate the decision-making processes that an expert operational climatologist would make in creating a climate map currently has the most advanced algorithms for fine-scale mapping of climate data QA via quantitative measures and expert review recently used to create a 4 km scale gridded data set of monthly minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation for the conterminous United States covering the period of 1895 -2001 official updates of the Climate Atlas of the United States USDA precipitation and temperature maps for all fifty states analogous to the NCEP reanalysis projects and related interfaces 1 km-scale monthly surface climate data major part of the instrumental record (50 to 100 years, depending on data constraints) provide error estimation and quality assessment of the resulting data surfaces update the record with as close to “real time data” as possible Create the best available form of fine-scale climate data for mapping and monitoring – – in short, a fundamental climate data set with a multitude of uses also enables generation of other derived quantities will permit data to be aggregated into new user-defined polygons rather than climate divisions spatially detailed time histories of climate data will enable a wide range of basic and applied research

PRISM Modeling Approach

Error & Accuracy Assessment • Error/accuracy assessment is important but difficult – e. g. , data limitations at higher elevations require the use of any and all data points for those levels, but this simultaneously constrains the application of standard cross-validation techniques – maps with the lowest overall errors not necessarily the most accurate, when assessed with vegetation patterns, stream flow, expert review, and other independent methods • Will employ multiple quantitative measures and other expert and lay review approaches to understand communicate error • Also important to understand correct for sources of error – error is both time- and space-dependent • expect to encounter sources of modeling error manifesting themselves at seasonal, interannual and decadal scales • sources of error with spatial variability at local and regional scales – will likely parallel those in the observed climate data record – will need to tease apart those processes requiring representation in improved versions of the modeling algorithms

Data Analyses & Diagnostics • Investigations of patterns and process underlying variability and error in the West. Map data will also enable us to research a number of related complementary and critical questions • Examples: – – – – – fine-scale data response to large-scale atmospheric processes critical gaps in data coverage episode monitoring applications (e. g. , drought) sub-regional climate variability possible climate forecast model implementations of West. Map data consistency versus accuracy data assimilation and mapping expert/lay perceptions of climate information and delivery educational needs

Winter Precip & Anomalies

Data Access • • Primary user interface via WRCC (website, online tools, data downloads) Data cost approach similar to federally-managed climate datasets – online access at no cost to public sector government and educational users (“. gov” & “. edu”) – optional media (CD, tape, etc. ) and large or special requests available at nominal cost – fee structure for other interested users (e. g. , private sector) • Public-private collaboration – users of free data cannot release them to third-parties to circumvent the access restrictions – some PRISM data products are currently marketed through a licensing agreement between OSU and a private company, Climate Source, Inc. – this will remain the outlet for private sector data delivery – will provide increased financial support for the continued production of up to date climate maps for the public and private sector, adding to the database over time – valuable way to continue West. Map growth after tools have been developed and public funding enters a lower-level, operational phase • West. Map data storage – operationally stored at the Western Regional Climate Center – final archival storage at the National Climatic Data Center

Visualization Tools • Cannot overstate the crucial role of visualization for data analysis Online visualization tools are a cornerstone of West. Map development • – leading example: NOAA CDC’s online tools for the NCEP reanalysis data set – provides ability to manipulate, map, and associate data with other information (e. g. , climate indices) in real time – greatly improves the accessibility of the data for analysis and download by all categories of users – core reason for the success and widespread use of the reanalysis data – Similarly, WRCC has developed a variety of online data plotting tools • West. Map will capitalize on these activities – development of specific new tools for spatial and temporal analysis – likely incorporation of West. Map data into above data analysis portal sites • Visualization tools will be developed from the outset – Selected 4 km PRISM data are already publicly available – will form the initial dataset for development of West. Map visualization tools while the 1 km data are being produced

• Animation • Zoom – pixels, polygons • Time Plots • Multi-panel display

Education/Outreach Resources • West. Map-type data are intuitive and appealing to many users – especially because they are based on observational data • But, there are important caveats to be communicated – the data are nonetheless synthetic – appropriate use is contingent upon understanding how they were developed • Also a need to provide educational & outreach resources – for K-12, universities and broader stakeholders – West. Map includes development of interactive educational materials – explain critical metadata, including caveats and error estimation – information resources to enable meaningful data interpretation and applications

West. Map Consortium Membership Roles • Unique climate mapping needs & challenges of the West are the driving forces behind the genesis of West. Map – • Consortium of institutions with extensive expertise and experience in western U. S. climatological research – • – will participate in data quality analyses and sub-regional scale climate variability research using West. Map data to develop finer scale seasonal-annual climate forecasting efforts broad experience and expertise in climate analyses and working with major resource decision-makers via CAP RISA USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) – – • responsible for development, operation (production, quality control) and refinement of the 1 km PRISM data sets continued supply of updated data grids via link to Climate Source, Inc. Scripps Institution of Oceanography (Scripps) – – – • will host the user interface, data access & visualization engine will continue to be a primary supplier of observed climate data to the OSU PRISM system will maintain the stored West. Map data products and coordinate final archiving via links to NCDC Oregon State University (OSU) Spatial Climate Analysis Service – – • primary project coordination, in collaboration with other consortium members stakeholder linkages, development of educational resources, aspects of data visualization, climate variability research, and social science aspects of West. Map extensive experience working with climate information and stakeholders through its RISA project, CLIMAS Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC) – – – • also climate mapping techniques, social science of climate & impacts, information transfer to technical users and stakeholders University of Arizona (UA) – – • therefore, West. Map is an initiative undertaken “by the West and for the West” research partner through data evaluation and data application assessment primary source of high elevation precipitation (SNOTEL) data for PRISM stakeholder via drought monitoring, water management, and water-related forecasting responsibilities long-time sponsor of PRISM product development. NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC) – – – development of data assimilation and online analysis tools for the West. Map data sets quantitative data quality assessment, links to data assimilation in climate forecast applications expertise and experience in the development of online user interface-application tools for accessing gridded climate data

West. Map Funding Strategy • Build the West. Map idea, simultaneously obtain funding from a range of sources – – wide range of stakeholders and potential users many do not have the budgetary resources to completely support such an initiative thus, define as an initiative that will attract partial, leveraged funding for several sub-projects obtain broad “buy-in” from multiple agencies / institutions • will better engage the climate data user community in funding a common data source – investigating multiple sources of funding • • • federal agencies (e. g. , NSF, NOAA, NASA, USDA, USGS) and multi-agency initiatives, Western Governor’s Association and/or Congressional funding, public-private enterprise programs, and others given importance for western stakeholders, explore RISA resources West. Map is a large effort that needs substantial financial support – set of postdocs, programmers, and grad students across several institutions – ideally, 3 -5 years of funding on the order of $200 -500 K+ per year – will support the core development and initial operational components of the initiative • Explore public-private partnership to support continued data production – take advantage of lower level of reliable steady support – follows high-cost development phase • costs of storing/serving established data sets could be partly absorbed into regular operations – major future upgrades will still need conventional funding

West. Map Status • Held an organizational planning meeting – January 8 -9, 2003, hosted by UA/CLIMAS – established West. Map Consortium – defined objectives of the West. Map initiative • Initial efforts now officially underway – – – consortium has begun looking for funding partners Website coming soon CDC lead on ESDIM proposal PACLIM, Climate Diagnostics Workshop Contacting agencies/program managers