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United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Statistical Division Measuring Hard-to-Count Migration Populations: Importance, Definitions, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Statistical Division Measuring Hard-to-Count Migration Populations: Importance, Definitions, and Categories Jason Schachter United Nations Economic Commission for Europe UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics Geneva, Switzerland, October 17 -19

Goals of Project v Suitland Working Group Task Force Relevance of hard-to-count migrants in Goals of Project v Suitland Working Group Task Force Relevance of hard-to-count migrants in different countries • Compare definitions of hard-to-count migrants at the national and international level • Factors that influence the data collection of hard-to-count migrant populations • 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 2

In Relation to Household Surveys v v To what extent do countries use surveys In Relation to Household Surveys v v To what extent do countries use surveys to measure hard-to-count migrants. How can household surveys be used to measure these populations • v Sampling rare and elusive populations What survey questions are needed to identify hard-to-count migrants 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 3

Who are Hard-to-Count Migrants? v v v v Short-term migrants Circular migrants Irregular migrants Who are Hard-to-Count Migrants? v v v v Short-term migrants Circular migrants Irregular migrants Transit migrants Trafficked person Refugees Asylum seekers 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 4

UNECE Questionnaire on International Migration Statistics v Questions from Section 2: “Practices/Methodologies used to UNECE Questionnaire on International Migration Statistics v Questions from Section 2: “Practices/Methodologies used to estimate “difficult to measure”international migrant groups” • Conducted in 2008 w 16 March 2018 UNECE and other countries – 49 responses Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 5

Questions on… v v v Relevance attributed to each group If measurement is an Questions on… v v v Relevance attributed to each group If measurement is an issue (i. e. data are not available or are not sufficiently accurate) If NSO is responsible for producing counts/estimates on these populations and methodology used Data source and definition used to identify group Information on if other government agency/ institutions provide estimates 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 6

Short-Term Migrants v “A person who moves to a country other than that of Short-Term Migrants v “A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least 3 months but less than a year (12 months), except in cases where the movement to that country is for purpose of recreation, holiday, visits to friends or relatives, business, medical treatment or religious pilgrimage. For purposes of international migration statistics, the country of usual residence of short-term migrants is considered to be the country of destination during the period they spend in it. ” (UN 1998) 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 7

Questionnaire Results v v v Most frequently collected Fair amount of deviation from the Questionnaire Results v v v Most frequently collected Fair amount of deviation from the international definition In the few cases minimum length of stay (in and/or out of the country) was mentioned, large amount of variation (e. g. two weeks to six months). Better adherence to maximum duration of stay (12 months) Some consider intended residence while others use actual residence Purpose of movement rarely included 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 8

Circular Migrants v “Circular Migration is the fluid movement of people between countries, including Circular Migrants v “Circular Migration is the fluid movement of people between countries, including temporary or more permanent movement which, when it occurs voluntarily and is linked to the labour needs of countries of origin and destination, can be beneficial to all involved. ” (GFMD 2007) 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 9

Questionnaire Results v v v No NSO measured or provided a definition used to Questionnaire Results v v v No NSO measured or provided a definition used to identify circular migrants (circa 2008) By its nature, circular migration is difficult to measure as short-term residence may be subject to little or no administrative recording, particularly if permission to reside has already been granted in the context of a previous stay. Operationalization: • Duration of stay in destination country • Frequency of repeated movements • Purpose of migration 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 10

Irregular/Undocumented Migrants v “Persons in a state other than their own who have not Irregular/Undocumented Migrants v “Persons in a state other than their own who have not fully satisfied the conditions and requirements set forth by that State to enter, stay, or work in that State's territory. ” (ILO 1997) 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 11

Questionnaire Results v v v Only four countries provided an operational definition Romania EC Questionnaire Results v v v Only four countries provided an operational definition Romania EC Regulation no. 862/2007, “third-country nationals refused entry to the Member State’s territory at the external border” and “third-country nationals found to be illegally present in the Member State’s territory under national laws relating to immigration. ” Other definitions similar to the international standards • Israel: employment a necessary condition for irregular status. 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 12

Transit Migrants v “A person who migrates in one country with the intention of Transit Migrants v “A person who migrates in one country with the intention of seeking the possibility there to emigrate to another country as the country of final destination. ” (UNECE 1993) 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 13

Questionnaire Results v v No countries provided a definition or attempt to measure Operationalization: Questionnaire Results v v No countries provided a definition or attempt to measure Operationalization: repetition of international migration • intention to move onwards • w 16 March 2018 does not necessarily correspond to an actual move Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 14

Trafficked persons v “The recruitment, transportation, transfer, harbouring or receipt of persons, by the Trafficked persons v “The recruitment, transportation, transfer, harbouring or receipt of persons, by the means of threat or use of force or other forms of coercion, of abduction, of fraud, of deception, of the abuse of power or of a position of vulnerability or of the giving or receiving of payments or benefits to achieve the consent of a person having control over another person, for the purpose of exploitation. ” (UN 2000) 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 15

Smuggling v “The procurement, in order to obtain, directly or indirectly, a financial or Smuggling v “The procurement, in order to obtain, directly or indirectly, a financial or other material benefit, of the illegal entry of a person into a state of which he/she is not a national or a permanent resident. Illegal entry means the crossing of borders without complying with the necessary requirements for legal entry into the receiving State. ” (UN 2000) 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 16

Questionnaire Results v v v Trafficking is restricted to situations in which people are Questionnaire Results v v v Trafficking is restricted to situations in which people are deceived, threatened, or coerced in situations of exploitation Smuggling implies a migrant voluntarily uses services to circumvent immigration restrictions (not necessarily a victim of deception or exploitation) Three countries indicated a definition for trafficked migrants Romania refers to EC Regulation No. 862/2007 • Kyrgyzstan reported a definition close to the international standards • Slovakia counts both foreigners and nationals who declare themselves victims of trafficking, either inside the country or abroad (for nationals) • 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 17

Asylum seekers v “Persons who file an application for asylum in a country other Asylum seekers v “Persons who file an application for asylum in a country other than their own. They remain in the status of asylumseeker until their application is considered and adjudicated. ” (UN 1998) 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 18

Questionnaire Results v v v Eleven countries provided definitions In most cases, as per Questionnaire Results v v v Eleven countries provided definitions In most cases, as per the international definition, asylum seekers are foreigners who have applied for refugee status and are awaiting a response Four countries (Canada, Russia, Slovenia, and the United Kingdom) include persons who do not fulfil the requirements of the Geneva Convention, but for whom an expulsion would constitute a serious threat to life or personal safety and/or freedom 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 19

Refugees v “A person who owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for Refugees v “A person who owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it” (UNHCR, 1967). 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 20

Questionnaire Results v v v Almost all countries reported a definition in-line with UNHCR, Questionnaire Results v v v Almost all countries reported a definition in-line with UNHCR, though some utilize the broader interpretation to include asylum applicants under international protection. Croatia counts refugees as part of its usual resident population Palestinian Authority focuses on national refugees living abroad 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 21

Data Sources v v v Censuses and population registers, visa and border control data, Data Sources v v v Censuses and population registers, visa and border control data, as well as some household and passenger surveys Short-term migrants & refugees most frequent Circular and transit migrants least frequent (almost no cases of either) Short-term migrants: largest proportion (40%) came from population or administrative registers, while other sources included censuses, border data, visa information, and surveys Irregular migrants and/or trafficked persons: border control information, police reports, and NGOs 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 22

Table 1: Number of countries and sources used to provide counts or estimates of Table 1: Number of countries and sources used to provide counts or estimates of hard-to-count migrant groups Note: Countries could provide more than one source per migrant group Administrative Asylum department Asylum register Border card Border police Census Emigration survey Federal report Foreigners’ register Home office Immigration service International passenger survey Labour force survey Migrants’ Register Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ministry of Interior Source Non-governmental agencies Police headquarters Population register Refugee office Register Statistical service Total 16 March 2018 Migrant Category Shortterm 2 2 1 3 1 3 Refugees 1 1 4 1 3 1 Asylum 2 1 3 1 1 1 Irregular 1 Trafficked Circular 1 Transit 1 1 3 1 4 3 1 3 4 1 1 23 2 3 1 22 3 1 19 1 6 1 1 6 1 0 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 23

Relevance of Group and Difficulty of Estimation, All Countries 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- Relevance of Group and Difficulty of Estimation, All Countries 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 24

Country-Specific Relevance and Difficulties in Estimation of Irregular Migration 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- Country-Specific Relevance and Difficulties in Estimation of Irregular Migration 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 25

Factors that Influence the Difficulty of Measuring Hard-to-Count Migrants v Data issues • Lack Factors that Influence the Difficulty of Measuring Hard-to-Count Migrants v Data issues • Lack of data due to nature of their migration (fewer formalized administrative records; illegal residence) • Data sources lack specific information needed to measure (migration history information; duration of stay ) • Lack of coverage/response for populations of interest (limited population register coverage; higher survey non-response rates) 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 26

Factors, cont. v v v Statistical Office might have difficulty accessing administrative data from Factors, cont. v v v Statistical Office might have difficulty accessing administrative data from other national organizations Data already produced by another organization Lack of relevance for a country (in terms of size and/or policy) 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 27

Use of Sample Surveys to Measure Hard-to-Count Migrants v v Few countries use sample Use of Sample Surveys to Measure Hard-to-Count Migrants v v Few countries use sample surveys to derive estimates of hard-to-count migrant populations. Short-term migrants Moldova’s labor force survey • Portugal’s emigration survey • United Kingdom’s International Passenger Survey (not a household survey) • 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 28

Sampling Rare and Elusive Populations v v Sophisticated sampling techniques can be used to Sampling Rare and Elusive Populations v v Sophisticated sampling techniques can be used to capture rare populations Probability methods: each sampling unit has an equal chance of being selected • v Non-probability methods • v Dual-sampling (disproportionate): locate sampling units with a high proportion of migrants (either using pre-existing data, like a census, or sampling areas to discover them), then oversample in these units Adaptative or snowball techniques w Can suffer from lack of generalizability due to their non-random nature. Can combine probability and non-probability methods (e. g. initial sample is selected randomly, and then ask for references) to obtain estimates of rare populations. 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 29

Even if Sampled, Data Quality Concerns Remain! v Lower response rates • Higher levels Even if Sampled, Data Quality Concerns Remain! v Lower response rates • Higher levels of item non-response (particularly to more sensitive question like legal status or income) • Potentially differing response rates by mode of survey (e. g. lower response of hard-to-count migrant groups to internet-based surveys) • Impact of language ability on response rates and answers given • Survey attrition (longitudinal) • Imputation rates 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 30

Examples of Survey Questions to Identify Hard-to-Count Migrant Populations v v Even if surveys Examples of Survey Questions to Identify Hard-to-Count Migrant Populations v v Even if surveys are not used for estimation, they can be used to identify migrant groups Based on international defintions, what pieces of information are needed? 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 31

Short-Term Migrants v v Exact duration of stay (in country of residence) or date Short-Term Migrants v v Exact duration of stay (in country of residence) or date of entry For greater clarification: Purpose of movement • Intent of duration of stay • 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 32

Duration of Stay: Italy LFS (2011) v v v In what year did you Duration of Stay: Italy LFS (2011) v v v In what year did you come to live in Italy the first time? Do you remember the month? Since that time, have you always been living in Italy? Please exclude travels or holidays away from Italy of a period of time shorter than one year Since when have you been living in Italy without leaving the Country for one year or more? Do you remember the month? 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 33

Intended Duration of Stay: UK International Passenger Survey (2012) How long do you intend Intended Duration of Stay: UK International Passenger Survey (2012) How long do you intend to stay in the UK? Under 12 months. . . . 1 Up to 2 years. . . 2 Up to 4 years. . . 3 Permanently > 4 years. . 4 Not sure how many years. . . 6 DK, possibly 12 months. . . . Purpose of Move: Russian Federation 2010 Census What is the purpose of your arrival to Russia? работа (work) учеба (study) служебная или деловая поездка (official or business trip) лечение (medical treatment) туризм, отдых (tourism, recreation) транзитная миграция (transit migration) другая цель → (other purpose) Запишите какая Specify 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 34

Circular migration v v v Migration history (for at least two most recent international Circular migration v v v Migration history (for at least two most recent international moves) Duration of stay Purpose of movement 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 35

Migration History: Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (2008) v v v v SECTION 1 Migration History: Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (2008) v v v v SECTION 1 B. MIGRATION HISTORY After you have completed age 12, have you ever changed your place of residence at least for 6 months? (Yes, No) Now I wish to talk about all the different places of residences you have lived in for at least 6 months after you have completed age 12. Can you tell me the places you have lived in since then, starting from the one you were living at the age of 12? In which province were you living? When you were living there was this place a province centre, a district centre, a sub-district or village? Or was it abroad? For how long did you live in. . . ? (RECORD IN MONTHS IF LESS THAN 2 YEARS) At which month and year did you migrate from. . . . to. . . . ? What was the main reason of migration from. . . ? 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 36

Trafficked Migrants v v Highly sensitive survey topic (irregular) ILO pilot tested surveys to Trafficked Migrants v v Highly sensitive survey topic (irregular) ILO pilot tested surveys to measure forced labour (including trafficking) • Armenia (2009), Georgia (2008), Moldova LFS (2008) w 16 March 2018 Targeted working age populations who had recently returned from working abroad Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 37

Trafficking: Moldova LFS Migration Module (2008) v v v v v Have you ever Trafficking: Moldova LFS Migration Module (2008) v v v v v Have you ever been exploited in any of the following ways while working for someone else abroad? Did this situation happen at the last job? What was the sector in which you had to work under exploitation conditions? When were you exploited? In what country did this happened For how long were you in this situation? What was different at the working place as compared to what was previously promised to you? Have you ever had to work against your own will under one of the following conditions? By what means did the owner force you to work? 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 38

Summary v Some hard-to-count migrant groups were much more relevant to countries than others Summary v Some hard-to-count migrant groups were much more relevant to countries than others Most relevant: irregular, short-term, refugees, and asylum seekers • Less relevant: transit and circular migrants • v v Overall, a paucity of data on these topics, and when data collected, often use a wide array of definitions (e. g. short-term migration) The use of household surveys to estimate these populations is extremely rare 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 39

Summary, cont. v Household surveys can be used to identify hard-tocount migrants • v Summary, cont. v Household surveys can be used to identify hard-tocount migrants • v v Analysis of outcomes and characteristics in comparison to other migrant and non-migrant groups. Specialized sampling techniques (and surveys) still necessary, given scarce presence in general population Data quality concerns are still an issue 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 40

Future Work v v v Investigation of data quality issues Sampling methodology needed to Future Work v v v Investigation of data quality issues Sampling methodology needed to capture hard-to-count groups More comprehensive examination of questions asked to identify these groups and recommend best practices 16 March 2018 Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 41