337700b48e084dd015bcaefda179db9f.ppt
- Количество слайдов: 38
U. S. Economic and Market Update Fund Focus: Pioneer Funds – U. S. Mid Cap A. Wardwell, CFA Samuel Value Senior Vice President, Director of Investment Communications Pioneer Investment Management, Inc. March 2006
The U. S. Economy in 2005 Still in the “Goldilocks” zone § Consistent real GDP growth § Low unemployment § Low core inflation § Solid profit growth For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 2
2006 U. S. Economic Outlook § U. S. economic growth expected to be in range of 3 -4% § Unemployment expected to average around 5% § Core inflation expected to be roughly 2% § Oil price expected to gradually decline toward $50 § Profit growth expected to slow, but continue § Short-term U. S. interest rates expected to peak at 4. 5 -5% § Longer-term U. S. interest rates expected to remain near current levels § Dollar expected to weaken somewhat For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 3
U. S. Real GDP Growth Remains Strong The preliminary Q 4 number is not a signal of weakness Source: Data. Stream. Last data point: 2005 Q 4 For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 4
Recent Core Inflation Data is Encouraging Source: Data. Stream. Last data point: December 2005 For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 5
The U. S. is not far from Full Employment The unemployment rate has fallen to 4. 7% Source: Data. Stream. Last data point: January 2006 For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 6
Productivity Growth Remains Very High The “New Economy” is real Source: Data. Stream. Last data point: 2005 Q 4 For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 7
Corporate Profits are High and Growing Slowing profit growth is to be expected at this point in the cycle Source: Data. Stream. Last data point: 2005 Q 3 For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 8
The Hurricanes: No Lasting Impact on Energy Prices Source: Data. Stream. Last data point: January 31, 2006 For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 9
Little Pass-Through of Energy Prices to Core Inflation is Visible Thus Far Source: Data. Stream. Last data point: December 2005 For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 10
Ben Bernanke § Education – B. A. , Economics, 1975, summa cum laude, Harvard University – Ph. D. , Economics, 1979, Massachusetts Institute of Technology § Teaching – Stanford University 1979 -85 – Princeton University 1985 • Chairman of Economics Department § Government – Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, 2005 – Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2002 -2005 Photograph: Ron Edmonds/AP For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 11
The Evolving Language of the Fed The Fed’s language signals it isn’t finished yet § “a considerable period of time” § “patient” § “accommodation can be removed at a pace which is likely to be measured” § “some further measured policy firming is likely to be needed” § “some further policy firming may be needed” For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 12
Inflation and the Real Fed Funds Rate The Fed is now in the “data dependent” phase Source: Data. Stream. Last data points: January 31, 2006 For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 13
TIPS Breakeven Rates Signal Market Confidence in the Fed’s Control of Inflation Source: Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC. Calculated from smoothed nominal and TIPS yield curves. Last data point: January 26, 2006 For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 14
A Flattening/Inverting Yield Curve Source: Data. Stream. Last data point: February 14, 2005 For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 15
The Value of the Dollar: A 30 -Year View The value of the dollar is more or less where it was a decade ago Source: Data. Stream. Last data point: January 2006 For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 16
Both High Import Growth and Weak Export Growth Contribute to the Trade Deficit Source: Data. Stream. Last data point: 2005 Q 4 For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 17
The U. S. Budget Deficit was Beginning to Shrink Before Katrina Higher tax receipts due to economic strength, not spending restraint, were the reason Source: Data. Stream. Last data point: 2005 Q 3 For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 18
Global Interest Rates Source: Data. Stream. Last data point: January 2006 For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 19
U. S. Equity Valuations are Not Excessive Relative to Bond Yields Source: Data. Stream, Fact. Set. Last data point: December 31, 2005 For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 20
US Equity Market Leadership: Market Capitalization Mid Cap stocks have led since 1999 Source: Data. Stream. Last data point: January 31, 2006. The Russell Top 200 Index measures the performance of large-cap U. S. growth stocks. The Russell Midcap Index measures the performance of mid-cap U. S. value stocks. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of small-cap U. S. growth stocks. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 21
Mid-Cap Stocks Offer the Best of the Small- and Large-Cap Worlds Small-Cap Stocks Mid-Cap Stocks Large-Cap Stocks Stability X X Established market positions X X Potential for future growth X X Acquisition potential X X Adaptability to changing markets X X Experienced management X X Liquidity X X For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 23
Mid Cap: an Attractive Risk/Return History A Market “Sweet Spot”? Source: Zephyr For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 24
Pioneer U. S. Value Team Rod Wright Head of Value Team 20 Years Experience Aaron Clark Portfolio Manager 13 Years Experience Sean Gavin Associate Portfolio Manager 8 Years Experience Tim Horan Associate Portfolio Manager 7 Years Experience For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 25
Mid Cap Value Investment Philosophy and Process A Focus on Quality Value Philosophy: § Selecting quality companies, clearly undervalued, can add significant value while controlling risk; strategy is to sell risk and buy opportunity Focus: We seek to own: § Great companies at reasonable valuations § Good companies at a discount to fair value § Turnarounds at compelling values Objective: § Preserve capital; generate positive absolute returns; outperform the peer group and the S&P 500 Index For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 26
Pioneer Mid Cap Value Investment Process Investment Universe Fundamental Research Security Selection Portfolio Construction § Emphasis on companies within Russell Mid Cap Value Index; target capitalization between $1 -12 billion § Team of portfolio managers and analysts dedicated to in-house, fundamental, bottom -up research; face-to-face meetings with 1000 companies annually; § Security selection focuses on better than average companies – those with attractive characteristics, attractive prices and a value driver § Sector weightings decisions driven primarily by bottom-up, individual security selection; sectors are not targeted; portfolio construction is quantitatively enhanced; emphasis on long term investment horizon with appropriate diversification and favorable risk/reward For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 27
Mid Cap Value Investment Process Buy Discipline Three Keys to Value Characteristics §Growth §Profitability §ROIC §Market Position §Management §Balance Sheet Price §Undervalued §Attractive Risk Reward §Absolute Upside Value Drivers §Improving Fundamentals §Catalyst §Clear Strategic Plan For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 28
Mid Cap Value Investment Process Sell Discipline Reduce or eliminate positions when: – Stock reaches fair value or target price – A material fundamental change could adversely impact our view of fair value – Price appreciation makes risk/reward less favorable – A more attractive opportunity is uncovered For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 29
Pioneer Funds – U. S. Mid Cap Value Attractive Valuations (as of 31/01/06) Pioneer Funds U. S. Mid Cap Value Russell Mid Cap Value Index Price to Earnings (FY 1) 18. 0 19. 9 Price to Earnings (FY 2) 16. 6 17. 8 Price to Cash Flow 23. 4 20. 8 2. 0 2. 3 Price to Sales For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 30
Pioneer Funds – U. S. Mid Cap Value Quality Characteristics (as of 31/01/06) Pioneer Funds U. S. Mid Cap Value Russell Mid Cap Value Index EPS growth-5 years 14. 2 8. 6 Long-term growth rate (First Call) 11. 8 10. 1 ROE-3 year average 13. 3 10. 3 ROA-3 year average 4. 8 3. 0 Total Debt to Capital 41. 4 46. 0 For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 31
Pioneer Funds – U. S. Mid Cap Value Top 10 Holdings (as of 31/01/06) Security W. W Grainger Sector Industrials % of Fund 2. 1% Information Technology 2. 0% Ball Corp. Materials 2. 0% Ashland Inc. Materials 2. 0% Mellon Financial Corp. Financial 1. 9% Federated Investors Inc. Financial 1. 9% The PMI Group Inc. Financial 1. 9% Consumer Staples 1. 9% Air Products & Chemicals Materials 1. 8% Bear Stearns Companies Financial 1. 7% Xerox Corp. Safeway Inc. Total 19. 2% The portfolio is actively managed, and current holdings may be different. For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 32
Pioneer Funds – U. S. Mid Cap Value Sector Allocation (as of 31/01/06) The Fund is actively managed and portfolio sectors will vary over time. For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 33
Pioneer Funds – U. S. Mid Cap Value 5 -Year Risk versus Return (as of 31/01/06) Europe/HK North America Equity Mid Cap Category Average Pioneer Funds - US Mid Cp Value (A Non-Distributing USD) Russell Midcap Value Index Peer Group: Europe/HK - North America Equity Mid Cap -3. 00 0. 00 3. 00 6. 00 9. 00 12. 00 15. 00 5 Year Annualized Return 4. 00 8. 00 12. 00 16. 00 20. 00 24. 00 28. 00 5 Year Standard Deviation Source: Morningstar Direct For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 34
Pioneer Funds – U. S. Mid Cap Value Performance (as of 31/01/06) Percent *Pioneer Mid Cap Value Fund (a U. S. RIC of which Pioneer Funds – U. S. Mid Cap Value is a mirror) returns are used for performance purposes from inception date of Class A Shares USD distributing 31/05/95 until inception date 30/11/01 of the Unit Class A USD Non-distributing of Pioneer Funds – U. S. Mid Cap Value. For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 35
Pioneer Mid Cap Value Fund Outperformed the Morningstar Mid Cap Value Average 5 -Year Scatter Chart as of 12/31/05 Call 1 -800 -225 -6292 or visit www. pioneerfunds. com for the most recent month-end performance results. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. Pioneer Mid Cap Value Fund (Class A at NAV) Return The performance data quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate, and shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. . NAV results represent the percent change in net asset value per share. Returns would have been lower had sales charges been reflected. All results are historical and assume the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains. Morningstar Mid-Cap Value Funds Average Volatility (Standard Deviation) 12% 13% 14% Average Annual Total Returns As of 12/31/05 1 Year 3 Years Standard Deviations 5 Years 10 Years 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years Pioneer Mid Cap Value Fund (Class A at NAV) 7. 66% 21. 48% 10. 74% 10. 67% 11. 01% 14. 26% 15. 28% Mstar Mid-Cap Value Funds Avg. 8. 43% 20. 46% 9. 36% 11. 38% 11. 74% 14. 82% Source: Morningstar Direct and Lipper Inc. The Morningstar Mid Value category represents average annual total returns, excluding sales charges, for the mid-cap value funds in the Morningstar universe. The Lipper Mid Cap Value average represents the average annual total returns of all funds in the group in existence for the period. 16. 34% For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 36
Portfolio Manager J. RODMAN WRIGHT, CFA, Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager Connecticut College, B. A. (1984), New York University Graduate School, M. B. A. (1988) Joined Pioneer in 1994 Mr. Wright is responsible for management of the Pioneer Mid Cap Value Fund and the related Vision Variable Annuity Mid Cap Value Fund, as well as the offshore version, Pioneer Funds – Mid Cap Value Fund. Mr. Wright has managed these funds since January 1997, and served as assistant fund manager of the Mid Cap Value Fund since January 1996. He started his investment management experience in 1987. Prior to joining Pioneer, he was employed by the Prudential Investment Advisors, first as an analyst and later as a portfolio co-manager. For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 37
Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit!
Für die in den jeweiligen Ländern zum Vertrieb berechtigten Fonds von Pioneer Investments gilt: MARKETING UND VERTRIEB Pioneer Fonds Marketing Gmb. H, Hopfenstraße 4, 80335 München, Deutschland ✆ +49 (0) 89. 29 07 41 -0 +49 (0) 89. 29 07 41 -80 99 KUNDENSERVICE UND AUFTRAGSABWICKLUNG Pioneer Global Investments Limited, Niederlassung Deutschland Postfach 10 51 42, 20035 Hamburg, Deutschland GEBÜHRENFREIE TELEFON- UND FAXNUMMERN FÜR ANFRAGEN aus Deutschland: ✆ 0800. 082 08 68 0800. 082 08 73 aus Österreich: ✆ 0800. 29 76 57 0800. 29 14 76 Der Pioneer Funds – U. S. Mid Cap Value ist ein Teilfonds des Pioneer Funds, eines „Fonds commun de placement“ mit verschiedenen, voneinander getrennten Teilfonds, aufgelegt nach luxemburgischem Recht. Der Pioneer Mid Cap Value Fund wurde in der Rechtsform eines Business Trust nach dem Recht von Delaware, USA, gegründet. Die Fonds von Pioneer Investments erhalten Sie ausschließlich bei Banken, Versicherungen und ausgewählten Anlageberatern. Der Pioneer Mid Cap Value Fund der Pioneer Funds – U. S. Mid Cap Value werden vom selben Fondsmanager verwaltet und verfolgen ein ähnliches Anlageziel und eine vergleichbare Anlagepolitik. Die Portfolios sind jedoch in unterschiedlichen Ländern domiziliert und unterliegen dadurch abweichenden gesetzlichen Regelungen, was die Portfolioverwaltung beeinflusst. Die Anlageergebnisse können voneinander abweichen. Aufgrund unterschiedlicher Auflegungsdaten, Fondsvolumina, Portfolio-Holdings und anderer Faktoren gibt es keine Gewissheit, dass der Pioneer Funds – U. S. Mid Cap Value vergleichbare Ergebnisse wie der Pioneer Mid Cap Value Fund erzielen wird. Der für den Anteilserwerb allein maßgebliche Verkaufsprospekt ist als Druckstück kostenlos erhältlich in Deutschland bei der Pioneer Fonds Marketing Gmb. H und in Österreich bei der Bank Austria Creditanstalt AG, Wien. Die in der Vergangenheit erzielten Erfolge sind keine Garantie für die zukünftige Entwicklung einer Anlage. Soweit nicht anders angegeben, beruhen die in diesem Dokument enthaltenen Ansichten auf Recherchen, Berechnungen und Informationen von Pioneer Investments. Diese Ansichten können sich jederzeit ändern, abhängig von wirtschaftlichen und anderen Rahmenbedingungen. Es gibt keine Gewähr, dass sich Länder, Märkte oder Branchen wie erwartet entwickeln werden. Investitionen beinhalten gewisse Risiken, darunter politische und währungsbedingte Risiken. Die Rendite und der Wert der zugrunde liegenden Anlage sind Schwankungen unterworfen. Dies kann zum vollständigen Verlust des investierten Kapitals führen. Bitte lesen Sie den Verkaufsprospekt aufmerksam, bevor Sie investieren. Anteile des Pioneer Funds – U. S. Mid Cap Value („Anteile“) dürfen in den Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika („USA“) sowie zugunsten von US-Staatsangehörigen nicht öffentlich zum Kauf angeboten werden. Gleiches gilt für die Hoheitsgebiete oder Besitztümer, die der Gesetzgebung der USA unterliegen. Dieses Dokument ist kein Verkaufsprospekt und stellt kein Angebot zum Kauf oder Verkauf von Anteilen in Ländern dar, in denen ein solches Angebot nicht rechtmäßig wäre. Außerdem stellt dieses Dokument kein solches Angebot an Personen dar, an die es nach der jeweils anwendbaren Gesetzgebung nicht abgegeben werden darf. Nur für Vertriebspartner von Pioneer Investments ist ein Markenname der Unternehmensgruppe Pioneer Global Asset Management S. p. A. www. pioneerinvestments. de © Pioneer Fonds Marketing Gmb. H For broker/dealer use only U. S. Economic and Market update | 15. 03. 2018 | Seite 39