UPS Airlines Use of AMDAR Randy Baker 09

UPS Airlines Use of AMDAR Randy Baker 09 NOV 2011 UPS Airlines Senior Meteorologist

Why Did UPS get involved in AMDAR? • FOG: UPS operates into airports around the world within an hour or two of sunrise…the most likely time for operational impacts due to fog. • Boundary layer temperature/wind/moisture is critical. • http: //www. meted. ucar. edu/dlac/website/resources/upspaper. pdf 2

Fog Forecasting Example #1 -Moisture Increasing with Height -Inversion/Light Winds

Fog Forecasting Example #1 3 hours later… 0812 z RVR 1000 -2800 FT 1254 z RVR 600 -1000 FT

Example #2 Fog Forecasting – SDF 29 Mar 05 Moisture decreasing with height Favors shallow ground fog

Fog Forecasting – SDF 29 Mar 05 AC#362 TYS->SDF starting at 29 -Mar-2005 03: 47: 00 with 85 obs descent sounding ending at 29 -Mar-2005 04: 25: 00 S F HHMM lat/lon Alt wd/ws t / td ( RH ) 0 0 0421 38. 0370/-85. 7060 3300 338°/020 9. 0/-1. 10 (48. 9%) 2 0 0421 38. 0150/-85. 7030 3400 338°/020 8. 6 0 0 0422 38. 0600/-85. 7150 2840 340°/022 10. 3/-0. 20 (47. 9%) 0 0 0422 38. 0820/-85. 7220 2400 339°/022 11. 5/0. 000 (45. 0%) 2 0 0423 38. 1000/-85. 7270 2040 331°/022 12. 2/0. 200 (43. 5%) 0 0 0424 38. 1150/-85. 7340 1710 324°/020 13. 0/0. 700 (42. 8%) 0 0 0424 38. 1320/-85. 7370 1360 328°/018 13. 8/0. 800 (41. 1%) 2 0 0425 38. 1640/-85. 7490 700 279°/003 11. 5/4. 700 (62. 9%) 0 0 0425 38. 1720/-85. 7510 580 130°/002 11. 0/5. 500 (68. 9%) The First Descent report at 0425 z confirmed the model forecasts of a sharp decrease in moisture with height. Furthermore, there was a 3 C inversion with 18 knots of wind, indicating still mixy conditions, helping to mix the drier air down to the surface. code 3930 4130 4230 5430 5730

Fog Forecasting – SDF 29 Mar 05 • Earlier in the day rain had occurred (0. 34”), followed by clearing late in the day. • Using the UPS Fog Forecasting method, the Crossover temperature was 8. 3 C, and with expected clear skies, calm winds, and a forecast low temperature of 4 C, fog was of some concern. • Soil temperatures were on the warm side (9 C), and BUFKIT ETA output showed good dry advection just off the surface until about 04 z, followed by decoupling and possible fog conditions by around 07 z. • Based on the model forecast of moisture decreasing with height, UPS meteorologists forecast ground fog with no operational impact at SDF where, due to runway construction, visibility below 3 miles would have caused significant delays to our Next Day Air inbounds.

Fog Forecasting – SDF 29 Mar 05 LOU (Louisville Bowman Field) did report 1/4 SM mile in ground fog, which was patchy across the city, especially in low-lying locations. SDF never dropped below a sector visibility of 2 1/2 SM. SDF 0356 00000 KT 7 SM MIFG CLR 08/07 A 2978 REMRK A 02 VIS W 2 1/2 SLP 084 T 00780072 SDF 0456 00000 KT 6 SM MIFG CLR 07/07 A 2979 REMRK AO 2 SLP 087 T 00720067 401170067 SDF 0556 10003 KT 4 SM BR CLR 05/04 A 2979 REMRK AO 2 SLP 090 T 00500044 10106 20050 51012 SDF 0656 00000 KT 5 SM BR CLR 06/06 A 2981 REMRK AO 2 SLP 096 T 0056 SDF 0756 00000 KT 6 SM BR CLR 05/04 A 2982 REMRK AO 2 SLP 100 T 00500044

UPS Domestic Air Hub Operations

International Air Hub Operations

UPS AMDAR History • UPS joined MDCRS program in early 1990 s (automated reports every 510 seconds) • UPS deployed high rate Ascent/Descent report and added time-based option to ARINC 620 Specifications in Summer 1994. • UPS deployed first water vapor sensor 1996 (thinned film capacitor – measured RH) • UPS deployed laser diode water vapor sensors in 2004 – measured water vapor mixing ratio 11

UPS AMDAR History (cont’d) • Most recent water vapor sensor installed in 2009 with excellent results. Added Petersen encoding scheme. • UPS currently has 25 water vapor sensors installed on 757 aircraft. • UPS Fleets with routine AMDAR data: 757, 767, 747, MD-11 (167 total) • Automatically thin out KSDF hub Ascent/Descent reports and most International reports. Water Vapor data is not thinned at all.

UPS AMDAR History (cont’d) • Current Default Specifications – Ascent 1 every 6 seconds for 90 seconds – Ascent 2 every 20 seconds until 590 seconds have elapsed – Profile available on GSD website within 5 -10 minutes – Enroute every 3 minutes; 5 reports transmitted in one report (every 15 minutes) – Descent Report every 30 seconds. 13

UPS AMDAR Lessons Learned • Programmable DFDAU (Digital Flight Data Acquisition Unit) allows UPS to make changes without significant additional cost. (Teledyne) • Pressure Altitude can be negative for stations near sea level with high surface pressures. • Wind information can be tricky…easy to reverse the sign of the N-S or E-W wind components, computing wind directions up to 180 degrees off. • Data bus 429 has a lot of similar information (such as position data), make sure you are getting the best possible information. 14

UPS Central America WVSS-II Data past 7 days 15

Recent GDL AMDAR Soundings RAOB GDL airport 16

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UPS Use of AMDAR Data • Data used in operational forecasts – Fog forecasting (boundary layer moisture profile) – Thunderstorm forecasting – Southern California marine layer (low stratus/fog) – Winter storm precipitation type and timing. • Case study reviews of major weather events – Santa Ana Winds at KONT – Tropical Depression Ike at KSDF

Southern California Marine Layer 21

Winter Precipitation Types SDF 15 -16 Feb 2003

RAIN

KSDF 151843 Z 06015 KT 2 1/2 SM RA BR OVC 013 01/M 01 A 3001 RMK AO 2 RAB 30 RAIN

METAR KSDF 160156 Z 05009 G 17 KT 5 SM -PL BR OVC 020 M 01/M 04 A 3009 RMK AO 2 FZDZE 55 PLB 55 SLP 192 P 0001 T 10111039 = FZRA, FZDZ, PL

KSDF 160556 Z 04009 KT 4 SM -PL BR OVC 018 M 03/M 04 A 3006= KSDF 160456 Z 04010 KT 6 SM -PL BR OVC 020 M 02/M 04 A 3007= ICE PELLETS

Santa Ana Winds • Causes Severe Cross-winds • Can prevent opening/closing cargo door • Wind events of 4 -12 hours 30 gusting 60 knots • Strongest events are mountain waves

Mountain Wave Strongest Wind in and near Stable Layer

Jet Core West of ONT, Weak or no Santa Ana event

Jet Core East of ONT, Moderate to Strong Santa Ana event Mountain Wave

Tropopause m t Je a re St BUR ONT t on Jet Fr Tropopause Mountain Level – 10, 000 Ft Ground Level PHX

Santa Ana Winds G 78 KT ONT

IKE 33

Hurricane Ike Remnants • Previous Large Hurricane hit Texas coast near Galveston as a Category 2 storm 13 SEP 2008 • Downgraded to Tropical Depression in Arkansas 06 z 14 SEP 2008 • Later that day, SDF was expecting Rain with winds 20 -30 Knots. • Instead, SDF got 3 hours of winds 30 gusting 65 knots (tower 85 knots at 220 feet AGL). 70% of city without power. • SDF airport closed for several hours. • Region experienced $1 Billion damage, 12 fatalities. 34

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Data Quality Control Issues Temperature Errors • 10% of our fleet have at least a +1 C warm bias at all levels • 5% of our fleet have at least a +2 C warm bias at all levels • At +3 to +4 C Engine Condition Monitoring program detects possible TAT (total air temperature) errors. • Cause of errors: foreign objects (insect parts), lightning damage.

Data Quality Control Issues Position Errors • Some fleets used single inertial position information instead of combined position information (3 inertial systems plus any GPS/VOR updates). • As a result, some aircraft positions were in error, drifting at a rate of 1 -5 nm per hour of flight time. • In process of changing data source to use FMC (flight management computer) best position information. Early 757 s cannot be corrected at this time.

Data Quality Control Issues Wind Errors • Data bus provided instantaneous (4 Hz? ) wind information. • Turbulence can cause instantaneous changes in wind direction +/20 degrees and speed +/- 20 knots (continuous moderate chop). • Enroute reports going to 10 second averaging, Ascent/Descent reports going to 2 second averaging to minimize these wind errors.

Data Quality Control Issues Moisture Errors • Early mixing ratio reports were coded with two significant digits. This resulted in loss of resolution going from 9. 9 g/kg to 10, 11, 12, etc. Solution: Employed Petersen encoding scheme. • Air Sampler design can allow water from heavy rain (in flight) to flow into the unit, creating a moist bias until all moisture is flushed out. This can take several flight segments. • Air Sampler hoses can become blocked with foreign material, causing moisture readings to be nearly constant during all phases of flight.

Aircraft N 411 UP WVSS-II installation pictures at Goodrich during “C” check in May 2004. • Air Sampler (View looking inboard) • System Electronics Box (SEB) (View • looking outboard) • Air Sampler (View looking outboard)

RFD WVSS-2 vs RAOB Comparison 45

Questions?