Web 2 0 發展趨勢盧希鵬國立台灣科技大學資訊管理系教授 1

Web 2. 0 發展趨勢盧希鵬國立台灣科技大學資訊管理系教授 1

大綱 o o Web 1. 0不曾泡沫化：贏者全拿（Web 2. 0 呢？） Web 2. 0改變了什麼？ n n n o The Person of the Year: YOU 真正人類的聲音市場的結構 Web 2. 0營運模式 2

Web 1. 0不曾泡沫化：贏者全拿（Web 2. 0呢？） Growth What’s next Machine to Machine (科技化服務業) People to Machine People to People Web 1. 0 Web 2. 0 網路內容由菁英決定商品由店家提供印刷術、總編輯星狀網路 UGC（User-Generated Content） Sharing Building Social Network (分散又聯結) Time 3

Web 2. 0 Value Content Context User-Generated Content • Content • Webware • Mushup Individual Community Building Social Network Commerce Sales, Service, Marketing Market Structure Tech Long Tail • Make • Search • Access Sharing • e-Personality • Real Voice of Human Beings Social Capital Web 2. 0 Economy • Community • Cluster • Weak Tie • Sales • Service • Marketing [此模式為台灣科大與台北大學合作之研究計畫] 4

Tech: 電子商務不曾泡沫化 Growth Social Capital Intellectual Capital Time 5

Tech Sales Tech: 產生長尾效應麻雀變鳳凰取得長尾(低access cost) （低searching cost） Search Access Make 造成長尾 (高Uniqueness) 品項排行榜 6

Tech Make o 生產具（文字、音樂、影片編輯、數位相機、Picasa、手機攝影） n 生產者＝消費者：業餘專家、烏合之眾的力量（群眾智慧、夠多的手、與眼睛） n 個人出版的成本降低（作家、歌星、演員…. ） o Search 太多選擇(喜歡）＝無從選擇（交易）（MP 3, 果醬試吃、i. Pod, Netflix） n 協助選擇（推薦）：買A也買B、評比、排行榜（從他性）、和你類似人的選擇、個人化、Tag n 出版成本高：前篩（預測）。出版成本低：後篩（評比） o Access 存取：整合長尾、平台、手機、On-Demand 數位服務、數位庫存、物流 7

Tech 經營模式：Content-Oriented Provider (2) Mushup Provider Intellectual Capital Provider User Content Filtering (1) Webware User (3) Recommending Social Capital Make Webware: allowing people to download or use webware to accomplish specific services. (Writely, Picasa) Search Content: developing recommending or filtering systems to help people get the personalized information. (Amazon, Adword) Access Mushup: integrating multiple sources of information and website functions. (Housing. Map mushups Google map and apartment rental information from Craigslist to a house searching engine. ) 8

Individual o n n o 不做作無關品質、關於你是否有話說、你可以作錯！人們為什麼要分享 n o Individual 真正人類的聲音： n o 人類聲音線上人格 Individual 名譽經濟學：不求名、不求利、只求爽助人心理學不在乎平均、只在乎個人（別人無用但我有用）忠誠與Switching Cost（逃避自由） n n n Procedure Finance Relation 9

線上人格人類聲音 Individual Web 2. 0營運模式 Context: As a context-oriented business model, the business does not provide information, but operates as a platform that allows people to share their articles, photos, music…. . etc. with each other. Avoiding the complexity of navigation, the model operators have to aggregate and structure information of multi-sources for the users through navigation services. Examples of context-oriented model consist of My. Space, Youtube, User Wikipedia, Digg, e. Bay…. etc. [Yu, 2007] User Context User 10

Social Network: Metcalfe’s Law User 2 x(2 -1) = 2 User 3 x(3 -1) = 6 User 2 x(2 -1) = 2 + User 2 x(2 -1) = 2 User n x (n-1) ≒ n 2 User = User 4 x(4 -1) = 12 Social Network 若有n個人使用電話，它的通訊方向的價值便有 n(n-1)種，如果n很大的話，就趨近於n平方種了使用人數由二人增加到四人（2倍），通訊的方向便由二種到十二種（卻有６倍）網路世界中鼓勵合作與聯盟。獲得關鍵臨界數量的企業，將大者恆大。累進學習的重要 11

Social Network Innovation Diffusion & Strong Tie User Cluster User User Cluster Hub or Authority User Innovation Diffusion & Weak Tie User User Cluster 12

Social Network Small World (Nexus) 14 15 User 16 13 User 17 1 12 User User 2 User 3 User 4 User 5 User 6 11 10 9 8 User 7 13

Social Network 經營模式：Community-Oriented User User User User Community: Gathering People as clusters. Connection: building social network rather than accumulate content. Through on-line sharing and collaboration, people can connect with friend’s friends to enlarge their social network. ( Linkedin, Cy. World, Facebook, Myspace, ) 14

Market Structure 結論：下一步(市場＝人群結構) Transformation Youtube AS IS Blog Amazon Context Content Community TO BE Adword Market Structure Cyworld Linkedin Web 1. 0 e-Publish Site G Site H Web 2. 0 e-Society 15

結論：新市場 Community Community Community Community Market Segment to Social Network Outsourcing （菁英智慧） to Crowdsourcing （群眾智慧） Platform Content Mushup Webware Context 前篩預測（Make & sales） to 後篩評價（Sense & Response 人來（店址） to 我去（人群）大眾統計（提供選擇） to 小眾個人（協助選擇） 16

Market Structure 結論：Web 2. 0新經濟 Web 2. 0 New Economy Individual Social Network Market Structure Tech Content Context User-Generated Content Community Building Social Network Commerce Sales, Service, Marketing 17

Market Structure 結論：新機會 o 機會在哪裡（Customer） n Marketing n Sales： n o Service Community 獲取機會的能力在哪裡 (Compentence) n Intellectual Capital n Social Capital Community 競爭者在哪裡（Competition） o 極化 Polarization Community Community Community Platform Content Mushup Webware Context 18

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Market Structure o 機會在哪裡（Customer） n n n o o Marketing Sales： Service 競爭者在哪裡（Competition）獲取機會的能力在哪裡(Company) n n Intellectual Capital Social Capital Community Community Community Community Platform Content Mushup Webware Context 20

Integration Branding & Identity Brand A Strategy Brand B Brand C Contents Solution Market Segment to Social Network Outsourcing（菁英智慧） to Crowdsourcing（群眾智慧討論以長遠為考量的系統整合方案網站整合更新專案 21

o o o 人來OR我去大眾OR小眾機會在哪裡（Customer） n n o o Marketing Sales：供需決定價格（彈性價格）、統購 Service 競爭者在哪裡（Competition）獲取機會的能力在哪裡(Company) n n Intellectual Capital Social Capital 22

Web 2. 0 Business Model 人類聲音線上人格 Individual 強弱連結 Access Supplier Social 小 Network 世界 Search Tech 創新擴散 Make Customer Market Structure Service Marketing Sales [此模式為台灣科大與台北大學合作之研究計畫]23

e. Company Buy Side Supplier IPS SCM 供應鏈管理 ERP EIP 資源管理 Partner GW+KMS EDMS 知識管理 Employee Sell Side IRM PRM 專案管理 e-Marketing Customer 行銷管理 Stockholder 24

Design Flash Consulting Coding Creative Contents Strategy Sopping Marketing ebiz Integration Mailing e. CRM e. Solution Interaction IRM UMS System CTI Server VOC/ RMS e. Learning D/B 25

Partner Network Process Offer Opportunity Value Configuration Cost Structure Value Proposition Strategy Customer Relationship Target Customer Revenue Streams 26

Web 2 0 發展趨勢 盧希鵬 國立台灣科技大學資訊管理系教授 1

Web 2 0 發展趨勢盧希鵬國立台灣科技大學資訊管理系教授 1