User optimized weather and power forecasts Fostering acceptance

User optimized weather and power forecasts: Fostering acceptance through dialog - Bridging the gap between meteorology and the energy sector - Daniel Lee, V. Stauch, I. Alberts

Grid management in the age of renewables Renewable proportion in power mix Current Goal from federal energy concept 2010 With expanded energy corridor (coalition contract 2013)

Grid management in the age of renewables TSOs have the priority of ensuring energy safety and stability § Stabile frequency (50 Hz) and voltage (380/220 k. V) § Balanced supply and demand Power can only be transmitted using existing infrastructure http: //www. solarbusinessfocus. com German High-Voltage Transmission System

Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze

Power grid Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze

REA Power grid Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze Power market Power trading and renewable energy act (REA) require long-distance power transfers

REA Power grid Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze Power market Power trading and renewable energy act (REA) require long-distance power transfers

REA Power grid Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze Power market Power trading and renewable energy act (REA) require long-distance power transfers

REA Power market The grid is becoming a power transport system Power grid Problems: n-1 safety Voltage & frequency maintenance Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze Power trading and renewable energy act (REA) require long-distance power transfers

Spatial distribution of supply and demand Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze

Number of (n-1) critical situations Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Events* 2 15 51 172 387 228 312 290 998 970 1009 Days 2 14 51 105 185 144 156 161 308 344 356 * Ereignisse, in deren Folge Maßnahmen nach § 13 En. WG und § 11 EEG ergriffen wurden; ohne Spannungsprobleme Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze

Grid management in the age of renewables EWe. Li. NE: Development of innovative weather and power forecast models for the grid integration of weather dependent energy sources Turbulence effects at the windpark Horns Rev, west coast of Denmark, 12. Feb. 2008, 13: 00. Photo: Christian Steiness

TSOs: Current forecast usage Traditional use of meteorological data: Long-term climate data for siting

TSOs: Current forecast usage New use of meteorological data: Day-ahead and intraday forecasts for grid management Fraunhofer IWES, 2014

TSOs: Current forecast usage Since early 2000 s: Direct use of DWD forecasts for wind power forecasts Additionally: Inofficial use of secondary weather products Wetteronline. de

Current forecast shortcomings Nonetheless, errors can be large enough to endanger grid stability! 6000 MW error: Trade necessary Projected production Day ahead Intraday 3000 MW error: Power balancing necessary

Current forecast shortcomings Most errors in grid projections are from renewable feed-in, which is weatherdependent. Wind § Front passages (intensity and spatiotemporal positioning) § Bias in stable conditions § Diurnal cycle Photovoltaic § After passage of cold fronts § Convection § Low stratus clouds § Snow cover Additional gains can come from using probabilistic forecasts.

Fostering adoption: User dialog Temperature Energy users come from a nonmeteorological background are used to deterministic forecasts Easy: Single forecast as projected “truth“ “Hard” initial condition Forecast time

Fostering adoption: User dialog Temperature Energy users come from a nonmeteorological background are used to deterministic forecasts Distribution of initial belief Forecast time Hard: Confidence communicated as a probability density function

Fostering adoption: User dialog Before product development begins: Discussions with users, workplace visits to understand their needs

Fostering adoption: User dialog Before product development begins: Discussions with users, workplace visits to understand their needs Throughout the development process: Frequent meetings, brainstorming sessions, training with new products, etc.

Fostering adoption: User dialog Example: Users would like to see probability of windspeed from 2 directions First try:

Fostering adoption: User dialog Example: Users would like to see probability of windspeed from 2 directions First try: Too complicated!

Fostering adoption: User dialog Example: Users would like to see probability of windspeed from 2 directions Second try: kn 30 Just right! 20 10 -20 -30 time 1 2 3 6

Fostering adoption: Flexible technical solutions Firewall DWD (weather forecast) Web server Weather forecasts Weather products WMS / WFS Geo. Server TSOs (grid management) EWe. Li. NE Demonstration System GUI (Java. FX + Web. Kit) Weather web client (DWD) Firewall Power forecasts IWES (power forecast) Power products Power client (IWES)

Fostering adoption: Flexible technical solutions EWe. Li. NE weather web client

Fostering adoption: Flexible technical solutions Custom plots for user locations Custom mashups to match user‘s needs

Fostering adoption: Flexible technical solutions Seamless integration in (semi-) automated decision support systems

Thanks for listening! Team at DWD: Daniel Lee Isabel Alberts Kristina Lundgren Zied Ben Bouallegue Annika Schomburg Stefan Declair Jonas von Schumann Tobias Heppelmann Vanessa Stauch Richard Keane Andrea Steiner Carmen Köhler Andreas Röpnack Regina Kohlhepp Gernot Vogt Visit us at http: //projekt-eweline. de/en Elsewhere at WWSOC: § UAS-PS 304. 03 Sunday 14: 20 – 14: 40 (Kristina Lundgren) § POM Monday 15: 00 – 16: 30 (Daniel Lee) § POT Tuesday 15: 00 – 16: 30 (Kristina Lundgren, Jonas von Schumann) § SCI-PS 179. 02 Tuesday 17: 00 – 17: 20 (Annika Schomburg) § SCI-PS 220. 03 Wednesday 14: 20 – 14: 40 (Jonas von Schumann)