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Use of Statistical Techniques in Market Research An overview Use of Statistical Techniques in Market Research An overview

What is market research? l l l Essentially analysing peoples relationships to brands/products/policy FMCG/Services/social What is market research? l l l Essentially analysing peoples relationships to brands/products/policy FMCG/Services/social policy Two components: • Qualitative • Quantitative • Both do the ‘same’ thing • build models

Broad brush strokes l l Who do you want to talk to? Has someone Broad brush strokes l l Who do you want to talk to? Has someone else/you talked to the above? Why do you want to talk to them? How will this information be used?

Examples l l Poll survey – eg. Colmar Brunton Poll Market segmentation • Can Examples l l Poll survey – eg. Colmar Brunton Poll Market segmentation • Can I simplify thinking about my customers into easier to understand segments l Customer satisfaction studies • What should I change (and how) my customers experience of this service

Examples l Advertising effectiveness l Which products should I launch • At what price/ Examples l Advertising effectiveness l Which products should I launch • At what price/ what features

Colmar Brunton Poll l l Sampling – talk to eligible voters Sample needs to Colmar Brunton Poll l l Sampling – talk to eligible voters Sample needs to be representative Needs to be done in 1 -4 days CATI interviewing used Question wording very important

One News Colmar Brunton poll One News Colmar Brunton poll

One News Colmar Brunton poll RELEASED: Sunday 5 th November 2008 POLL CONDUCTED: Evenings One News Colmar Brunton poll RELEASED: Sunday 5 th November 2008 POLL CONDUCTED: Evenings of 1 st-5 th October 2007 inclusive SAMPLE SIZE: N = 1010, Eligible Voters SAMPLE SELECTION: Random nationwide selection using a type of stratified sampling to ensure the sample includes the correct proportion of people in urban and rural areas. SAMPLE ERROR: Based on the total sample of 1010 Eligible Voters, the maximum sampling error estimated is plus or minus 2. 8%, expressed at the 95% confidence level. METHOD: Conducted by CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing). WEIGHTING: The data has been weighted to Department of Statistics Population Estimates to ensure it is representative of the population in terms of age, gender, and household size. REPORTED FIGURES: Reported bases are weighted. For Party Support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 3. 5% which are reported to 1 decimal place. For all other figures percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers except those less than 1% which are reported to 1 decimal place. METHODOLOGY The party vote question has been asked unprompted as at February 1997.

One News Colmar Brunton poll Party Support “Under MMP you get two votes. One One News Colmar Brunton poll Party Support “Under MMP you get two votes. One is for a political party and is called a party vote. The other is for your local M. P. and is called an electorate vote. ” Party Vote* “Firstly thinking about the Party Vote which is for a political party. Which political party would you vote for? ” IF DON’T KNOW – “Which one would you be most likely to vote for? ”

Segmenting your market Segmentation l l Identify segmentation bases and segment the market. Develop Segmenting your market Segmentation l l Identify segmentation bases and segment the market. Develop profiles of resulting segments. Targeting l l Evaluate attractiveness of each segment. Select target segments. Positioning l l Identify possible positioning concepts for each target segment. Select, develop, and communicate the chosen concept.

U. S. SME Lifestyle Segmentation Example Avg line of credit balance ($000) Projected avg U. S. SME Lifestyle Segmentation Example Avg line of credit balance ($000) Projected avg borrowings next 12 month ($000) Top Borrowing Needs Segment Definition Bolting start-ups Less than 3 years old; sales over $1 million 90 225 Young laggards 4 -10 years old; no or flat sales growth 125 50 Mature cash cows 10+ years old; moderate sales growth 175 140 Equipment financing Experienced expanders 10+ years old; high sales growth 675 200 Equipment financing; facility expansion Working capital management Facility expansion

Segmenting your market l Techniques used (of many) • Factor analysis to reduce dimensions Segmenting your market l Techniques used (of many) • Factor analysis to reduce dimensions • Cluster analyses to create ‘segments • Fastclus algorithm very popular • A difficult process • Needs much direction form experienced ‘segmentors’ • Discrimination techniques used to place future observations into segments

Customer Satisfaction Studies Thinking firstly about the service you received from (top secret). I Customer Satisfaction Studies Thinking firstly about the service you received from (top secret). I am going to read you some statements about this service and as I read you each statement, please give your opinion using a five-point scale where 1 is extremely dissatisfied and 5 extremely satisfied (read, rotate (start at x). write in (one digit) per statement) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with: . . everything being kept straightforward. . . being kept in touch while the claim was being processed. . . the general manner and attitude of the staff you dealt with. . . your claim being dealt with promptly. . . being treated fairly

Presentation of results Concern Secondary drivers Strengths Maintain or divert Presentation of results Concern Secondary drivers Strengths Maintain or divert

Satisfaction studies l l l How do you measure importance? ? Correlation fine but Satisfaction studies l l l How do you measure importance? ? Correlation fine but misses relationships between Xs MLR bad as assumes X’s uncorrelated PCR used – regression on principal components etc… Other solutions include CART

New product/pricing studies l l l What new features need to be included/added What New product/pricing studies l l l What new features need to be included/added What price are most customers prepared to pay? How do my competitors’ prices affect my share of the market

Please indicate which of the following you would buy if these were the prices Please indicate which of the following you would buy if these were the prices per dozen: Heineken Stella Artois Steinlager $22. 95 Export Gold $18. 95 Amstel $14. 95 Other premium beers 19. 95 $20. 95 $18. 95 Other mainstream beers $13. 95 SCENARIO 1

New product/pricing studies l Techniques used: Experiments designs l Choice modelling l • Main New product/pricing studies l Techniques used: Experiments designs l Choice modelling l • Main effects/interactions • Multinomial logistic regression • Survival analysis

New product/pricing studies New product/pricing studies

How advertising is modelled. . . New 5 -10% decay in recall/week How advertising is modelled. . . New 5 -10% decay in recall/week

How advertising is modelled. . . l Give TARPS a memory = Adstock l How advertising is modelled. . . l Give TARPS a memory = Adstock l Linear model on Adstock vs ECT intercept = long term memory slope = return /unit Adstock Once happy can use for scheduling… l l l • Via exponential smoothing

Major points l Constrained optimisation l The problems are both stimulating and demanding Interpretation Major points l Constrained optimisation l The problems are both stimulating and demanding Interpretation is everything l

Useful website l Check out our website to find out more about the Market Useful website l Check out our website to find out more about the Market Research Society of New Zealand www. mrsnz. org. nz