Urban Land Use Models An Overview E J

Urban Land Use Models: An Overview E. J. Miller Bahen-Tanenbaum Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering Director, Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre University of Toronto Land Use Model Workshop New York Metropolitan Transportation Council University Transportation Research Centre Region 2 New York, May 1, 2009 ILUTE

ILUTE Presentation Outline 1. 2. 3. 4. Urban Form – Transportation Interactions Need for Integrated Urban Models Key Design Elements & Issues Current State

ILUTE Transportation and urban form are fundamentally linked. How we build our city directly determines travel needs, viability of alternative travel modes, etc. Transportation, in turn, influences land development and location choices of people & firms.

ILUTE Factors Influencing Land Use Impact (Knight & Trygg, 1977)

ILUTE To understand these complex transportation – urban form interactions and to analyze the wide variety of policies (transportation, housing, etc. ) that affect the urban system requires integrated, comprehensive models of transportation and land use. INPUTS Demographics Regional Economics Government Policies URBAN ACTIVITY SYSTEM TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM Land Development Transportation Network Location Choice Automobile Ownership Activity Schedules Travel Demand Activity Patterns Network Flows

ILUTE Long- & Short-Run Interactions LONG-RUN ACCESSIBILITY INTERACTIONS Land Development Transportation Network Location Choice Automobile Ownership Activity Schedules Travel Demand Activity Patterns Network Flows SHORT-RUN ACTIVITY/TRAVEL INTERACTIONS

ILUTE Example Application: The Toronto Waterfront What would be the impact of tearing down the Gardiner Expressway? What if it wasn’t replaced? What transit options might exist? What would be the impact on population & employment distributions? … 2030_A 2005 Base Year Target Year (Policy Option A) evolve 2010 Event Year branch and evolve 2030_B Target Year (Policy Option B) 2030_C Target Year (Policy Option C)

ILUTE Example Application: Places to Grow What will be the impact of a greenbelt on: • housing density & prices? • employment concentration? • transit viability? • congestion? • emissions? • …

ILUTE Example Application What would be the impact of the proposed congestion pricing scheme on Manhattan’s economic activity system and travel patterns?

ILUTE Land Use Models Formal models which try to capture the transportation - land use interaction are usually referred to as land use models, integrated land use - transportation models, or integrated urban models. Such models have existed since the early 1960’s. Histrocially, they have had mixed success, with the result that, until recently few urban areas used formal models. Integrated urban models, however, are increasingly being developed and used in the U. S. and elsewhere.

ILUTE Integrated Models, Typical Sub-models

ILUTE Need for Land Use Models Without an integrated analysis of both land use and transportation, may well “miss” key system responses, and/or over/under-estimate the system responses which are being explicitly modelled. Many “transportation” issues (especially with respect to sustainability) have their origins (and perhaps their solutions as well) in land use design.

ILUTE Policy Options en t an pp ly M t en Su em ag an M ag e Us em nd La Community Goals Demand Management Policy Tools: • fiscal • regulatory • operational • infrastructure • marketing • education • information dissemination

ILUTE Need for Integrated Models A complete representation of short- & long-range system responses to policies is required if alternatives to “business as usual” are to be found. VKT Trend Projection Dynamic, path-dependent response to policy initiatives Historical Trend Base Year Forecast Horizon Time

ILUTE Policy Inputs into an Integrated Urban Model

ILUTE Non-Modelling Approaches In the absence of formal land use models (the usual case), scenario-based extrapolations of population and employment by zone are used to provide inputs to the travel demand modeling system.

ILUTE Non-Modelling Approaches, cont’d Problems include: • Scenarios are often unrealistic, and/or internally inconsistent • Scenarios are often inconsistent with the transportation system • Lack of “feedback”/interaction between land use and transportation sectors • Lack of detail in attributes of population & employment • Lack of policy sensitivity • Separation of land use planning from transportation planning

ILUTE Key Components of an Integrated Model Demographics Regional Economics Land Use Location Choice Auto Ownership Government Policies Activity/Travel & Goods Movement Transport System Road & Transit Assignment Models Flows, Times, etc. External Impacts

ILUTE Design Issues Physical System Active Agents Processes • Time • Space (land) • Building stock • Transportation networks • Persons • Households • Firms (Employment) • Land development • Location choices • Job market • Demographics • Regional economics • Automobile holdings • Activity / travel demand • Network performance

ILUTE Performance Issues Applicability • Theoretical soundness • Policy sensitivity • Precision (spatial, temporal) • Validation Feasibility • Computation requirements • Data requirements • Technical support requirements • Cost Usability • Ease of input preparation • Model run time • Output / presentation capabilities • Portability / transferability • Flexibility / adaptability

ILUTE Policy Capabilities Land Use Transportation Other • Pricing • Infrastructure and services • Regulatory • Education / marketing

Treatment of Time economic conditions economic changes; space changes; migration economic interactions household travel route choice year t economic conditions economic interactions goods & services movements transport conditions ILUTE household travel goods & services movements route choice changes in transport supply Source: Hunt & Donnelly (2002) transport conditions year t+1

ILUTE Modeling the Housing Market Policies Zoning … Interest Rates … Infrastructure Investment … Developers/Landlords Households Occupants’ decisions to move Vacancies Prices Active households search among selected vacancies Decision to buy/rent Developers’ decisions to build new housing • Type (structure/tenure) • Location • Number of units • Size/quality/price range Decision to sell/lease

ILUTE General Principles 1. Data first. 2. Develop/improve travel demand model. 3. A step-by-step approach is required. 4. An explicit plan is required.

ILUTE Requirements for Model Development/Improvement 1. Data. 2. Staff. 3. Commitment to model development, separate from daily operations. 4. Managerial/institutional commitment. 5. Include modelers in decision-making. 6. Understand the proper role of models. 7. Don’t underestimate or dismiss models. 8. Don’t settle for too little. 9. Don’t accept the status quo. 10. Move incrementally, but move towards the long run.

ILUTE Steps Towards the Ideal Model Land Use Model Travel Demand Model No Transit / mode split Logit / Transit / no logit (24 hr) peak-period assignment Activity-based None Activity + Judgement DRAM or equivalent Logit allocation w/ price signals Short-term goal Fully integrated market-based model Ideal Model Long-term goal First Path ‘Advanced’ Path

ILUTE Policy Capabilities of Current Integrated Models

ILUTE Current State • Land use models are in operational use in many U. S. cities, and under development in many others. Statewide models also exist. • 3 primary “current generation” models in use in the U. S. : – Metroscope – PECAS – Urban. Sim

ILUTE Current State, cont’d • Other GIS-based land use mapping/scenariobuilding systems exist (UPLAN, PLACE 3 S, etc. ), but these are not full-blown integrated model systems. • Commercial transportation modeling software vendors are reportedly developing land use modules, but these are not yet on the market.

ILUTE Current State, cont’d • Land use modeling has been shown to be practical and to make a difference in policy analysis. • In Oregon, for example, the statewide model has been used to assess freeway options and to design a statewide bridge rehabilitation program.

ILUTE Current State, cont’d • While U. S. legislation does not mandate use of land use models, it strongly encourages it. • Failure to consider land use options and effects can lead to law suits. • More important, failure to consider land use effects can lead to unexpected outcomes and poor investment & other policy decisions.

ILUTE A Final Word • Land use models do not make decisions and do not replace planning design. • They are another “voice at the table” that allows planners to explore the likely consequences of their policies (infrastructure investment, pricing, zoning, etc. ) by tracing the complex chain of spatial processes (travel, auto ownership, location choice, land development) that respond over time to these policies.

ILUTE Thank you for your attention. Demographics Regional Economics Land Use Location Choice Auto Ownership Government Policies Activity/Travel & Goods Movement Transport System Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model Any questions? Flows, Times, etc. External Impacts