UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMICS OF THE 2014 GAZA CONFLICT

UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMICS OF THE 2014 GAZA CONFLICT JULY 30, 2014

Current Situation Ground operations Air Operations Negotiations

Israeli Objectives Political Demonstrate Israel will Military • Reduce Hamas miliary capabilities: esp. Rockets, tunnels Restore quiet Demilitarize Gaza Minimize civilian casualities • Limit casualities/damage inside Israel

Hamas Objectives Political Military • Break Isolation/siege Inflict damage on Israel • Free prisoners Miantain rocket firing • Demonstrate strength/resolve Present robust defense agaisnt Israel ground incursion v Preserve forces • Re-establish resistence credentials

Strategy: Israel Ø Use air and ground power to compel Hamas to accept quiet Ø Damage Palestinian military forces and infrastructure with intense air and limites ground operations Ø Conduct casualty sensitive operations Ø Conduct media campaign to justify opeartions and limit damge from civilian casualities.

Strategy: Hamas Ø Conduct sustained rocket firing into the depth of Israel Ø Disrupt Israel civilian life/economy, inflict damage Ø Achieve « image of victory » : attack on Israel twon, kill large number of soldiers, hostage taking Ø Prevent any deep Israeli penetration of Gaza on the ground Ø Attrite Israeli ground forces Ø Conduct media campaign to paint Israel as agressor, limit Israeli military activity, end war with favorable terms.

The Rocket/Air War (1) Rocket forces and operations Forces Qassam Brigades Launch Operations Sustained fire: 1500 plus rkts, avg about 120 rockets per day PIJ Population center PRC Deep target Joint operations(Qassam/PIJ) Some military targets, esp close to Gaza border

The Rocket/Air War (2) Rockets vs Iron Dome capabilities: engage threat rockets only Iron Dome batteries: 10 deployes(3 during conflict) Intercepts: 300(in first ten days Accuracy/eefectiveness: claimed 86% of threat rockets

The Rocket/Air War (3) Israeli air Campaign Air vs the rocket system: production, movement, storage, launchers, launch units. Air vs the Hamas infrastructure: leadership, C 2, weapons storage, combat forces, tunnels Itotal strikes: 2037 (first 10 days) Avg per day: 200 plus

The Ground War q Engineering warfare Ø Tunnels: 60 plus, infiltration, storage, smuggling, communications Ø IEDs: one of Hamas most important defensive measures q Tank vs anti-tank q Close combat: direct fire engagements between troop q Infiltration: into Israel(5 attemps(), inside Gaza, sig Israeli KI q Fire Support: used by both side q Suicide actions: a few

The Media War(1): Israel Themes It’s a « terrorist » attack on Israeli civilians Criticism of operations not justifie Israel military operations are effective Israel has many supporters Operations Info on Hamas attacks on Israeli civilians: rockets, infiltration Info on « precision » ops, media on Hamas use of civilians as human shields Release of info on Isreali Strike results: targets hit, damage, casualities Media releases on demonstrations, statements of support for Israel

The Media War(2): Hamas Themes Israel aggression against civilians Hamas military operations are succeeding Israeli military operations are failing The whole world support Hams Operations Use of Hamas and other media to show civilian casualties/manipulation of social media Claims of successful opeartions on Hamas and other Palestinian media Media coverage of CONTINUING Hams military ops, attention to Israeli military casualties Media coverage of anti-Israeli/pro. Hamas demonstrations

Lessons Learned: Israel Ø Air power not enough against hardened enemy: Physical and mental Ø Iron Dome does not completly solve the rocket problem Ø Significant civilian casualities will occur regardless of the measures taken Ø Incrementalism in ground ops gives the enemy an advantage Ø Continuing challenge of urban combat Ø Tunnels wil be a venue of combat Ø Don’t neglect the ground forces

Lessons Learned: Hamas Ø In a crisis, initiate the fighting Ø Israel is heavily constrained by the civilian population in Gaza Ø Srocket firing/mil ops can continue even under intense air attack Ø Media war is crucial Ø Validation of Hamas theory of combat

Game Changers Ø Iron Dome: Negating hamas capabilities to cause casualities/damage inside Israel Ø Hamas close combat capabilities: a significant shock with effects Ø Tunnels System: creating strategic effects ü Protection of military infrastructure/forces against IDF ü Cross border penetration for strategic purposes

Ø ü ü ü Near Term Developments Continued negotiations: Humanitarian ceasefire Ceasefire to negotiate arrangement Comprehensive arrangement Ø Continued military operations. Israel and Hamas Ø Expanded military operations: Israel?