Скачать презентацию Understanding Data and Media Communication Lawrence Yun Ph Скачать презентацию Understanding Data and Media Communication Lawrence Yun Ph

643d7501351d65f48338e12d54c83cc9.ppt

  • Количество слайдов: 38

Understanding Data and Media Communication Lawrence Yun, Ph. D. Senior Economist, Managing Director of Understanding Data and Media Communication Lawrence Yun, Ph. D. Senior Economist, Managing Director of Research National Association of REALTORS® Presentation at NAR Midyear Meetings in Washington, DC May 17, 2007

Media Scare • NAR was the lead story for CBS, NBC, ABC evening news Media Scare • NAR was the lead story for CBS, NBC, ABC evening news in Fall 2006 • AP: Largest Home Sales Decline in 17 years • Prices are already crashing … (2002) • Economy. com … expect worst housing year since early 1990 s (2001)

Cooling National Sales: Existing Homes Sales change in % Source: NAR Cooling National Sales: Existing Homes Sales change in % Source: NAR

Housing Inventory – Raw Count All-time High Source: NAR Housing Inventory – Raw Count All-time High Source: NAR

Housing Inventory – Months Supply Source: NAR Housing Inventory – Months Supply Source: NAR

Days on Market – Fuzzy? Source: NAR Days on Market – Fuzzy? Source: NAR

Days on Market – OK? Source: NAR Days on Market – OK? Source: NAR

Home Price – Seasonal Fluctuations Source: NAR Home Price – Seasonal Fluctuations Source: NAR

Jobs in Myrtle Beach In thousands Source: NAR Jobs in Myrtle Beach In thousands Source: NAR

Price Growth (month-to-month) Source: NAR Price Growth (month-to-month) Source: NAR

Price Growth (year-over-year) Source: NAR Price Growth (year-over-year) Source: NAR

Income Not Keeping Pace With Home Prices Income and Price set to Index of Income Not Keeping Pace With Home Prices Income and Price set to Index of 100 in 1990 Source: NAR

Metro Home Prices: Moderate to Unsustainable Widened Gap Bunched Together Source: NAR Metro Home Prices: Moderate to Unsustainable Widened Gap Bunched Together Source: NAR

Mortgage Obligation to Income – Worrisome in the West % Source: NAR Mortgage Obligation to Income – Worrisome in the West % Source: NAR

Mortgage Obligation to Income Very High in Some Markets debt service to buy a Mortgage Obligation to Income Very High in Some Markets debt service to buy a median priced home by a middle income family 50% 45% !!! San Diego 40% 30% 20% 1990 Source: NAR 1995 2000 2005

Mortgage Obligation to Income Historical High in Some Markets debt service to buy a Mortgage Obligation to Income Historical High in Some Markets debt service to buy a median priced home by a middle income family 30% Way Above Historical Local Norm Miami 20% 1990 Source: NAR 1995 2000 2005

Lexington Mortgage Obligation to Income Source: NAR Lexington Mortgage Obligation to Income Source: NAR

Past Notable Price Declines … All had Job Losses (mostly in the late 80 Past Notable Price Declines … All had Job Losses (mostly in the late 80 s or early 90 s) Peak to Trough Duration Decline Time required to climb back to original peak Boston 25% 5 years 9 years NY-NJ MSA 10. 0% 7 years 11 years Los Angeles 21. 4% 7 years 9 years San Francisco 3. 8% 4 years 7 years Houston 23. 1% 5 years 9 years Honolulu 24% 9 years 13 years

Emphasize Job Gains: Top Job Creators in 12 months In thousands Source: BLS Emphasize Job Gains: Top Job Creators in 12 months In thousands Source: BLS

New Jobs to Housing Construction • 1 -year, 2 -year, 5 -year • Retirees New Jobs to Housing Construction • 1 -year, 2 -year, 5 -year • Retirees do not have jobs – but need housing – FL, AZ, NV • Where to get the Data? – Jobs from U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Permits from HUD – All from NAR website (under construction)

Net New Jobs in D. C. Region In thousands Source: BLS Net New Jobs in D. C. Region In thousands Source: BLS

New Housing Permits in D. C. Region In thousands Source: HUD New Housing Permits in D. C. Region In thousands Source: HUD

Jobs and Permits In thousands Jobs and Permits In thousands

Ratio: Jobs to Permits Ratio: Jobs to Permits

Record High Debt • Yes, Record High Debt • But also, Record High Equity Record High Debt • Yes, Record High Debt • But also, Record High Equity • Record High Net Housing Equity

Housing Valuation and All Debt $ trillion Source: Federal Reserve Housing Valuation and All Debt $ trillion Source: Federal Reserve

Net Equity (Housing Valuation minus All Debt) $ trillion Source: Federal Reserve Net Equity (Housing Valuation minus All Debt) $ trillion Source: Federal Reserve

Net Migration (2000 to 2006) Market Net Domestic Migration Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 474, 621 Net Migration (2000 to 2006) Market Net Domestic Migration Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 474, 621 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 398, 198 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 276, 915 Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 259, 537 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 242, 033 Orlando-Kissimmee, FL 206, 374 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 168, 481 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 146, 090 Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC 139, 418 Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA 127, 808

Total Population Increase (2000 to 2006) Market Natural + International + Domestic Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Total Population Increase (2000 to 2006) Market Natural + International + Domestic Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 890, 211 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 842, 449 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 824, 547 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 787, 306 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 771, 314 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 584, 510 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island 495, 154 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 494, 220 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL 455, 869 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI 407, 133

International Home Price Growth (1997 to 2005) • U. S. price growth 74% ---------------- International Home Price Growth (1997 to 2005) • U. S. price growth 74% ---------------- • Spain 140% • U. K. 150% • Ireland 180% RISKIER MORTGAGE PRODUCTS

International Buyer Trend in the U. S. … vs. 5 years ago International Buyer Trend in the U. S. … vs. 5 years ago

Sub-prime Implosion • 100 homes in the neighborhood • 33 homes are owned free Sub-prime Implosion • 100 homes in the neighborhood • 33 homes are owned free and clear • 77 homes have mortgages • 67 homes have prime or gov’t loans • 10 homes have subprime loans • 8 are current on payment • 2 are delinquent • 1 of the 2 delinquent at most would go into foreclosure

We need Your Help! • Feedback on market conditions – Buyer prospects – Open We need Your Help! • Feedback on market conditions – Buyer prospects – Open house foot traffic – Listings on the horizon • Customer tracking survey • Leave your business card

What is the NAR Customer Tracking Survey? • Web-based questionnaire sent to clients after What is the NAR Customer Tracking Survey? • Web-based questionnaire sent to clients after final settlement • The 20 questions (mostly yes or no answers) • The timely survey shows you what customers are thinking now and measures changes in customer satisfaction over time. • Identify strengths and weaknesses in attaining full client satisfaction

The Goal of the Questions • Identify attributes most strongly associated with customer satisfaction The Goal of the Questions • Identify attributes most strongly associated with customer satisfaction • Several questions to “remind” clients the value of REALTOR service • Helps firm’s training program • Compare aggregate firm performance vs peers