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Visualization & validation of the Eumetsat’s fire product in Turkey İbrahim Sönmez, Erdem Erdi, Visualization & validation of the Eumetsat’s fire product in Turkey İbrahim Sönmez, Erdem Erdi, Ahmet E. Tekeli Remote Sensing Division Turkish State Meteorological Service [email protected] gov. tr 1

OUTLINE – Wild Fires (as a Natural Disaster) – Satellite use in Wild Fire OUTLINE – Wild Fires (as a Natural Disaster) – Satellite use in Wild Fire – Google-Earth representation of the Satellite Fire product – Fire fighting management aspect of the problem – Validation of the FIR products – Future study ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Wild Fires / Definition • Fire has been one of the major inventions of Wild Fires / Definition • Fire has been one of the major inventions of the mankind. ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Wild Fires / Definition • It has been a major driving force for the Wild Fires / Definition • It has been a major driving force for the civilization and many useful purposes on one hand. . . ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Wild Fires / Definition • And it has been the major enemy of the Wild Fires / Definition • And it has been the major enemy of the mankind on the other hand (especially when uncontrolled. . . ) ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Wild Fires/Effects • Effects are larger than regional scale – direct release of the Wild Fires/Effects • Effects are larger than regional scale – direct release of the aerosols • Monitored cautiously due to impact on; – Ecological environment – precipitation characteristics – climate ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Wild Fires/Monitoring • Various networks/methods are used for fire monitoring/fighting, – Monitoring towers – Wild Fires/Monitoring • Various networks/methods are used for fire monitoring/fighting, – Monitoring towers – Helicopters – Aircraft observations • Limited in time and area – Satellites are promissing tools with, – spatial and temporal resolution (e. g. , MSG; rss mode) ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Satellite use in Wild Fire a. ) Pre-Fire monitoring – NDVI indicates vegetation health Satellite use in Wild Fire a. ) Pre-Fire monitoring – NDVI indicates vegetation health – Browning of vegetation is monitored due to fire susceptibility. – Potential fire areas are determined ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Satellite use in Wild Fire Difference Ch. 3. 9 and 10. 8 m [K] Satellite use in Wild Fire Difference Ch. 3. 9 and 10. 8 m [K] Kongo b. ) Active fire monitoring – Fire spot detections – Monitoring fire spread – Tracking smoke transport Channel 04 (3. 9 m) Angola Kongo MSG imagery on 25 June 2003 at 10: 00 UTC Angola ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Satellite use in Wild Fire c. ) Post fire monitoring – Assessment of landscape Satellite use in Wild Fire c. ) Post fire monitoring – Assessment of landscape modifications Figure : False color from MODIS • See through smoke • indicate burn scars ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Satellite Fire Products Operational fire products: • MODIS rapid response system • NOAA-NESDIS Hazar Satellite Fire Products Operational fire products: • MODIS rapid response system • NOAA-NESDIS Hazar Mapping System • GOES - Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WFABBA) • EUMETSAT FIRE product ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

MSG FIR Product Data from EUMETSAT, Satellite: MET 09, Date: 2008/05/27 12: 15 Z MSG FIR Product Data from EUMETSAT, Satellite: MET 09, Date: 2008/05/27 12: 15 Z Row: 724 Col: 1249 Lat: -34. 020 Lon: 20. 994 *** Probable fire *** GOAL : To present FIR product in the most effective Row: 1161 Col: 1114 Lat: -19. 733 Lon: 22. 314 Possible fire and useful way! Row: 1161 Col: 1115 Lat: -19. 732 Lon: 22. 282 *** Probable fire *** Row: 1161 Col: 1116 Lat: -19. 731 Lon: 22. 249 Possible fire Row: 1162 Col: 1114 Lat: -19. 702 Lon: 22. 309 Possible fire Row: 1162 Col: 1115 Lat: -19. 701 Lon: 22. 276 Possible fire Row: 1162 Col: 1116 Lat: -19. 701 Lon: 22. 244 Possible fire Row: 1163 Col: 1115 Lat: -19. 671 Lon: 22. 271 Possible fire Row: 1231 Col: 1081 Lat: -17. 657 Lon: 23. 042 Possible fire Row: 1232 Col: 1081 Lat: -17. 627 Lon: 23. 037 Possible fire Row: 1239 Col: 996 Lat: -17. 489 Lon: 25. 815 Possible fire Row: 1249 Col: 1040 Lat: -17. 154 Lon: 24. 298 Possible fire Row: 1250 Col: 1040 Lat: -17. 125 Lon: 24. 293 Possible fire Row: 1250 Col: 1041 Lat: -17. 124 Lon: 24. 260 Possible fire Row: 1255 Col: 1077 Lat: -16. 948 Lon: 23. 061 Possible fire ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

MSG data representation Count data for Channel 9 (10. 8 m) 20090717 at 12: MSG data representation Count data for Channel 9 (10. 8 m) 20090717 at 12: 00 UTC What is the best way to present FIR product? ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Why Google Earth? A free application that enables 3 D Earth & 2 D Why Google Earth? A free application that enables 3 D Earth & 2 D Maps ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Why Google Earth? Google-Earth combines: • Satellite images • Maps • Geographic info – Why Google Earth? Google-Earth combines: • Satellite images • Maps • Geographic info – vegetation type/cover – settlemets –. . . etc ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Why Google Earth? Google-Earth media enables; Carbon emission Flood warning Weather info • the Why Google Earth? Google-Earth media enables; Carbon emission Flood warning Weather info • the interaction of the geographic info and the corresponding research data ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

MSG FIRE PRODUCT/Global May 27, 2008 @12: 15 UTC ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought MSG FIRE PRODUCT/Global May 27, 2008 @12: 15 UTC ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Processing chain @TSMS Data received by EUMETCast Wait for new scan Date/Time Check No Processing chain @TSMS Data received by EUMETCast Wait for new scan Date/Time Check No new product Subset Turkey region No Fire? Yes No Yes Prepere KML file Prepere ASCII file Data Storage for further analysis Release WARNING Google-Earth representation SMS * Gray areas under construction ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Case Study [15 August 2007] Forest fire near Manisa-İzmir roadway. . . ‘MSG Land Case Study [15 August 2007] Forest fire near Manisa-İzmir roadway. . . ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Case Study [15 August 2007 10: 20] ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ Case Study [15 August 2007 10: 20] ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Google-Earth representation ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Google-Earth representation ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Google-Earth representation ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Google-Earth representation ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Google-Earth representation From fire fighters point of view, this visualization is useful for; gathering Google-Earth representation From fire fighters point of view, this visualization is useful for; gathering information about – related site – vegetation type/cover underneath the satellite footprint determination of the fire fighting strategy – accessibility information to the fire place – potential skimming water locations, such as lakes, reservoirs or rivers, for refilling tanks/carry buckets ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Aerial firefighting • Helicopters & Airtankers are commonly used ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought Aerial firefighting • Helicopters & Airtankers are commonly used ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

FIR Product Validation Fire records @ Ministry of Environment and Forestry(Mo. EF) Fire# Region FIR Product Validation Fire records @ Ministry of Environment and Forestry(Mo. EF) Fire# Region Management Municipality Starting date Start Ending time(h) date End Burnt time (h) area (ha) . . . 769 Izmir Gümüldür 11, 07, 06 1135 11, 07, 06 1835 0. 60 770 Muğla Kemer Akçay 11, 07, 06 1245 11, 07, 06 1845 0. 20 771 Antalya Taşağil Sağrin 11, 07, 06 1320 11, 07, 06 1420 0. 01 772 Istanbul Kanlica Sultanbeyli 11, 07, 06 1430 11, 07, 06 1525 0. 01 773 Ankara Kizilcahamam 11, 07, 06 1400 11, 07, 06 1800 1. 00 774 Izmir Bayindir Beydağ 11, 07, 06 1245 12, 07, 06 1345 0. 20 775 Muğla Milas Mumcular 11, 07, 06 1730 12, 07, 06 0005 0. 10 . . . ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Mo. EF Municipality borders ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, Mo. EF Municipality borders ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Sample MSG Fire product & Mo. EF report representation Region: Elazıg; Management: Tunceli; Municipality: Sample MSG Fire product & Mo. EF report representation Region: Elazıg; Management: Tunceli; Municipality: Pulumur ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

MSG Fire product format conversion to Mo. EF format Satellite MET 08 Time 12: MSG Fire product format conversion to Mo. EF format Satellite MET 08 Time 12: 00 Z Latitude 36. 390 37. 080 Longitude 29. 670 27. 730 Type Possible Probable 38. 650 Year Date 22 August 2006 39. 380 Possible Month Day Time Region Management Municipality 2006 8 22 1200 Elazig 2006 8 22 1200 Mugla Milas Mumcular 2006 8 22 1200 Antalya Kas Gursu ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

MSG Fire product comparison with Mo. EF report Year. . . 2006. . . MSG Fire product comparison with Mo. EF report Year. . . 2006. . . Month Day Time Region Management Municipality 8 8 8 22 22 22 1200 Elazig Mugla Antalya Elazig Milas Kas Elazig Mumcular Gursu Fire Region Management Municipality Starting date Start Ending time(h) date End area time (h) (ha) . . . 769 770 771 772 773 Izmir Muğla Antalya Istanbul Ankara Izmir Kemer Taşağil Kanlica Kizilcahamam Gümüldür Akçay Sağrin Sultanbeyli Kizilcahamam 11, 07, 06 11, 07, 06 1135 1245 1320 1430 1400 11, 07, 06 11, 07, 06 1835 1845 1420 1525 1800 0. 60 0. 20 0. 01 1. 00 774 775 Izmir Muğla Bayindir Milas Beydağ Mumcular 11, 07, 06 1245 1730 12, 07, 06 1345 0005 0. 20 0. 10 ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

MSG Fire product comparison with Mo. EF report Time Period : 12 July to MSG Fire product comparison with Mo. EF report Time Period : 12 July to 30 August 2006 Hit Definition : FIR product fell in the time period of any Mo. EF report and the RMM information of both matched exactly. Base Match Mismatch Total Hit ratio Mo. EF 297 1612 1909 15. 6% ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Discussion /a) Area Effect ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, Discussion /a) Area Effect ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

b) Starting & Ending Time • Starting and Ending time information in the Mo. b) Starting & Ending Time • Starting and Ending time information in the Mo. EF reports assumed to be correct • They may not be accurate to some extent and sometimes they refer to merely estimates. Shift effect of the Start & End time of the ground fire ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

c) Geolocation of fire • Ground-based fire reports mainly use Region. Management-Municipal format to c) Geolocation of fire • Ground-based fire reports mainly use Region. Management-Municipal format to determine geolocation of the fire • Such misrepresentation of the RMM information is possible since there is no physical boundary in the Municipal level • This is a more dramatic problem especially in case of the boundary crossing fires • Better data collection may be performed by using Global Positioning System ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

d) Wild fire but which type? • It was noted that some of the d) Wild fire but which type? • It was noted that some of the FIR-detected fires are located in nonforested regions. • Actually, these areas are farming lands and stubble burning coincides with the study period. • However, the stubble fires are mostly not included in Mo. EF reports. • Landuse map (forest cover) is needed! ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Summary • FIR product is capable of detecting forest fires with some percentage of Summary • FIR product is capable of detecting forest fires with some percentage of success. • Cloud mask is NOT considered in the study • ‘Probable’ and ‘Possible’ product labels are treated with equal importance. Their effect on accuracy should be evaluated separately. • increasing FIR hit ratio percentages are observed with increasing burnt area amount. • shift in the starting & ending time in Mo. EF reporst yielded higher hit ratios • Better data collection may be performed by using Global Positioning System • Reliable ground data is must! ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Future Study • Regional adjustments in the test tresholds will be considered to get Future Study • Regional adjustments in the test tresholds will be considered to get higher hit ratios Potential Fire Test Fire Day (K) Night (K) Test A (IR 3. 9) 310 290 Test B (σ3. 9) 2. 5 4 4 Test C (IR 3. 9 -IR 10. 8) 8 0 10 5 Test D (σ10. 8) 2 2 • 1 km. X 1 km landuse from AVHRR is planned to be used forest cover. • Cloud mask (by Nowcasting SAF) is planned to be considered ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria

Comments/Questions ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria Comments/Questions ‘MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires’ 7 -10 September, 2009 Sofia, Bulgaria