UK and European Renewable Energy trends and implications for energy markets Philip Wolfe Renewable Energy Association www. r-e-a. net Apex Paris - October 2007 1
Renewable Energy Association More than 500 members > multinationals to ‘one-man bands’ Renewable heat, power, fuel & CHP All technologies: > Biomass > Bioenergy > Solar > Wind > Marine > Hydro > Heat pumps Apex Paris - October 2007 2
This presentation EU energy targets Possible scenarios for 2020 Policy implications Trading and market implications Apex Paris - October 2007 3
The EU commitments for 2020 Emissions reductions Binding > 20% unilateral, or > 30% if multilateral Energy conservation ’Non-binding %s 0 > of 2 projections 20% below current A lot Renewables Binding > 20% of total energy > 10% of transport fuels Apex Paris - October 2007 4
Renewable trends in Europe Apex Paris - October 2007 5
UK Energy White Paper “The 20% renewables target is an ambitious goal … by 2020, on the basis of existing policies, renewables would contribute around 5% of the UK’s consumption … we will bring forward the appropriate measures, beyond those set out in this White Paper, to make our contribution to meeting these targets. ” Apex Paris - October 2007 6
20% Renewables – EU vision Apex Paris - October 2007 7
First: Cut energy consumption Energy conservation measures More efficient energy usage > Regulate against inefficient products > Regulate against parasitic loads More efficient energy generation > Limit generating stations’ waste energy UK consumption in 2020 same as now as a rough working assumption Apex Paris - October 2007 8
Routemap to 2020 New measures needed Apex Paris - October 2007 9
Enhanced policy proposals Merchant power Increased RO 1 objective ~22% in 2020 > > > Set 25% quota and increase headroom Retain buyout link to retail price index Offshore super-grid? Tidal lagoons, barrages and new large hydro? Incentives for large scale CHP 2 > > Large thermal generators must use heat Renewable Heat (or Gas? ) Obligation Measures to deliver biomass strategy 3 1. 3 Renewable (electricity) Obligation 2 Combined heat and power Published by UK Government in May Apex Paris - October 2007 10
Enhanced policy proposals Other energy sectors Renewable transport fuels > Higher RTFO 4 quotas – 10% in 2020 > High blend & second generation bio-fuels Domestic buildings > Building regulations for new homes > Smart metering roll-out programme > Retrofit programme for existing houses Non-residential buildings > A new Code for Sustainable Buildings > Heat networks in new developments > Renewables in agriculture 4 Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation Apex Paris - October 2007 11
Routemap to 2020 Enhanced energy policy Apex Paris - October 2007 12
20% Renewables – in EU Apex Paris - October 2007 13
20% Renewables – in UK Where it is Apex Paris - October 2007 14
20% Renewables – in UK What it is Apex Paris - October 2007 15
So what’s new ? More focus on heat and fuels > Not simply electricity Increasing penetration of renewables > Exceeding nuclear, coal and oil Competition between energy markets > Power, heat & transport competing for: > Biomass > Gas Apex Paris - October 2007 16
What’s new for power ? Trend towards decentralised generation Offshore renewables: > International grids? Renewables delivery profile > Base-load / intermittent; predictability Advanced metering – new facilities: > Load management > Real-time price signals Apex Paris - October 2007 17
Implications for markets More and smaller energy producers Increased cross-border trading Regional (distribution level) potential? Real-time pricing More flexible demand Increasing role for balancing services New trading opportunities for heat? Apex Paris - October 2007 18
UK and European Renewable Energy trends and implications for energy markets Philip Wolfe Renewable Energy Association www. r-e-a. net Apex Paris - October 2007 19
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