Water Demand In Dhaka City Dr A K

Water Demand In Dhaka City Dr A. K. ENAMUL HAQUE Co-authors: MUNTASIR CHAUDHURY PARVEZ KARIM ABBASI

Objectives Assessing the demand for water for domestic, commercial and industrial users for the next 25 years in Dhaka.

Factors affecting demand for water Demand for water, by definition, includes the amount of water demanded by a unit of consumption for given socio -economic conditions, pricing strategy, basic human needs and for a given level of quality of life Therefore, to understand demand Household, commercial and industrial For household demand analysis Study conducted Detailed Household Survey

OUR PRESENTATIONS HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DESIGN PHASE IMPLEMENTATION PROFILE OF HOUSEHOLD IN DHAKA ESTIMATION OF DEMAND FOR WATER

HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA COLLECTED FROM ALL 7 DWASA Zones POPULATION – CHARATERISTICS BASED ON GIS MAPPING OF 30 WARDS (CENSUS) OF HOUSE TYPES TO REPRESENT ALL INHABITANTS OF DHAKA CITY CONNECTED TO DWASA 5 TYPES OF HOUSES ARE DEFINED 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Katcha - wall made of bamboo etc Semi-Pucca - brick wall and tin roof One-storey- concrete roof Mullti-storey-2 to 6 floors Hi-rise - 7 or more

Sampling Process BASED ON GIS MAP OF HOUSES IN 30 WARDS. GIS Data from various Zones Sample is proportional to distribution of house by type in each zone

The SAMPLE

THE INSTRUMENTS QUESTIONNIARES Several Modules – Major ones are: HOUSE CHARACTERISTICS WATER USE AND USE OF GADGETS PROBLEMS IN WATER DEMAND LIFE STYLE RELATED QUESTIONS INCOME, EDUCATION, ETC. PROFILE OF MEMBERS OF THE HOUSEHOLD

Survey implementation rules 13 members in the survey team 2 – one male and one female members in each team. Each zone was split into blocks using major roads. Each survey team was given a unique starting point for each day of survey. [systematic stratified random sampling] A master table using house type was used to select a sample using pre-defined structure of sample selection.

Basic survey rules Each sample must meet the criteria of the sample in terms house type. No U Turn at any point or going back Two consecutive left or right turns on a road are not allowed In case of a dead-end road, the team can fall back to the point from where they can take a turn.

Table 2. 2: Age of the Household

Characteristics in our houses

House type by income group

Demand Side issues

Water consumption by house type

Water consumption by living standard

Water Consumption by ranges of LCD

What factors affect water consumption? Regression output:

Water quality issues

Water supply interruptions

Source of Water

Demand forecast model

Existing DWASA zones

Demand 2005 -2030 - baseline

5 cases of improvement! Case I: Improvement in leakages from 30% to 20% Case II: Vertical rise in the height of multi-storey and hi-rise buildings Case III: Improvement in System loss plus Vertical rise of the city buildings Case IV: Demand Management Case V: Improvement in system loss plus vertical rise in heights of houses plus demand management

Baseline – plus 5 cases

LCD for baseline and 5 cases

Counterfactual scenarios of changes over time Scenario I: Like that of Motijheel Thana Scenario II: Like that of Ramna. Eskaton Area Scenario III: Like that of Mohakhali Thana Scenario IV: A Mixed Area – like Motijheel-Mohakhali-Ramna combined

Counterfactual scenarios

Scenario 1: Demand MLD

LCD for Scenario 1: Motijheel

Scenario II: Ramna-Eskaton

Scenario II: LCD

Scenario III: Mohakhali

Scenario III: LCD

Scenario IV: Mixed

Scenario IV: LCD

Literature on LCD – some findings

Demand Management Aspects

Cumulative Probabilities

Cumulative Probabilities

Summary Business as Usual Baseline Optimistic scenario Mixed + Case V Pessimistic scenario Ramna-Eskaton + Case V

Extended DWASA areas

Pessimistic …

Baseline….

Optimistic case