Скачать презентацию Welcome to class of International Financial Forces Скачать презентацию Welcome to class of International Financial Forces

8dd17b20b89f1928ef6a6552ff291208.ppt

  • Количество слайдов: 39

Welcome to class of International Financial Forces & Finance Management Dr. Satyendra Singh Professor, Welcome to class of International Financial Forces & Finance Management Dr. Satyendra Singh Professor, Marketing and International Business University of Winnipeg Canada s. [email protected] ca http: //abem. uwinnipeg. ca www. abem. ca/conference

Outline • • • Purchasing Power Parity Factors affecting Foreign currency Fisher’s Effect Arbitrage Outline • • • Purchasing Power Parity Factors affecting Foreign currency Fisher’s Effect Arbitrage Hedge (Forward, Currency option, Money Market) Transfer Pricing Swap (Parallel loan, Bank, Currency) Debt vs. Equity Impact of Culture on Accounting Standards

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)… – The number of units of a currency required to Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)… – The number of units of a currency required to buy the same amount of goods and services in a domestic market that $1. 00 would buy in the U. S. – Helps to make comparisons possible across economies CIA Fact Book

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) If, 1 Lt. Milk US India $1. 00 Rs. 20. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) If, 1 Lt. Milk US India $1. 00 Rs. 20. 00 Then, PPP: US $1 = Rs. 20 Reality: US $1 = Rs. 40 ie Rs. Is 50% undervalued –artificially? !

Factors affecting Foreign Currency • Three factors: – Inflation – Interest rate – Speculation Factors affecting Foreign Currency • Three factors: – Inflation – Interest rate – Speculation • Fisher’s Effect – Diff. in interest rate may determine strength of FOREX € 1 = $1. 5, Interest rate: € (3%) and $(5%) Speculation: Which currency becomes weaker/stronger?

Inflation and the International Company. . § § § § § High inflation rates Inflation and the International Company. . § § § § § High inflation rates Make capital expenditure planning more difficult Cause the cost of goods and services to rise Tend to cause BOP deficits Could lead to more restrictive fiscal or monetary policies, currency controls, export incentives, and import obstacles Encourage borrowing because the loan will be repaid with cheaper money Bring high interest rates Discourage lending Make capital expenditure planning more difficult

Atlas Conversion Factor • It is used for speculation Average of FOREX for the Atlas Conversion Factor • It is used for speculation Average of FOREX for the last 2 years adjusted by the ratio of domestic inflation and combined inflation of US, UK, EU and Japan

Weak Foreign Currency… Weak Foreign Currency…

Weak Foreign Currency… Weak Foreign Currency…

Weak Foreign Currency… (thousand) Weak Foreign Currency… (thousand)

Weak Foreign Currency… (million) Weak Foreign Currency… (million)

Weak Foreign Currency (billion) Weak Foreign Currency (billion)

Weak Foreign Currency (trillion) Weak Foreign Currency (trillion)

No Foreign Currency No Foreign Currency

Border: Rwanda and Burundi Border: Rwanda and Burundi

Foreign Exchange Office in Africa Foreign Exchange Office in Africa

Arbitrage: The process of buying and selling instantaneously to make profit at no risk Arbitrage: The process of buying and selling instantaneously to make profit at no risk Brazil Riel 1: 3 1: 2 5 dinar Algeria Dinar Chile Peso 1: 5

Movement of $, Transfer Pricing Customer $10 Local business Supplier $1 Profit $9 Say, Movement of $, Transfer Pricing Customer $10 Local business Supplier $1 Profit $9 Say, 30% tax $6. 30 Net profit $2. 70 tax

Movement of $, Transfer Pricing Customer $10 $9 Local business Supplier $1 Foreign $8 Movement of $, Transfer Pricing Customer $10 $9 Local business Supplier $1 Foreign $8 Now profit $1 Say, 30% tax 33 Cents tax!

Movement of $, Transfer Pricing – 3 countries UK $100 to produce Sells at Movement of $, Transfer Pricing – 3 countries UK $100 to produce Sells at $110 Profit $10 Tax 50% Tax paid $5 OFC: Jamaica Sells at $210 Profit $100 Tax 5% Tax paid $5 USA Sells at $220 Profit $10 Tax 30% Tax paid $3. 33

OFC: Offshore Ffinancial Centres § Offshore financial center specializes in financing nonresidents, low taxes OFC: Offshore Ffinancial Centres § Offshore financial center specializes in financing nonresidents, low taxes and few banking regulations § Too small to exist on its own § Boosts economy § Employment § § § § Switzerland Cayman Island Hong Kong Bahamas Bermuda Gibraltar Luxemburg …

Transaction Exposure: Hedging § process to reduce or eliminate financial risk § Forward market Transaction Exposure: Hedging § process to reduce or eliminate financial risk § Forward market hedge § Foreign currency contract sold or bought forward in order to protect against foreign currency movement § Currency option hedge § Option to buy or sell specific amount of foreign currency at specific time to protect against foreign currency risk § Money market hedge § Method to hedge foreign currency exposure by borrowing and lending in domestic and foreign money markets

Forward Hedge • Hedge is a process to reduce risk € 1 = $1. Forward Hedge • Hedge is a process to reduce risk € 1 = $1. 5 (now/spot) € 1 = $1. 6 (speculate/forward) Interest rate: € (3%) and $(5%) $ is expected to be weak Suppose you have accounts receivables for € 20, 000 If quoted in €, supplier may not have problem But strong currency is desirable by both seller and buyer If you quoted in € (ie € 20, 000 x 1. 5 = $30, 000), You now get $ (ie € 20, 000 x 1. 6 = $32, 000) You gained: $2000, because $ became weak You lose, if $ became stronger (say 1. 4) = $2, 000

Currency Option Hedge • So you have accounts receivables in a currency that works Currency Option Hedge • So you have accounts receivables in a currency that works best for your company • Firms may have bank accounts in multiple currencies such as Dollar, Euro, Yen… to avoid conversion charges.

Money Market Hedge • Counter balancing the risk by borrowing the same amount for Money Market Hedge • Counter balancing the risk by borrowing the same amount for FOREX (A/R) in domestic market and investing it until accounts receivables are received Suppose the AR is € 20, 000 (in 90 days) € 1 = $1. 4 (expected) $ is expected to be strong! € 1 = $1. 5 (now) Interest rate: € (5%) and $(3%) Borrow € 20, 000 convert in $ (€ 20, 000 x 1. 5 = $30, 000) Invest Income (but pay interest) After 90 days, pay € 20, 000 to local bank, so no debt So, Investment + income - interest ≥ € 20, 000

Last Friday Fri: June 16 (LAST) Mon: June 19 (SPOT) Source: Wall Street Journal, Last Friday Fri: June 16 (LAST) Mon: June 19 (SPOT) Source: Wall Street Journal, Exchange rate June 19, 2006

Swaps § Parallel Loans § Matched loans across currencies made to cover risk § Swaps § Parallel Loans § Matched loans across currencies made to cover risk § Bank Swap § Swap made between banks to acquire temporary foreign currencies § Currency Swap § Exchange of debt service of loan or bond in one currency for debt service of loan or bond in another currency

Parallel Loan Swap CANADA: INDIA: Canada (parent) Canada (child) $1 m Rs. 40 m Parallel Loan Swap CANADA: INDIA: Canada (parent) Canada (child) $1 m Rs. 40 m $1 = Rs. 40 India (child) India (parent)

Bank Swap Canadian parent in Canada $1 m Indian Bank in India Canadian Bank Bank Swap Canadian parent in Canada $1 m Indian Bank in India Canadian Bank in Canada Rs. 40 m Canadian child in India Canadian Parent deposits $1 m to the credit of the Indian Bank The Correspondent Indian Bank lends Rs. 40 m (spot rate) to the Child At a later agreed date, the Child returns Rs. 40 m to Indian Bank instructs the Canadian Bank to pay $1 m to the Parent So, no conversion of $1 to Rs. Useful if you want hard currency only

Correspondent Bank Correspondent Bank

Currency Swap CANADA I am Known here So the interest rate is low for Currency Swap CANADA I am Known here So the interest rate is low for me CYPRUS Same is true for the Cypriot person in Cyprus So, I take the loan for the Cypriot guy In Canada at low interest rate $1. 5 m Person does the same for me in Cyprus (€ 1 m) Then, we swap currency, i. e. , I service the loan in € for the Cypriot guy in CYPRUS And the Cypriot guy services my loan in $ in Canada € 1 = $1. 5

Capital Structure of a Firm § Debt Borrow from Bank § Conservative, report less, Capital Structure of a Firm § Debt Borrow from Bank § Conservative, report less, ↓ tax exposure, ↑ dividend pay out save $ to service debt France, Germany, Japan, some Emerging Markets § Debt financing is less expensive than equity financing, because interest paid on debt is tax deductible, but dividends paid out to shareholders are not. § Equity Shares, Bonds § Impressive (Inflated report) to attract investors § Value of Bond ↓, if interest rate ↑

How do Bonds perform? Suppose, now you have bonds worth $10, 000 @5% for How do Bonds perform? Suppose, now you have bonds worth $10, 000 @5% for a year So expect $500 at the end of the year Now, interest rate changed to 6% Value of your bond now is: $x x. 06 = $500 ie x = $8334 Drop in value = 17%!

Cultural Differences in Measurement and Disclosure for Accounting Systems Cultural Differences in Measurement and Disclosure for Accounting Systems

Annual Reports § Depends § § § Calculation of Inventory Depreciation Income only when Annual Reports § Depends § § § Calculation of Inventory Depreciation Income only when contract is complete Valuation of assets Goodwill … § So we need uniform accounting system

International Accounting Standards • Triple Bottom Line Standard (3 BL) – Environmental, social, and International Accounting Standards • Triple Bottom Line Standard (3 BL) – Environmental, social, and financial impacts of the business • International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) • International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) • Sarbans-Oxley Act (2002, US) – Public Company Accounting Reform and Investor Protection Act (in the Senate) – Corporate and Auditing Accountability and Responsibility Act (in the House) – Heavy penalty for corporate finance fraud

Use of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) Use of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS)

Tax System • Direct Tax – Income Tax – VAT – Value Added Tax Tax System • Direct Tax – Income Tax – VAT – Value Added Tax • Indirect Tax (Withholding Tax) – Dividend – Interest – Royalty

Corporate Tax Rates Corporate Tax Rates