ü Integration into Russia ü Low crop yield (except sunflower) ü Decrease in a spread between world and Ukrainian prices ü Search for new trade areas ü Powerful vertically-integrated agricultural holdings Sales of excess output abroad are guaranteed: ü Favorable climate ü Access to the Black Sea and good transport infrastructure in the country ü Geographic location of developing countries ü Expected growth of their population ü Diet changes in the developing countries ü Relatively higher prime cost of goods produces by powerful rivals in the region, namely Russia, France and Germany Wheat Price (FOB), USD per mt Main industry trends: 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2005 Difference 2006 2007 2008 World 2009 2010 Ukraine 2011
Sunflower oil market composes of 2 viable segments: bulk oil market and bottle oil market Bulk oil: key market features New competitors 3. 9 Substitute products Rivals 3. 7 3. 6 2. 3 Bargaining Power of Buyers 3. 1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers ü ü 4. 0 MMT of sunflower oil in 2012 (80% on export) High level of market saturation Large number of producers Few owners of crushing capacities (Kernel 36%, Cargill 14%, Bunge 6%) ü Strong competition strengthened by demand for substitute products ü High profitability of sunflower raising Bottled oil: key market features ü Market heads towards exhaustion ü Domestic consumption stands at 420 million liters ü Excess is exported to the neighboring countries of the former Soviet Union with similar diet preferences Bottled oil in 2012 (by share of total sales) Kernel 32% Bunge 22% Korolivsky smak 7% Other 39% Yet there are no grounds for rapid growth of sunflower oil demand in the nearest future (current demand = 8% of the world oil consumption).
Grain market: key market features ü 57 MMT of grains in 2012 (including 22 MMT of wheat, 23 MMT of corn and 9 MMT of barley) ü 1/4 of the produced wheat and barley and 3/5 of corn are exported ü Market is relatively concentrated (TOP 5 grain exporters = 1/2 of the country’s export potential) ü Absence of available substitute products ü Growing number of potential grain consumers ü Strong rivalry on the market ü Cultivation of soybeans is expected to enhance thus it generates high profits New competitors 3. 7 Substitute products Rivals 3. 5 2. 3 2. 5 Bargaining Power of Buyers 2. 4 Bargaining Power of Suppliers Company Wheat Barley Corn Khlib Investbud 29% 24% 6% Nibulon 9% 5% 11% Kernel-Trade 8% 10% 8% Louis Dreyfus C. Ukraine 5% 11% 7% Serna 3% 3% 5% Total export, M tonnes 5. 3 2. 5 13. 6