Upstream Engineering Centre Ocean predictions and the oil

Upstream Engineering Centre Ocean predictions and the oil and gas industry - room for improvement? Colin Grant Metocean Technical Authority

Ocean predictions and the oil & gas industry • Ocean predictions have uses in 3 main areas in the industry − Forecasts – real time operations and short term planning (1 to 5 day) − Reanalysis products / hindcasts – operational planning − “weather windows” − Databases to establish design criteria such as 100 year and 10, 000 year values OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 2

How useful are present ocean predictions? • Waves − Generally acceptable quality for both short term forecasts and as hindcast databases. Suitable calibration with measured data permits use for design studies and operability analyses. • Currents − Lack of accuracy in temporal comparisons – frequently miss peak events when compared to measured data. Issues of sampling. Some skill in certain regions on a climatological basis. Used with care by the industry, for design studies, often after calibration & adjustment. • Water level − Useful products for design when combined with extreme wave predictions to establish total water levels. Setting of platform decks. • Temperatures & Salinity − Industry not a major user. Hindcast archives used for design (flow assurance issues – hydrate formation etc). Oil spill weathering issues • Sea ice conditions − Increasingly important with the move towards Arctic environments OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 3

Wave and current comparisons with data OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 4

Major challenges & requirements • Industry moving to deeper water and arctic areas. • Deep water operations require knowledge of currents through the water column, both as forecasts and as hindcast databases. − Riser and mooring design and control − Combinations of parameters for response-based analyses using joint probabilities of key parameters − Winds, waves & currents − Wave crests & water levels − Waves, currents and sea ice • Example − Gulf of Mexico OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 5

Gulf of Mexico - Loop & Eddy Forecasts OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 6

Macondo Oil Spill OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 7

Macondo oil spill modeling • Much modeling activity both by BP and the US Govt • BP’s in-house oil spill model is being standardised on SINTEF’s “Marine Environmental Modelling Workbench” − OSCAR – Oil Spill Contingency & Response − DREAM – Dose-related Risk & Effects Assessment Model − DEEPBLOW • Require initialisation and boundary conditions from atmospheric and ocean models in order to run effectively • Several other oil spill modelling providers e. g. ASA, BMT etc http: //www. sintef. no/static/ch/environment/numerical_modelling. htm OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 8

Scenario – West of Shetland spill • “My Ocean” Resource • Time res – Hourly (+ daily mean) • Spatial res - 0. 1 deg − (approx 6 km) • Depth − Numerous levels to 600 m • Variables − N & E Velocity − Salinity − Temperature − Sea surface height above geoid OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 9

West of Shetland complexity OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 10

Issues for oil spill modelling • Availability of input data varies regionally • Prediction of deep water oil spill trajectories is now a 3 D dispersion problem • Global models e. g. US Navy HYCOM – daily mean values − Nest finer models from global models • Use the ocean model that the regulator uses to enhance acceptability? − Australia - Blue Link CSIRO / Bo. M / RAN • BP long term collaboration with Imperial College, London − Re. EMS - Regional Environmental Monitoring System − Open source codes − WRF + ROMS (including sea ice) + SWAN + NOAH − Main focus is climate change but also being used to assist in oil spill modeling − Caspian used as a test bed (4 km resolution) − Work on Mediterranean, West Africa, Brazil etc OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 11

The future of ocean prediction? • Linking modelling with observations − In-situ, remotely sensed (satellite, aerial, HF radar etc) − Formatting and geo-referencing issues − Data assimilation • Product development and dissemination − Web / GIS based − User friendly – aimed at decision makers, not specialists • Integrated approaches to observation, forecasting and ultimately end user problem solving. OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 12

Questions OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 13