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VIPs and Crisis Management Giovanni Marizza gianni. marizza@yahoo. it 26 May 2014, 15. 00 VIPs and Crisis Management Giovanni Marizza gianni. marizza@yahoo. it 26 May 2014, 15. 00 – 19. 00

Chaim Weizmann Chaim Weizmann

The Crisis: n World War 1, opportunity of establishing a Jewish «foyer» in Palestine, The Crisis: n World War 1, opportunity of establishing a Jewish «foyer» in Palestine, 1918

The Crisis Management: n n n Correct forecast, supporting the winners Employment of a The Crisis Management: n n n Correct forecast, supporting the winners Employment of a Jewish Brigade with the British troops Balfour Declaration annexed to the Peace treaty

The Result: n Success: base for the future establishment of a Jewish State The Result: n Success: base for the future establishment of a Jewish State

David Ben-Gurion דוד בן-גוריון David Ben-Gurion דוד בן-גוריון

The Crisis: n World War 2, Shoah: The Crisis: n World War 2, Shoah:

The Crisis Management: n n n Again employment of Jewish military units with British The Crisis Management: n n n Again employment of Jewish military units with British troops Sharpness Farsightedness Capacity of foresight Exploitation of the western excitability

The Result: n n n Success: establishment of the self-declared Jewish state, military regional The Result: n n n Success: establishment of the self-declared Jewish state, military regional power Problem: source of instability for the region (wars with Arab States), not yet solved Yesterday Pope Francis: “Two states!”

Valentina Imre Nagy Valentina Imre Nagy

The Crisis: n Uprising in Hungary, 1956 The Crisis: n Uprising in Hungary, 1956

The Crisis Management: n n n No help by the West NATO: No Action, The Crisis Management: n n n No help by the West NATO: No Action, Talk Only Contemporary Suez crisis, catalyzing the Western attention

The Result: n n Failure, repression Communist regime consolidated Nagy killed by the Soviets The Result: n n Failure, repression Communist regime consolidated Nagy killed by the Soviets 43 years later: Hungary first to join NATO

Gamal Abdel Nasser Gamal Abdel Nasser

The Crisis: n Suez crisis, 1956 The Crisis: n Suez crisis, 1956

The crisis management: n n n Willingness of exploiting the Arab pride Blockade of The crisis management: n n n Willingness of exploiting the Arab pride Blockade of the Canal, nationalization of the “Company of the Suez Canal” (FR-UK property) Underevaluation of the Western resolve Ingenuousness after the FR-UK ultimatum Incapacity to recognize the Western trap

End of the crisis: US/SU intervention n n USA : colonial enterprise, threat to End of the crisis: US/SU intervention n n USA : colonial enterprise, threat to damage British interests by economic means USSR: threat to “nuke” London and Paris

The result: n n Failure Canal reopened The result: n n Failure Canal reopened

Martin Charles De Gaulle Martin Charles De Gaulle

The Crisis: n Independence of Algeria, 1954 -1962 The Crisis: n Independence of Algeria, 1954 -1962

The Crisis Management: n n n n Uprising: born in Indochina (1954) 1954 -62: The Crisis Management: n n n n Uprising: born in Indochina (1954) 1954 -62: Counter-insurgency, torture, terrorism, napalm, concentration camps (2 M) FLN: based in Egypt (!) 1958: pied-noirs favour the return of CDG strategy: ambiguity, new constitution, Algeria “associated territory” Internal fracture 6 July 1962: referendum, independence

The Result: n n More failure than success Algeria independent France close to civil The Result: n n More failure than success Algeria independent France close to civil war European territory loses more than 50%

John Fitzgerald Kennedy John Fitzgerald Kennedy

The Crisis: n Pig Bay enterprise, Cuba, 1961 The Crisis: n Pig Bay enterprise, Cuba, 1961

The Crisis Management: n n Approximate planning by CIA during the Eisenhower presidency 3 The Crisis Management: n n Approximate planning by CIA during the Eisenhower presidency 3 monts after JFK election: Operation Zapata vs Castro regime (politico-economic reasons) Cuban expatriates and CIA agents landing in Cuba Excessive confidence in Cuban population behaviour

The Result: n n n Complete failure Damage for the image of JFK (electoral The Result: n n n Complete failure Damage for the image of JFK (electoral campaign: peace, freedom…) Kruscev: “Of what freedom are you speaking? ”

Andrea John Fitzgerald Kennedy Andrea John Fitzgerald Kennedy

The Crisis: n Missiles crisis, Cuba, 1963 The Crisis: n Missiles crisis, Cuba, 1963

The Crisis Management: n n Correct diplomatic action Avoiding any military intervention The Crisis Management: n n Correct diplomatic action Avoiding any military intervention

The Result: n n n Success: Soviet withdrawal Missiles threath disappeared Failure: US promised The Result: n n n Success: Soviet withdrawal Missiles threath disappeared Failure: US promised to tolerate the Cuban communist regime (source of instability for the region and outside, exportation of the revolution, regime surviving still today)

Yuri Aleksander Dubcek Yuri Aleksander Dubcek

The Crisis: n Uprising in Czechoslowakia, Prague Spring 1968 The Crisis: n Uprising in Czechoslowakia, Prague Spring 1968

The Crisis Management: n n n NATO cannot intervene Doctrine Breznev (Limited sovereignty) Warsaw The Crisis Management: n n n NATO cannot intervene Doctrine Breznev (Limited sovereignty) Warsaw Pact (minus Romania) intervenes militarily

The Result: n n Failure, but: 31 years later: Czech Republic first to join The Result: n n Failure, but: 31 years later: Czech Republic first to join NATO

Herbert Ernst Karl Frahm Herbert Ernst Karl Frahm

Herbert Ernst Karl Frahm (Willy Brandt) Herbert Ernst Karl Frahm (Willy Brandt)

The Crisis: n Palestinian attack to the Israeli Olimpic Team, Munich, 1972 The Crisis: n Palestinian attack to the Israeli Olimpic Team, Munich, 1972

The Crisis Management: n n n Unpreparedness Superficiality Refusal of the offer by a The Crisis Management: n n n Unpreparedness Superficiality Refusal of the offer by a specialized Israeli team

The Result: n n Failure. . . but the terrorists were all captured and The Result: n n Failure. . . but the terrorists were all captured and killed by Mossad

Yitzhak Rabin יצחק רבין Yitzhak Rabin יצחק רבין

The Crisis: n Entebbe raid, Uganda, 1976 The Crisis: n Entebbe raid, Uganda, 1976

The Crisis Management: n n High risk, but: Perfect planning Perfect simulation (airport similar The Crisis Management: n n High risk, but: Perfect planning Perfect simulation (airport similar to that of Entebbe, in order to train the Special Forces) High professionality

The Result: n Great success The Result: n Great success

Jimmy Carter Jimmy Carter

The Crisis: n Hostages kidnapping, US embassy Tehran, 1979 -1981 The Crisis: n Hostages kidnapping, US embassy Tehran, 1979 -1981

The Crisis Management n n n Military option: Imperfect planning Misfortune (sandstorm, crash between The Crisis Management n n n Military option: Imperfect planning Misfortune (sandstorm, crash between 2 aircraft)

The Result: n n Complete failure Hostages released after 444 days (as soon as The Result: n n Complete failure Hostages released after 444 days (as soon as the successor of Carter was elected)

Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan

The Crisis: n 1980: Alarm about Global Warming The Crisis: n 1980: Alarm about Global Warming

The Crisis Management: n n Alarmistic report under Carter presidency (Jason advisory organization) Nierenberg The Crisis Management: n n Alarmistic report under Carter presidency (Jason advisory organization) Nierenberg report (with fake data, in order to reduce alarm) The survival of industrial/technological lobby prevails on the survivability of common people (Great Smog, UK!) Political will dominates scientific world

The Result: n n Partial success (the problem is postponed) Failure: combating global warming The Result: n n Partial success (the problem is postponed) Failure: combating global warming today is more difficult

Menachem Begin מנחם בגין Menachem Begin מנחם בגין

The Crisis: n Destruction of the nuclear reactor Osirak, Iraq 1981 The Crisis: n Destruction of the nuclear reactor Osirak, Iraq 1981

The Crisis Management: n n Perfect planning Courage Calculated external risk (international community, USA The Crisis Management: n n Perfect planning Courage Calculated external risk (international community, USA included, against preventive attacks) Acceptance of internal risk (in case of failure, Israeli government had to resign)

The Result: n n n Perfect success End of Iraqi nuclear ambitions Israel: a The Result: n n n Perfect success End of Iraqi nuclear ambitions Israel: a safer country

Rebecca Margaret Thatcher Rebecca Margaret Thatcher

The Crisis: n Falklands / Malvinas war The Crisis: n Falklands / Malvinas war

The Crisis Management: n n n Strong resolve Authoritarian management (Iron Lady) The Crisis Management: n n n Strong resolve Authoritarian management (Iron Lady)

The Result: n n Success British pride The Result: n n Success British pride

Margaret Thatcher Margaret Thatcher

The Crisis: n 1985: measures against hooligans after the Heysel tragedy (Bruxelles) The Crisis: n 1985: measures against hooligans after the Heysel tragedy (Bruxelles)

The Crisis Management: n n n Strong and immediate countermeasures adopted by the Brish The Crisis Management: n n n Strong and immediate countermeasures adopted by the Brish Government against Supporter Clubs Prohibition of external activities British Government: more effective than UEFA

The Result: n n n Success Defeat of violent hooligans Good example (not always The Result: n n n Success Defeat of violent hooligans Good example (not always followed) foreign countries

Olof Palme Olof Palme

The crisis: n Threat of Prime Minister’s assassination The crisis: n Threat of Prime Minister’s assassination

The crisis management: n n n Refusal of personal protection by Olof Palme Decision The crisis management: n n n Refusal of personal protection by Olof Palme Decision to adopt a low profile by Social. Democratic Party just to contradict the predecessor Liberal Party Mix of ideology, idealism, fatalism, underestimation of the threat

The result: n Failure, assassination of Prime Minister The result: n Failure, assassination of Prime Minister

Mihail Gorbaciov Mihail Gorbaciov

The Crisis: n Chernobyl disaster, 1986 The Crisis: n Chernobyl disaster, 1986

The Crisis Management n n n Underevaluation of the threat Maintaining the secret Ineffective The Crisis Management n n n Underevaluation of the threat Maintaining the secret Ineffective measures

The Result: n Failure The Result: n Failure

Saddam Hussein Saddam Hussein

The crisis: n 1990: Iraq occupies Kuwait; kidnapping of Western hostages (human shields) The crisis: n 1990: Iraq occupies Kuwait; kidnapping of Western hostages (human shields)

The crisis management n n n 10. 000 hostages Aim 1: dissuade West from The crisis management n n n 10. 000 hostages Aim 1: dissuade West from bombing Aim 2: divide each state (government / public opinion) EU prohibits talks with SH (solution: secret talks) Dozens of trips to Iraq by VIPs, LIPs or NAOIPs

The result: n n Immediate Iraqi success, Western world extremely divided At medium-long term: The result: n n Immediate Iraqi success, Western world extremely divided At medium-long term: a failure (war, loss of Kuwait, SH ousted, captured, jailed, trialed, hanged)

Aldo Ajello Aldo Ajello

The Crisis: n Mozambique civil war and UN intervention, 1992 -1994 The Crisis: n Mozambique civil war and UN intervention, 1992 -1994

The Crisis Management: n n n n Application of the perfect algorythm: - UN The Crisis Management: n n n n Application of the perfect algorythm: - UN deployment - demining - withdrawal of refugees - collecting weapons - elections - new army - UN withdrawal

The Result: n n Success End of civil war Start-up of a solid democracy The Result: n n Success End of civil war Start-up of a solid democracy Reconciliation

Richard Holbrooke Richard Holbrooke

The Crisis: n Nineties: implosion of former Yugoslavia, 1995: civil war in Bosnia-Herzegovina The Crisis: n Nineties: implosion of former Yugoslavia, 1995: civil war in Bosnia-Herzegovina

The Crisis Management: n n Shuttle diplomacy Cohercitive diplomacy The Crisis Management: n n Shuttle diplomacy Cohercitive diplomacy

The Result: n n Success: end of war (Dayton agreement) Failure: Agreement stops war, The Result: n n Success: end of war (Dayton agreement) Failure: Agreement stops war, doesn’t establish peace

Ariel Sharon אריאל שרון Ariel Sharon אריאל שרון

The Crisis: n Between XX, XXI century: wave of suicide attacks in Israel The Crisis: n Between XX, XXI century: wave of suicide attacks in Israel

The Crisis Management: n Building of the Wall The Crisis Management: n Building of the Wall

The Result: n Success (attacks reduced to zero) The Result: n Success (attacks reduced to zero)

Viktor Chernomyrdin Виктор Черномырдин Viktor Chernomyrdin Виктор Черномырдин

The Crisis: n Hostages kidnapping at Budyonnovsk hospital The Crisis: n Hostages kidnapping at Budyonnovsk hospital

The Crisis Management: Debatable negotiation with terrorists n Special Forces not well trained n The Crisis Management: Debatable negotiation with terrorists n Special Forces not well trained n

The Result: n Failure The Result: n Failure

Slobodan Milošević Слободан Милошевић Slobodan Milošević Слободан Милошевић

The Crisis: n Kosovo crisis, 1998 -1999 The Crisis: n Kosovo crisis, 1998 -1999

The Crisis Management: Refusal by Milosevic of international proposals (OSCE mission headed by Felipe The Crisis Management: Refusal by Milosevic of international proposals (OSCE mission headed by Felipe Gonzales, withdrawal od Serbian Special Forces from Kosovo) n 23 Apr. 1998, referendum: is Kosovo an internal or foreign case? (98%: internal!) n

The Result: Failure n Rambouillet talks without outcome n NATO attack n Consequence: independence The Result: Failure n Rambouillet talks without outcome n NATO attack n Consequence: independence of Kosovo n

Vladimirovic Putin Влади мирович Пу тин Vladimirovic Putin Влади мирович Пу тин

The Crisis: n 2000: Sinking of Kursk submarine The Crisis: n 2000: Sinking of Kursk submarine

The Crisis Management: Lack of interest (he remains on leave) n Poor respect for The Crisis Management: Lack of interest (he remains on leave) n Poor respect for human life n Keeping the secret in any case n Refusal of external specialized help (Norwegian team) n

The Result: n Failure, tragedy The Result: n Failure, tragedy

Zoran Đinđić Зоран Ђинђић Zoran Đinđić Зоран Ђинђић

The Crisis: n Threat to the life of Serbian Prime Minister The Crisis: n Threat to the life of Serbian Prime Minister

The Crisis Management: Underevaluation of the threat n Approximate personal security n The Crisis Management: Underevaluation of the threat n Approximate personal security n

The Result: n n n Failure (Prime Minister assassinated) Success (new pro-Western policy, economic The Result: n n n Failure (Prime Minister assassinated) Success (new pro-Western policy, economic reforms, fight against ciminality, Milosevic’s capture) Milosevic rendered to ICC

Pajwak George W. Bush Pajwak George W. Bush

The Crisis: n Al Qaeda attack against the Twin Towers and the Pentagon, 11 The Crisis: n Al Qaeda attack against the Twin Towers and the Pentagon, 11 September 2001

The Crisis Management: n Though measures against terrorism The Crisis Management: n Though measures against terrorism

The Result: Domestic policy: success (national cohesion) n Foreign policy: failure (decadeslong campaigns in The Result: Domestic policy: success (national cohesion) n Foreign policy: failure (decadeslong campaigns in Iraq, Afghanistan, wave of anti. Americanism) n

Vladimirovic Putin Влади мирович Пу тин Vladimirovic Putin Влади мирович Пу тин

The Crisis: n 2002: Terrorist attack against the “Dubrovka” theater The Crisis: n 2002: Terrorist attack against the “Dubrovka” theater

The Crisis Management: Strong resolve n Strong, brutal measures (gas employed against everybody: terrorists The Crisis Management: Strong resolve n Strong, brutal measures (gas employed against everybody: terrorists and innocent people) n

The Result: n “Success” The Result: n “Success”

Gerhard Fritz Kurt Schroeder Gerhard Fritz Kurt Schroeder

The Crisis: n 2002: Flood in the Western German regions The Crisis: n 2002: Flood in the Western German regions

The Crisis Management: n Political cynicism, opportunism (during the electoral campaign, a picture of The Crisis Management: n Political cynicism, opportunism (during the electoral campaign, a picture of him in the middle of the mud permits him to gain a certain percentage)

The Result: Success (Schroeder wins the elections) n Consequence: Germany (2003) doesn’t intervene in The Result: Success (Schroeder wins the elections) n Consequence: Germany (2003) doesn’t intervene in Iraqi crisis, Europe divided n

Lewis Paul “Jerry” Bremer III Lewis Paul “Jerry” Bremer III

The Crisis: n Iraqi reconstruction, 2003 The Crisis: n Iraqi reconstruction, 2003

The Crisis Management: Ignorance of the local situation n Ignorance of previous lessons learned The Crisis Management: Ignorance of the local situation n Ignorance of previous lessons learned (Germany, Japan) n Disbandment of Iraqi Armi n Disbandment of the Ba’ath Party n

The Result: Failure n CPA: Cannot Provide Anything n Today’s Iraq is not a The Result: Failure n CPA: Cannot Provide Anything n Today’s Iraq is not a safer place n

Jose Maria Alfredo Aznar Lopez Jose Maria Alfredo Aznar Lopez

The Crisis: n Atocha Station terrorist attack, Madrid 2004 The Crisis: n Atocha Station terrorist attack, Madrid 2004

The Crisis Management: Willingness of politically exploiting attacks n Attempt to blame ETA (political The Crisis Management: Willingness of politically exploiting attacks n Attempt to blame ETA (political elections) n

The Result: n n n Failure Aznar’s Party loses the elections Consequence: the new The Result: n n n Failure Aznar’s Party loses the elections Consequence: the new Prime Minister (Zapatero) withdraws Spanish military units from Iraq

Vladimirovic Putin Влади мирович Пу тин Vladimirovic Putin Влади мирович Пу тин

The Crisis: n 2004: terrorist attack against the school of Beslan The Crisis: n 2004: terrorist attack against the school of Beslan

The Crisis Management: n n Strong mesures Brutal repression The Crisis Management: n n Strong mesures Brutal repression

The Result: Success n All terrorists killed n The Result: Success n All terrorists killed n

George W. Bush George W. Bush

The Crisis: n 2005: hurricanes Kathrina, Rita The Crisis: n 2005: hurricanes Kathrina, Rita

The Crisis Management: Poor resources (National Guard, materials, resources employed in Iraq) n Wrong The Crisis Management: Poor resources (National Guard, materials, resources employed in Iraq) n Wrong management, incorrect forecast: “Rita will pass over Houston”. n

The Result: Failure n Houston evacuation, disorders, 100 victims… and Rita never passed over The Result: Failure n Houston evacuation, disorders, 100 victims… and Rita never passed over Houston. n

Barak H. Obama Barak H. Obama

The Crisis: n Deepwater Horizon disaster, oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico The Crisis: n Deepwater Horizon disaster, oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico

The Crisis Management: n Subjection to the oil companies The Crisis Management: n Subjection to the oil companies

The Result: Failure n Environmental disaster n The Result: Failure n Environmental disaster n

Sohiala Nicholas Sarkozy Sohiala Nicholas Sarkozy

The Crisis: n 2011: Libyan crisis The Crisis: n 2011: Libyan crisis

The crisis management: Media campaign stressing the casus belli (popular uprising, brutal government’s repression) The crisis management: Media campaign stressing the casus belli (popular uprising, brutal government’s repression) n Lessons learned of Suez 1956: USA must be involved n

The result Success n More prestige for France in the Mediterranean n More Libyan The result Success n More prestige for France in the Mediterranean n More Libyan energy resources for France (at the expenses of Italy) n

Bashar al-Assad Bashar al-Assad

The crisis: n Civil war in Syria The crisis: n Civil war in Syria

The crisis management: Strongpoints of the regime: n Reliance on regime’s supporters (Iran, Russia, The crisis management: Strongpoints of the regime: n Reliance on regime’s supporters (Iran, Russia, Hezbollah…) n Russia’s support in exchange of a naval base n Western weakness (Obama: reset with Russia) n

The result? n n n Success? (no international consensus about military option) Re-election next The result? n n n Success? (no international consensus about military option) Re-election next 3 June? (no opposition, elections organized by the regime, 1/3 of population: displaced…) Chemical weapons to be destroyed by 30 June? (85% not enough, possibility to use hidden stocks in order to blame opposition)

VIPs and Crisis Management Giovanni Marizza gianni. marizza@yahoo. it 26 May 2014, 15. 00 VIPs and Crisis Management Giovanni Marizza gianni. marizza@yahoo. it 26 May 2014, 15. 00 – 19. 00