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Web 2. 0 發展趨勢 盧希鵬 國立台灣科技大學資訊管理系教授 1 Web 2. 0 發展趨勢 盧希鵬 國立台灣科技大學資訊管理系教授 1

大綱 o o Web 1. 0不曾泡沫化:贏者全拿(Web 2. 0 呢?) Web 2. 0改變了什麼? n n 大綱 o o Web 1. 0不曾泡沫化:贏者全拿(Web 2. 0 呢?) Web 2. 0改變了什麼? n n n o The Person of the Year: YOU 真正人類的聲音 市場的結構 Web 2. 0營運模式 2

Web 1. 0不曾泡沫化: 贏者全拿(Web 2. 0呢?) Growth What’s next Machine to Machine (科技化服務業) People Web 1. 0不曾泡沫化: 贏者全拿(Web 2. 0呢?) Growth What’s next Machine to Machine (科技化服務業) People to Machine People to People Web 1. 0 Web 2. 0 網路內容由菁英決定 商品由店家提供 印刷術、總編輯 星狀網路 UGC(User-Generated Content) Sharing Building Social Network (分散又聯結) Time 3

Web 2. 0 Value Content Context User-Generated Content • Content • Webware • Mushup Web 2. 0 Value Content Context User-Generated Content • Content • Webware • Mushup Individual Community Building Social Network Commerce Sales, Service, Marketing Market Structure Tech Long Tail • Make • Search • Access Sharing • e-Personality • Real Voice of Human Beings Social Capital Web 2. 0 Economy • Community • Cluster • Weak Tie • Sales • Service • Marketing [此模式為台灣科大與台北大學合作之研究計畫] 4

Tech: 電子商務不曾泡沫化 Growth Social Capital Intellectual Capital Time 5 Tech: 電子商務不曾泡沫化 Growth Social Capital Intellectual Capital Time 5

Tech Sales Tech: 產生長尾效應 麻雀變鳳凰 取得長尾(低access cost) (低searching cost) Search Access Make 造成長尾 (高Uniqueness) Tech Sales Tech: 產生長尾效應 麻雀變鳳凰 取得長尾(低access cost) (低searching cost) Search Access Make 造成長尾 (高Uniqueness) 品項排行榜 6

Tech Make o 生產 具(文字、音樂、影片編輯、數位相機、Picasa、手機攝影) n 生產者=消費者:業餘專家、烏合之眾的力量(群眾智慧、夠多的手、與 眼睛) n 個人出版的成本降低(作家、歌星、演員…. ) o Search 太多選擇(喜歡)=無從選擇(交易)(MP Tech Make o 生產 具(文字、音樂、影片編輯、數位相機、Picasa、手機攝影) n 生產者=消費者:業餘專家、烏合之眾的力量(群眾智慧、夠多的手、與 眼睛) n 個人出版的成本降低(作家、歌星、演員…. ) o Search 太多選擇(喜歡)=無從選擇(交易)(MP 3, 果醬試吃、i. Pod, Netflix) n 協助選擇(推薦):買A也買B、評比、排行榜(從他性)、和你類似 人的選擇、個人化、Tag n 出版成本高:前篩(預測)。出版成本低:後篩(評比) o Access 存取:整合長尾、平台、手機、On-Demand 數位服務、數位庫存、物流 7

Tech 經營模式:Content-Oriented Provider (2) Mushup Provider Intellectual Capital Provider User Content Filtering (1) Webware Tech 經營模式:Content-Oriented Provider (2) Mushup Provider Intellectual Capital Provider User Content Filtering (1) Webware User (3) Recommending Social Capital Make Webware: allowing people to download or use webware to accomplish specific services. (Writely, Picasa) Search Content: developing recommending or filtering systems to help people get the personalized information. (Amazon, Adword) Access Mushup: integrating multiple sources of information and website functions. (Housing. Map mushups Google map and apartment rental information from Craigslist to a house searching engine. ) 8

Individual o n n o 不做作 無關品質、關於你是否有話說、你可以作錯! 人們為什麼要分享 n o Individual 真正人類的聲音: n o Individual o n n o 不做作 無關品質、關於你是否有話說、你可以作錯! 人們為什麼要分享 n o Individual 真正人類的聲音: n o 人類 聲音 線上 人格 Individual 名譽經濟學:不求名、不求利、只求爽 助人心理學 不在乎平均、只在乎個人(別人無用但我有用) 忠誠與Switching Cost(逃避自由) n n n Procedure Finance Relation 9

線上 人格 人類 聲音 Individual Web 2. 0營運模式 Context: As a context-oriented business model, 線上 人格 人類 聲音 Individual Web 2. 0營運模式 Context: As a context-oriented business model, the business does not provide information, but operates as a platform that allows people to share their articles, photos, music…. . etc. with each other. Avoiding the complexity of navigation, the model operators have to aggregate and structure information of multi-sources for the users through navigation services. Examples of context-oriented model consist of My. Space, Youtube, User Wikipedia, Digg, e. Bay…. etc. [Yu, 2007] User Context User 10

Social Network: Metcalfe’s Law User 2 x(2 -1) = 2 User 3 x(3 -1) Social Network: Metcalfe’s Law User 2 x(2 -1) = 2 User 3 x(3 -1) = 6 User 2 x(2 -1) = 2 + User 2 x(2 -1) = 2 User n x (n-1) ≒ n 2 User = User 4 x(4 -1) = 12 Social Network 若有n個人使用電話,它 的通訊方向的價值便有 n(n-1)種,如果n很大的 話,就趨近於n平方種了 使用人數由二人增加到四 人(2倍),通訊的方向便 由二種到十二種(卻有6 倍) 網路世界中鼓勵合作與聯盟。 獲得關鍵臨界數量的企業,將大者恆大。 累進學習的重要 11

Social Network Innovation Diffusion & Strong Tie User Cluster User User Cluster Hub or Social Network Innovation Diffusion & Strong Tie User Cluster User User Cluster Hub or Authority User Innovation Diffusion & Weak Tie User User Cluster 12

Social Network Small World (Nexus) 14 15 User 16 13 User 17 1 12 Social Network Small World (Nexus) 14 15 User 16 13 User 17 1 12 User User 2 User 3 User 4 User 5 User 6 11 10 9 8 User 7 13

Social Network 經營模式:Community-Oriented User User User User Community: Gathering People as clusters. Connection: building Social Network 經營模式:Community-Oriented User User User User Community: Gathering People as clusters. Connection: building social network rather than accumulate content. Through on-line sharing and collaboration, people can connect with friend’s friends to enlarge their social network. ( Linkedin, Cy. World, Facebook, Myspace, ) 14

Market Structure 結論:下一步(市場=人群結構) Transformation Youtube AS IS Blog Amazon Context Content Community TO BE Market Structure 結論:下一步(市場=人群結構) Transformation Youtube AS IS Blog Amazon Context Content Community TO BE Adword Market Structure Cyworld Linkedin Web 1. 0 e-Publish Site G Site H Web 2. 0 e-Society 15

結論:新市場 Community Community Community Community Market Segment to Social Network Outsourcing (菁英智慧) to Crowdsourcing 結論:新市場 Community Community Community Community Market Segment to Social Network Outsourcing (菁英智慧) to Crowdsourcing (群眾智慧) Platform Content Mushup Webware Context 前篩預測 (Make & sales) to 後篩評價 (Sense & Response 人來(店址) to 我去(人群) 大眾統計 (提供選擇) to 小眾個人 (協助選擇) 16

Market Structure 結論:Web 2. 0新經濟 Web 2. 0 New Economy Individual Social Network Market Market Structure 結論:Web 2. 0新經濟 Web 2. 0 New Economy Individual Social Network Market Structure Tech Content Context User-Generated Content Community Building Social Network Commerce Sales, Service, Marketing 17

Market Structure 結論:新機會 o 機會在哪裡(Customer) n Marketing n Sales: n o Service Community 獲取機會的能力在哪裡 Market Structure 結論:新機會 o 機會在哪裡(Customer) n Marketing n Sales: n o Service Community 獲取機會的能力在哪裡 (Compentence) n Intellectual Capital n Social Capital Community 競爭者在哪裡 (Competition) o 極化 Polarization Community Community Community Platform Content Mushup Webware Context 18

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Market Structure o 機會在哪裡(Customer) n n n o o Marketing Sales: Service 競爭者在哪裡(Competition) 獲取機會的能力在哪裡(Company) Market Structure o 機會在哪裡(Customer) n n n o o Marketing Sales: Service 競爭者在哪裡(Competition) 獲取機會的能力在哪裡(Company) n n Intellectual Capital Social Capital Community Community Community Community Platform Content Mushup Webware Context 20

Integration Branding & Identity Brand A Strategy Brand B Brand C Contents Solution Market Integration Branding & Identity Brand A Strategy Brand B Brand C Contents Solution Market Segment to Social Network Outsourcing(菁英智慧) to Crowdsourcing(群眾智慧 討論以長遠為考量的系統整合方案 網站整合更新專案 21

o o o 人來OR我去 大眾OR小眾 機會在哪裡(Customer) n n o o Marketing Sales:供需決定價格 (彈性價格)、統購 Service o o o 人來OR我去 大眾OR小眾 機會在哪裡(Customer) n n o o Marketing Sales:供需決定價格 (彈性價格)、統購 Service 競爭者在哪裡(Competition) 獲取機會的能力在哪裡(Company) n n Intellectual Capital Social Capital 22

Web 2. 0 Business Model 人類 聲音 線上 人格 Individual 強弱 連結 Access Supplier Web 2. 0 Business Model 人類 聲音 線上 人格 Individual 強弱 連結 Access Supplier Social 小 Network 世界 Search Tech 創新 擴散 Make Customer Market Structure Service Marketing Sales [此模式為台灣科大與台北大學合作之研究計畫]23

e. Company Buy Side Supplier IPS SCM 供應鏈管理 ERP EIP 資源管理 Partner GW+KMS EDMS e. Company Buy Side Supplier IPS SCM 供應鏈管理 ERP EIP 資源管理 Partner GW+KMS EDMS 知識管理 Employee Sell Side IRM PRM 專案管理 e-Marketing Customer 行銷管理 Stockholder 24

Design Flash Consulting Coding Creative Contents Strategy Sopping Marketing ebiz Integration Mailing e. CRM Design Flash Consulting Coding Creative Contents Strategy Sopping Marketing ebiz Integration Mailing e. CRM e. Solution Interaction IRM UMS System CTI Server VOC/ RMS e. Learning D/B 25

Partner Network Process Offer Opportunity Value Configuration Cost Structure Value Proposition Strategy Customer Relationship Partner Network Process Offer Opportunity Value Configuration Cost Structure Value Proposition Strategy Customer Relationship Target Customer Revenue Streams 26