Tracking the money and monitoring progress Systems to

Tracking the money and monitoring progress Systems to Monitor and Evaluate Reconstruction Progress in Aceh World Bank Economic Development Seminar Series Jock Mc. Keon – 27 March 2008 World Bank

The rationale of post-disaster monitoring and analysis ¢ Quantify needs ¢ Determine reconstruction priorities ¢ Ascertain Government capacity ¢ Allocate funds where they are most needed ¢ Provide transparency and ability to hold agencies accountable

Reconstruction highlights Dec 07 US$6. 8 billion allocated to projects ¢ US$4. 2 billion (61% allocations) disbursed ¢ US$1. 2 billion disbursed to housing ¢ Environment, Energy, and Flood Control sectors remain under-funded ¢ Significant disbursements still required for housing and transport sectors ¢ Disbursements in 2007 slower than expected ¢

The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress

Reconstruction monitoring & evaluation methodology World Bank BRR “Tracking the Money” On Budget Off Budget ØAPBN ØDonors ØAPBD ØNGOs BRR M&E UNORC Others BPS BI World Bank Reconstruction Physical Progress Social and Economic Monitoring Ø# of house constructed Ø# of school built Ø# of health facilities built ØAgriculture land restored Ø# of boat built ØInflation ØEmployment ØWages ØMaterial Prices ØPoverty ØIDPs

The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress

Damage and losses assessment Guided by BAPPENAS with support from international agencies Released in January 2005 to CGI www. eclac. org/mexico/documents www. worldbank. org/hazards/policy/guidelines. htm

Tsunami damage and losses

The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress

Determining the needs – looking ahead Reconstruct ion needs Value of Damages Reconstruct ion program Financing Formula = Damages Consider: + Financing needs Government funds Private sector funds Priorities for reconstruction Insurance reimbursement ~ sectoral International grants ~ geographical International loans (diversion existing loans, fresh loans) technological improvement + relocation costs + mitigation costs + losses relating to capacity development + inflation estimate

Make appropriate adjustments for the needs analysis

The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress

World Bank expenditure tracking methodology

The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress

Sectoral allocations gaps against core minimum needs (allocations minus needs)

Spending progress to core minimum needs (disbursements minus needs)

The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress

Total commitments exceed minimum rebuilding costs: US$1. 5 bn available for “building back better” Commitments Allocations

Aceh tsunami update (Dec 07): US$7. 7 bn committed US$6. 8 bn allocated to projects US$4. 2 bn disbursed

Next steps? ¢ Post-conflict monitoring ¢ Continue monitoring of disbursements? (US$2. 6 bn to be spent) ¢ Is there potential for Govt to adopt this reconstruction monitoring? (BAPPEDA, BPDE? )

Working papers ¢ Managing Post-Disaster Reconstruction Finance - International Experience in Public Financial Management Fengler W, Ihsan A, Kaiser K World Bank, 2008 ¢ Using Data for Ex-Ante Preparedness for Disaster Management - Tracking the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami reconstruction funds in Indonesia Mc. Keon JM World Bank, 2008 ¢ Tracking Financial Flows after Disasters - Reconstruction Expenditure Tracking Analysis Methodology (RETAM) Fengler W World Bank, 2007 ¢ Tracking the Money: International Experience with Financial Information Systems and Databases for Reconstruction Agustina CD World Bank, 2007 http: //go. worldbank. org/TTAEQW 4 DR 0

www. worldbank. org/id/reconstruction