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Video Games Industry Overview Video Games Industry Overview

Moi? ¡ Ph. D – Games and AI @ NU l ¡ Humanities/Art Background Moi? ¡ Ph. D – Games and AI @ NU l ¡ Humanities/Art Background @ U of C 5 years working with l l Game Developers Conference International Game Developers Assoc. Academic Outreach ¡ Game Studies Curriculum ¡

Moi, aussi. ¡ Other work: l l l Animate Arts at Northwestern Game Design Moi, aussi. ¡ Other work: l l l Animate Arts at Northwestern Game Design & Tuning Workshop Experimental Gameplay Workshop AAAI Games Workshops Indie Game Jam Misc. Travel & Conferences

Talk Overview Industry Background ¡ Industry Overview ¡ Trends & Highlights ¡ Issues & Talk Overview Industry Background ¡ Industry Overview ¡ Trends & Highlights ¡ Issues & Opportunities ¡ Wrapping up ¡

Industry Background Industry Background

Development Snapshot ¡ ¡ 1999 3 -5 people 12 -18 months $100 k->$400 k Development Snapshot ¡ ¡ 1999 3 -5 people 12 -18 months $100 k->$400 k Many games had little marketing $$ ¡ ¡ 2003 20 -100+ people 15 -30+ months $2 million -> $10 m+ Any game done will have real marketing

Publishing Snapshot ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ Publishers Pay for development Own the IP Market Publishing Snapshot ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ Publishers Pay for development Own the IP Market and Sell Move boxes to retail Handle QA and CS Focus test Manage many projects ¡ ¡ ¡ Developers Build all content Build all technology Large dedicated team Often on milestones Some internal QA … with many exceptions

Market Snapshot A ¡ Overall l l ¡ ~20 publishers, 700+ development groups ~1200 Market Snapshot A ¡ Overall l l ¡ ~20 publishers, 700+ development groups ~1200 new titles on PC and Console in ’ 02 “$12 b software sales” in ’ 02 35% aggregate revenue growth in ’ 02 Games & Platforms l l l Ever. Quest: ~400, 000 subscribers Game Boy: over 100 million total Sony: 70 million+ shipped consoles by 2003

Market Snapshot B ¡ NOT as big as Hollywood l l 2002 US domestic Market Snapshot B ¡ NOT as big as Hollywood l l 2002 US domestic game sales: $5. 5 billion 2002 US domestic box office: $9. 1 billion ¡ 2002 US Leisure/Ent. Book Sales: $9. 5 billion 2002 US Music Sales: $12. 2 billion 2001 NAB/TVB US ad revenue: $54. 4 billion ¡ We are still a niche medium ¡ ¡ l l 2002 US domestic games units: 162. 7 million 2992 US domestic movie tix: 1. 9 BILLION

Lots to figure out! Competing visions about what is happening, and why. ¡ Big Lots to figure out! Competing visions about what is happening, and why. ¡ Big picture thinking is hazy. ¡ Generally reactive, not proactive

Industry Overview Industry Overview

Hot topics? Publishers Managing Risk ¡ “Mass Market” Penetration ¡ Innovation and Technology ¡ Hot topics? Publishers Managing Risk ¡ “Mass Market” Penetration ¡ Innovation and Technology ¡ Mobile and Social gaming ¡

The current “vibe” ¡ Conservative Times l l l Projects: larger and more expensive The current “vibe” ¡ Conservative Times l l l Projects: larger and more expensive New Technology: threatens stability of established development practices Evaluation: What makes a game successful?

Projects Platform Choice ¡ Team Size/Capabilities ¡ Genre/Market ¡ Original IP or Sequel ¡ Projects Platform Choice ¡ Team Size/Capabilities ¡ Genre/Market ¡ Original IP or Sequel ¡ How to Differentiate?

Technology New or Leveraged ¡ Original or Licensed ¡ Network/Community requirements ¡ Which bangs Technology New or Leveraged ¡ Original or Licensed ¡ Network/Community requirements ¡ Which bangs and whistles ¡ Long-term strategies and goals?

Evaluation Who is buying? ¡ Why? ¡ What? ¡ Who are we ignoring? ¡ Evaluation Who is buying? ¡ Why? ¡ What? ¡ Who are we ignoring? ¡ How can we grow our market?

Trends & Highlights Trends & Highlights

Quality is up! Everything looks pretty spectacular ¡ PC games are still selling ¡ Quality is up! Everything looks pretty spectacular ¡ PC games are still selling ¡ Online = on line! ¡ Interesting console games get press ¡ l Katamari Damacy!

New Ideas Emerging ¡ Selling stuff l l ¡ Making stuff l ¡ Steam New Ideas Emerging ¡ Selling stuff l l ¡ Making stuff l ¡ Steam Online Console Content Creation Design l l Episodic games Simulation and procedural animation

Good news? Despite glitches, games are selling. ¡ Particularly: ¡ l l Racing games Good news? Despite glitches, games are selling. ¡ Particularly: ¡ l l Racing games Sports games Shooters (WWII & Sci. Fi) Sims

Bad news? ¡ Christmas Crunch l l l ¡ Which to buy? How many Bad news? ¡ Christmas Crunch l l l ¡ Which to buy? How many to buy? When to buy? Top 10 titles more competitive l Good or bad. . . depending on who you are

Issues & Opportunities Issues & Opportunities

A friend of mine says. . . Kim Pallister (Intel) ¡ CES 2005 ¡ A friend of mine says. . . Kim Pallister (Intel) ¡ CES 2005 ¡ Same basic points! ¡ Summary follows. . . ¡

Biz Stuff Consolidation ¡ Collapse of vertical model ¡ Expanded “channels”, increased market share Biz Stuff Consolidation ¡ Collapse of vertical model ¡ Expanded “channels”, increased market share ¡ Geoffrey Moore's “Crossing the Chasm” and “Inside the Tornado” ¡

Parallelism ¡ Already happening l l l ¡ multi-threading streaming architectures Xbox 2, PS Parallelism ¡ Already happening l l l ¡ multi-threading streaming architectures Xbox 2, PS 3, PC: converging on a hybrid ¡ PC's already there (CPU + GPU). “this will be the most challenging transition facing the game development community since the move from 2 D to 3 D. ”

Mobile Games ¡ What is a “mobile game”? l l Platform strengths Limitations New Mobile Games ¡ What is a “mobile game”? l l Platform strengths Limitations New audiences New “verbs” or “memes”?

Asia 300 M+ broadband over 4 -5 years. ¡ not just a new segment Asia 300 M+ broadband over 4 -5 years. ¡ not just a new segment – “potentially THE BIGGEST SEGMENT of players so far” ¡ Huge impact on all fronts ¡

Beyond Graphics “Great Game Graphics – Who Cares? ” ¡ Physics and Simulation ¡ Beyond Graphics “Great Game Graphics – Who Cares? ” ¡ Physics and Simulation ¡ Puppets -> Actors ¡

I’ve been noticing. . . Game. Tech 2004 ¡ Tech directors, graphics folks ¡ I’ve been noticing. . . Game. Tech 2004 ¡ Tech directors, graphics folks ¡ Common issues and strategies ¡ Issues anyone can learn from ¡

Innovation = expensive Tool chains ¡ Design ¡ Communication ¡ Management ¡ Innovation = expensive Tool chains ¡ Design ¡ Communication ¡ Management ¡

Research = expensive Small games, small audiences ¡ Marketing and sales ¡ What a Research = expensive Small games, small audiences ¡ Marketing and sales ¡ What a flop teaches us ¡ l l Tomb Raider: AOD Prince of Persia I and II

Simple things Animation blending ¡ Agent Coordination ¡ Application of simple models ¡ l Simple things Animation blending ¡ Agent Coordination ¡ Application of simple models ¡ l l Lanchester’s law Planning

Players become producers Player communities and mods ¡ Asia and Outsourcing ¡ Game studies Players become producers Player communities and mods ¡ Asia and Outsourcing ¡ Game studies and Game Design ¡ ? ? ¡

Diversity = key New ideas ¡ Better ears ¡ Better eyes ¡ l Quality Diversity = key New ideas ¡ Better ears ¡ Better eyes ¡ l Quality of Life

Wrapping up Wrapping up

Lots of hard problems Biz: Long-term vision needed ¡ Marketing: Plenty of room to Lots of hard problems Biz: Long-term vision needed ¡ Marketing: Plenty of room to grow ¡ Startup: DIY hard, but still possible ¡ Design: Innovation will be key ¡ Mgmt: increasingly important ¡

Contact Robin Hunicke ¡ hunicke@cs. northwestern. edu ¡ www. cs. northwestern. edu/~hunicke ¡ Questions, Contact Robin Hunicke ¡ hunicke@cs. northwestern. edu ¡ www. cs. northwestern. edu/~hunicke ¡ Questions, please!!