Скачать презентацию Two Key Questions 1 Why do some organizations Скачать презентацию Two Key Questions 1 Why do some organizations

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Two Key Questions 1. Why do some organizations and individuals choose terrorism as a Two Key Questions 1. Why do some organizations and individuals choose terrorism as a strategy to further their political agendas? 2. Who joins terrorist organizations and why?

Why Do Organizations Choose Terrorism? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Strategic or Instrumental Why Do Organizations Choose Terrorism? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Strategic or Instrumental Model Realist Model The Democracy Factor Ethno-nationalism Expectations-Frustration-Aggression Resource Mobilization Theory

1. Strategic or Instrumental Model Cost Benefit Analysis Options A Costs ? Benefits ? 1. Strategic or Instrumental Model Cost Benefit Analysis Options A Costs ? Benefits ? B ? ? C ? ?

PLO Argument? • Israel Pre-1967 • Israel Post-1967 PLO Argument? • Israel Pre-1967 • Israel Post-1967

2. Realist Model • Power matters • The powerful ignore the weak • Demonstrating 2. Realist Model • Power matters • The powerful ignore the weak • Demonstrating your power makes you a player

Demonstrating your power For a nation-state For a non-state actor • North Korea ballistic Demonstrating your power For a nation-state For a non-state actor • North Korea ballistic missile test 2009 • Sept. 11, 2001

3. Democracy as a factor? • As target • Nationality of Terrorists • Negotiations? 3. Democracy as a factor? • As target • Nationality of Terrorists • Negotiations? Gerry Adams, MP of Sinn Fein Velupillai Prabhakaran of the LTTE

4. Ethno-nationalism • Palestine Flag • Independent Tamil state? 4. Ethno-nationalism • Palestine Flag • Independent Tamil state?

Ethno-nationalism Ethno-nationalism

5. Expectations-Frustration-Aggression • Davies J-Curve Q U A L I T Y Expectations Expectation 5. Expectations-Frustration-Aggression • Davies J-Curve Q U A L I T Y Expectations Expectation Gap O F L I F E reality TIME

6. Resource Mobilization Theory Arafat with Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko, 1978 Hizbullah Chief Hassan 6. Resource Mobilization Theory Arafat with Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko, 1978 Hizbullah Chief Hassan Nasrullah with Iranian Pres. Ahmadenijad

Narco-terrorism • FARC rebels loading cocaine shipment • Taliban cultivating opium Narco-terrorism • FARC rebels loading cocaine shipment • Taliban cultivating opium

Who Becomes a Terrorist and Why • Leaders vs. members • Full Time vs. Who Becomes a Terrorist and Why • Leaders vs. members • Full Time vs. Part Time OBL Driver Salim Hamdan $200/month

Who Becomes a Terrorist and Why 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Who Becomes a Terrorist and Why 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Poverty and Lack of Education Demographic Ideology Economic Factors Transitions Alienation, Humiliation, Identity Social Networks Prison, Torture, Revenge Money

1. Poverty and lack of Education? World’s Poorest Nations • • • Burundi. . 1. Poverty and lack of Education? World’s Poorest Nations • • • Burundi. . . $90 Ethiopia. . . $110 Democratic Republic of Congo. . . $110 Liberia. . . $110 Malawi. . . $160 Guinea-Bissau. . . $160 Eritrea. . . $190 Niger. . . $210 Sierra Leone. . . $210 Rwanda. . . $210 From: World Bank data http: //internationaltrade. suite 101. com/article. cfm/world_s_poorest_countries #ixzz 0 Pxjge. Gro

Education? Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri al-Jihad, al-Qaeda • Prof. Abimael Guzman, Shining Path Education? Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri al-Jihad, al-Qaeda • Prof. Abimael Guzman, Shining Path

2. Demographic Profile? • • • Age: 20 -29 Unmarried, except Salafists Drop outs 2. Demographic Profile? • • • Age: 20 -29 Unmarried, except Salafists Drop outs Urban vs. Rural terrorists Left vs. Right Male vs. female

3. Ideology Left Ulrike Meinhof, RAF Right Timothy Mc. Veigh Religious Ramzi Yousef, WTC, 3. Ideology Left Ulrike Meinhof, RAF Right Timothy Mc. Veigh Religious Ramzi Yousef, WTC, 1993

4. Economic Factors • Unemployment and Underemployment? • From: WTRG Economics, Oil Price History 4. Economic Factors • Unemployment and Underemployment? • From: WTRG Economics, Oil Price History and Analysis, http: //www. wtrg. com/prices. htm

5. Transitions • From Council on Foreign Relations, http: //blogs. cfr. org/setser/2008/04/28/120 -oil-and-the-rise-of-the-gulf/ 5. Transitions • From Council on Foreign Relations, http: //blogs. cfr. org/setser/2008/04/28/120 -oil-and-the-rise-of-the-gulf/

Transitions • Signing of Civil Rights Act, July 2, 1964 Transitions • Signing of Civil Rights Act, July 2, 1964

6. Alienation, Humiliation, Identity • Aum Shinrikyo’s Asahara Shoko and followers 6. Alienation, Humiliation, Identity • Aum Shinrikyo’s Asahara Shoko and followers

7. Social Networks Uncle Khaled Sheiikh Mohammed Nephew Ramzi Yousef 7. Social Networks Uncle Khaled Sheiikh Mohammed Nephew Ramzi Yousef

8. Prison, Torture, Revenge Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (Ahmed al-Khalayleh), imprisoned in Jordan 19921997 AQ 8. Prison, Torture, Revenge Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (Ahmed al-Khalayleh), imprisoned in Jordan 19921997 AQ in Iraq, leader until 2006 9. Money FARC-controlled areas