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Water as a Source of Conflict & Cooperation: Southern Africa Tufts Water Systems, Science Water as a Source of Conflict & Cooperation: Southern Africa Tufts Water Systems, Science & Society Interdisciplinary Research & Graduate Program 24 -28 February 2005 Medford, MA Dr. Anthony Turton Gibb-SERA Chair in Integrated Water Resource Management aturton@csir. co. za President: Universities Partnership for Transboundary Rivers www. transboundarywaters. orst. edu

Shared River Basins Africa’s shared river basins contain: • • • 61 % of Shared River Basins Africa’s shared river basins contain: • • • 61 % of the area 77 % of the people 93 % of the water © Pete Ashton N 0 500 Kilometres 1000

Shared Aquifer Systems Errachedia Basin Source: UNESCO (2004) Northern Sahara Basin Tindouf Aquifer Nubian Shared Aquifer Systems Errachedia Basin Source: UNESCO (2004) Northern Sahara Basin Tindouf Aquifer Nubian Sandstone Basin Mourzouk Djado Basin C Taoudéni Basin B A Irhazer Iullemeden Basin Awash. Djibouti Basin Chad Basin Upper Nile Basin Senegalo. Mauritanian Cote d’Ivoire- Benin-Togo. Nigeria Basin Ghana Coastal Aquifer A B L’Air Crystalline Aquifer C Rift Valley Secondary Aquifers E Mount Elgon Aquifer F Nata-Gwaai Aquifer K Tuli-Shashe Aquifer L Pafuri Alluvial Aquifer M Ramotswa Dolomite Aquifer N Karoo Sedimentary Aquifer Congo Coastal Aquifer Kenya. Tanzania Coastal Aquifer Shire Valley Alluvial Aquifer J G Upper Rovuma Aquifer I Merti Basin Congo Intra-Cratonic Basin Kilimanjaro Aquifer H F Kagera Aquifer G E Tin-Séririne Aquifer D © Pete Ashton Liptako-Gourma Aquifer Ogaden - Juba Aquifer D Cunene Coastal Aquifer I Okavango Aquifer J K Gariep Coastal Aquifer Rovuma Coastal Aquifer H Kalahari Aquifer M L Incomati Coastal Aquifer N N 0 500 Kilometres 1000

PERENNIAL RIVERS AND LAKES: SITES OF DISPUTES Perennial rivers © Pete Ashton Disputes usually PERENNIAL RIVERS AND LAKES: SITES OF DISPUTES Perennial rivers © Pete Ashton Disputes usually occur in zones where water availability is uncertain

MEAN ANNUAL RAINFALL D. R. C. ANGOLA TANZANIA ZAMBIA MOZABIQUE MALAWI Mean Annual Rainfall MEAN ANNUAL RAINFALL D. R. C. ANGOLA TANZANIA ZAMBIA MOZABIQUE MALAWI Mean Annual Rainfall (mm) ZIMBABWE = 860 mm isohyet NAMIBIA BOTSWANA = World average rainfall SADC Average Annual Rainfall = 948 mm SOUTH AFRICA © Pete Ashton 0 250 500 km SWAZILAND LESOTHO 2500 2000 1500 1250 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100

How Water Scarce is Southern Africa? © O’Keeffe et al How Water Scarce is Southern Africa? © O’Keeffe et al

Lake Chad Dams and hydraulic inf’structure in Southern Africa Nile Congo (DRC) Congo Tanzania Lake Chad Dams and hydraulic inf’structure in Southern Africa Nile Congo (DRC) Congo Tanzania Angola Rovuma Mozambique Zambia Kunene Zambezi Zimbabwe Cuvelai South Africa and Zimbabwe are listed amongst the top twenty countries in the world in terms of the numbers of dams built (WCD 2000) Malawi Pungué Buzi Save-Runde Okavango/ Makgadi Namibia Botswana Limpopo Incomati Umbeluzi Maputo Orange Swaziland South Africa © P Ashton N Lesotho 0 250 Kilometres 500

Lake Chad WATER TRANSFERS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA Nile Congo (DRC) Congo Tanzania Angola Rovuma Lake Chad WATER TRANSFERS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA Nile Congo (DRC) Congo Tanzania Angola Rovuma Mozambique Zambia Kunene Zambezi Zimbabwe Cuvelai Existing water transfer scheme Proposed new water transfer scheme © Pete Ashton Malawi Pungué Buzi Save-Runde Okavango/ Makgadi Namibia Botswana Limpopo Incomati Umbeluzi Maputo Orange Swaziland South Africa N Lesotho 0 250 Kilometres 500

WATER AVAILABLE PERSON IN 2002 AND 2025 2002 Water security Adequate water Water stress WATER AVAILABLE PERSON IN 2002 AND 2025 2002 Water security Adequate water Water stress Chronic scarcity © Pete Ashton Absolute scarcity

HADCM 3 Climate Model Projections using IPCC SRES A 2 Scenario showing Precipitation for HADCM 3 Climate Model Projections using IPCC SRES A 2 Scenario showing Precipitation for 2050 Source: Scholes & Biggs (2004: 4)

Hydro-Political Complex International River Basins Pivotal States Save-Runde PS PS - - - - Hydro-Political Complex International River Basins Pivotal States Save-Runde PS PS - - - - PS PS PS - - - IS IS - - - IS Mozambique - IS IS IS Swaziland - IS IS Lesotho IS Botswana SC PS South Africa PS PS Zimbabwe - Angola Zambia Malawi Tanzania Maputo Zambezi - PS Pungué Cunene PS Namibia Incomati PS Limpopo PS Orange PS Riparian States Impacted Okavango Pivotal - - Legend: PS = Pivotal State IS = Impacted State SC = Special case IS IS © A R Turton 2004 IS

Heavily Utilized Water Resources in Southern Africa Lake Chad Nile Congo (DRC) Congo Tanzania Heavily Utilized Water Resources in Southern Africa Lake Chad Nile Congo (DRC) Congo Tanzania Angola Rovuma Water resources approaching “closure” – very little left to allocate for off-channel uses Water resources under increased pressure – need to ensure closer co-operation with neighbouring states © Pete Ashton Mozambique Zambia Cunene Zambezi Zimbabwe Cuvelai Malawi Pungué Buzi Save-Runde Okavango/ Makgadi Namibia Botswana Limpopo Incomati Umbeluzi Maputo Orange Swaziland South Africa N Lesotho 0 250 Kilometres 500

Dependence on Neighbouring States for River Inflows / Water Transfers Degree of Dependence on Dependence on Neighbouring States for River Inflows / Water Transfers Degree of Dependence on Neighbouring States 0% 0 - 10 % 11 - 24 % 25 - 49 % © Pete Ashton > 50 % N 0 500 Kilometres 1000

Southern Africa was place where the Cold War got hot. This was in keeping Southern Africa was place where the Cold War got hot. This was in keeping with Kissinger’s doctrine of limited war… © A R Turton 1982

Strategic infrastructure was regularly targeted for tactical reasons © A R Turton 1982 Strategic infrastructure was regularly targeted for tactical reasons © A R Turton 1982

While water infrastructure became a Heavy metal seepage from mine target of war dumps While water infrastructure became a Heavy metal seepage from mine target of war dumps at different scales it was never a cause of war © A R Turton 1982

The water transfer pipeline from Calueque Dam in Angola to Namibia was in the The water transfer pipeline from Calueque Dam in Angola to Namibia was in the middle of a theatre of the Cold War © A R Turton 1982

The pipeline was attacked on occasion for tactical reasons The pipeline was attacked on occasion for tactical reasons

Yet despite being a combat zone high levels of cooperation in the field of Yet despite being a combat zone high levels of cooperation in the field of water resource management continued throughout the war © A R Turton 1982

This pump scheme is a strategic target but it was never attacked during the This pump scheme is a strategic target but it was never attacked during the war although the delivery pipeline did become a tactical target on occasion At the analytical level it is important to distinguish between the strategic and the tactical scale In hydropolitics scale matters…. © A R Turton 1982

Combat patrol along water and electricity infrastructure © A R Turton 1982 Combat patrol along water and electricity infrastructure © A R Turton 1982

Now the Cold War guns stand silent as Southern Africa engages in reconstruction centered Now the Cold War guns stand silent as Southern Africa engages in reconstruction centered on the management of transboundary water resources The first regional protocol signed when South Africa joined SADC was the protocol on shared watercourse systems © A R Turton 1999

© A R Turton 2004 Enabling former enemies to unite in their desire for © A R Turton 2004 Enabling former enemies to unite in their desire for post-conflict reconstruction through water resource management

While the journey has been rough it has always been in one direction – While the journey has been rough it has always been in one direction – ultimately towards peace and regional integration The mighty Zambezi is not easy to tame But it is an important regional resource that is shared…. © A R Turton 1995

Water and Cooperation • South Africa is a signatory to more than 70 treaties Water and Cooperation • South Africa is a signatory to more than 70 treaties relating to water (research ongoing). • Three of the four international river basins in SA have a comprehensive basin-wide agreement and accompanying River Basin Commission. • The fourth is currently under negotiation (Limpopo). • During the Cold War these cooperative agreements floated like islands of peace on a sea of violence and mistrust. • This is the foundation for regional integration and postconflict reconstruction in SADC.

The Importance of Scale Severe Many High Potential for dispute to occur Alternative Potential The Importance of Scale Severe Many High Potential for dispute to occur Alternative Potential options consequences available of a dispute for dispute resolution Few Mild Low Local National Geographical scale Regional

Africa is always full of surprises Thank You Africa is always full of surprises Thank You