Trade and climate change Drivers Effects Flow-on

Trade and climate change Drivers Effects Flow-on & feedback cc impacts changing commodity supply esp agriculture Int’l price transmission, R&D, supply/demand policies Mitigation policy Energy mix and trade shifts Emis-intensive goods decline Structural change interactions eg biofuels Internal trade R&D/tech policy New tech avail & cheaper but capital costs higher Helps mitigation policies Carbon finance Int’l finance mex deeper&broader Some sell some buy Prerequisite for mitigation policy? Trade regime Greater specialization & trade OR isolationism cc – WTO interaction bilateral trade deals

Australia Drivers Effects Flow-on & feedback cc impacts Agriculture ↓ Adaptation incl internal migration Mitigation policy Coal ↓↓, gas ↑↓, renew ↑, uranium ↑ Aluminium, steel etc ↓ Decline of coal areas Biofuels vs food? R&D/tech policy CCS? ! Renewables, bioseq Crucial for coal’s future or demise Carbon finance Very likely buyer Regional engagement preferred Buying necessary for cost-effectively meeting ambitious targets Trade regime Strong preference for free trade

Indonesia Drivers Effects Flow-on & feedback cc impacts Agriculture ↓↑ Infrastructure ↓ Adaptation – might need facilitation? Mitigation policy Coal ↓, gas ↑↓, renew ↑ Reducing deforestation… Changes in forest areas and processing industries? R&D/tech policy Higher-tech combustion, geothermal Electricity demand grows and will be fulfilled somehow Carbon finance Could be large scale seller Need domestic policy frameworks Trade regime Agriculture protectionism on rise again? Self-reinforcing if well designed: esp get $ to local level