Transitions Honeymoons Transitions and Honeymoons

Transitions & Honeymoons

Transitions and Honeymoons • The Transition Period: Election Day to Inauguration Day – What difference does the transition make? – What makes a transition more successful? • How should we think about presidential honeymoons? – Does a president always have a honeymoon?

Campaigning is not Governing “Campaigning is about sharpening differences and making promises. And governing is about fulfilling promises and making the system work. ”

Campaigning is not governing “In a campaign you make promises to everybody, and you don’t really have to make choices among the promises…But when you’re governing, and the budget comes up, you’ve got to make a choice. ”

What helps a Presidential Transition? • • • Know that appointments make a statement Act fast Select White House Staff early Quickly settle futures of close advisers Fill Inner Cabinet posts early

Sequence of Presidential Appointments Week Nixon Appts 1 Chief of staff, press secretary, counsel Reagan Appts Press secretary Clinton appts Chief of staff, counsel Congressional liasion 2 Carter Appts 3 4 5 NSA, CEA 6 Entire cabinet Sec. of State, OMB Director Treasury, Transportation 4 inner cabinet, 4 outer cabinet, OMB, CIA Chief of staff, 1 inner cabinet, 3 outer cabinet, OMB, CEA 7 6 cabinet, NSA, CEA, UN Cong. Liasion, 4 outer cabinet, NSA, UN 4 outer cabinet, 2 inner cabinet, CIA, UN, NSA 8 2 cabinet sec’s 3 outer cabinet

What helps a Presidential Transition? • • Know that appointments make a statement Act fast Select White House Staff early Quickly settle futures of close advisers Fill Inner Cabinet posts early Know how the White House works Feed the press Have respect for Congress

Honeymoons? • With the press? • With the public? • With Congress?

Average Success During the First Hundred Days of Every Year 1961 -2001

Effects on Success in Congress in First 100 Days of any given year, 1961 -2001 • • • Average baseline success rate: 37% Inaugural year adds 13% Unified government adds 26% Pre-1974 Presidency adds 14% Public approval adds 1% to success rate for every increase of 5% in approval ratings