Transitioning Capabilities between NASA Research and NOAA Operations Stan Wilson IGST-10 Nov 14 -16, 2005 (rev 29)
Near Term • Transitioning between NASA and NOAA has been identified as a national issue • Congressional language in the NOAA FY 05 budget – “Provide NOAA the capability to transition NASA remote sensed ocean measurements into operational products for the user community” – Observations explicitly mentioned: “ocean winds from scatterometers, …sea level…from altimeters, and…ocean color” • An FY 05 Implementation Plan for a $4 M R&O Program has been developed and implemented • Initially funded as a one-year effort, the $4 M has been continued in the FY 06 budget
Longer Term • Establish a formal process – a Transition Plan – to facilitate the transitioning specific capabilities* between NASA and NOAA…by the end of the year • This is one of the Administrator’s priorities for NOAA • This is to be accomplished via a NASA/NOAA Joint Working Group for R&O led by Chet Koblinsky for NOAA • Progress will ultimately depend on success in the budget process – the first opportunity is FY 08 * The term, capabilities, includes the full range of activities extending from space hardware, calibration & validation, communications, ground data system including archival, timely access to data, assimilation of data into models, and the generation of associated analyses and forecasts
Sea Surface Height Objective • Transition satellite altimetry from NASA research to NOAA operations by implementing Jason-3 Status • NASA has provided 14 years of high-quality SSH, with TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1, but will not continue support beyond Jason-2 Identified Tasks • Justify user requirements for operational SSH – hurricane intensity, coastal sea level, S/I, climate analyses, global sea level rise. . . Overall Issue • Build the case for a Jason-3 new start in FY 08 budget with European partner
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NO. 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT. . . THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. . . DATA FROM THE NOAA JET CURRENTLY SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT. . . INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPWARD TO ABOUT 200 MB AND IT IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE SCALE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE. THIS PATTERN. . . IN COMBINATION WITH THE HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. . . FANCY WORDS FOR A WARM OCEAN. . . ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA. . . CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. . . THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE AN INTENSE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. . . Left source: NASA/JAXA TRMM TMI; right: NASA/CNES T/P & Jason-1, USN GFO, and ESA ENVISAT Figures courtesy of Gustavo Goni, NOAA/OAR/AOML
These are the actual data fields used in the SHIPS model at the Tropical Prediction Center to aid in forecasting the intensity of Hurricane Katrina. The top figure is the Reynolds SST field in degrees C. The bottom is the estimated Oceanic Heat Content derived from a combination of SST analysis fields, blended Sea Surface Height Anomaly fields from the Jason-1 and GFO altimeters, and a hurricane seasonal oceanic climatology (for June-Nov). Images courtesy of: Nick Shay, RSMAS/ U of Miami & Michelle Mainelli, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC
Sea Surface Height Tasks Participants Assess impact of sea surface height (SSH) in HYCOM on hurricane intensity forecasts • Mark De. Maria, Colorado State Univ. • Kerry Emanuel, MIT • Isaac Ginis, Univ. of Rhode Island • Gustavo Goni, AOML • Rick Knabb, NCEP/TPC; JTWC Assess impact of SSH in HYCOM on coastal forecasting for marine navigation, coastal planning, and resource management • Fred Toepfer, NCEP • Frank Aikman, NOS/CSDL • Ants Leetmaa, GFDL Assess impact of SSH on seasonal and interannual forecasting • Dave Behringer, NCEP/EMC Demonstrate in-house capability for operational calibration and quality assessment for Jason-2 Laury Miller, NESDIS Utilize SVW and SSH for improved estimates of surface current field for use by resource managers, hazmat response, and search & rescue • Gary Lagerloef, Earth & Space Research • Fabrice Bonjean, ESR Combine SSH and Argo for improved climate analyses and assessments • Ants Leetmaa, GFDL • Josh Willis, JPL Define observational requirements for global sea level rise via WCRP-endorsed workshop: Understanding Sealevel Rise and Variability, Paris, June 6 -9, 2006 • John Church, CSIRO • Phil Woodworth, PSMSL • Stan Wilson
Surface Vector Winds Objective • Identify the most appropriate path for NOAA to collect operational surface vector winds (SVW) Status • NASA Quik. SCAT data have been used operationally by NWS for 4 years • Post-Quik. SCAT SVW are to be provided by NPOESS/CMIS, but its performance is predicated on an evaluation of Wind. Sat Identified Tasks • Ensure timely access by NWS to Wind. Sat SVW to enable user evaluation • Refine Quik. SCAT products – rain flag & spatial resolution Overall Issue • To the extent that CMIS is inadequate, explore options for flight of a followon to Quik. SCAT – one option: a NASA C/Ku-band scatterometer with microwave radiometer
Surface Vector Winds Tasks Participants Assess operational impact of Quik. SCAT and Wind. Sat surface vector winds (SVW) on highseas wind forecasts • John Le. Marshall, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • John Derber, NCEP/EMC Improve accuracy of center-fixing of tropical cyclones and high-seas surface synoptic analyses • Paul Chang, NESDIS • Joe Sienkiewicz, NCEP/OPC • Rick Knabb, NCEP/TPC Develop improved operational rain flag for better detection and tracking of tropical & extra -tropical cyclones • Paul Chang • Steve Frasier, University of Massachusetts Provide real-time access to Wind. Sat by Weather Forecast Offices Paul Chang Provide finer-resolution products – both landmask and SVW – for use at coastal WFOs • Paul Chang • Mike Freilich, Oregon State Univ. • David Long, Brigham Young Univ. Assess operational impact of SVW at WFOs for short-term coastal forecasts – eg, small-craft advisories and frontal passages • Mike Freilich • Ralph Milliff, Colorado Research Associates • Weather Forecast Offices
Challenges • $1 B over-run in the $5 B NPOESS Program • Next generation of GOES is in development • Impact of Moon, Mars & Shuttle programs on Earth science at NASA
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