Today’s libraries, tomorrow’s users! Marshall Keys, Ph. D. MDA Consulting POB 534 Nantucket MA 02554 marshallkeys@mindspring. com
My career in serials • Rutgers University Library 1964 -66 • “Head Boy”, Periodicals Department • School of Information and Library Science Library, UNC 1976 • Serials check in, claiming, binding • Periodicals Department, University of Mississippi, 1977 -79 • My first assignment was ADDING 1300 new titles to the periodical collection
Assumptions and questions • The future of libraries depends on their ability to meet the emerging needs of users. • Who will those users be? • What are their emerging needs? • How will these needs differ from traditional needs? • How can libraries respond to them?
Theory: chaotic transitions • Graphic: growth (S) curves and chaotic transitions Theodore Modis Predictions 1992
Chaotic transitions and libraries • No dominant technological model – What are the tools that people will use to access knowledge in ten years? • No dominant business model – How will content be distributed in ten years? • No dominant intellectual model – What is a library in 2006? What will it be in 2016?
Why these issues matter “Successful organizations share a powerful understanding of what rapid social and economic change mean for consumers’ needs and wants. ” Nancy Koehn, Brand New, 2002
Chaotic transitions in demographics: fragmentation Steve Morris, Arbitron C. E. O. : ''People are dividing. Every age group, every cultural group and every demographic group is in the process of getting media packaged expressly for its members. ” • How will this affect libraries? • Your next local system will routinely support multiple languages, just like ATM’s • Serials: continued growth in resources collected by libraries
Chaotic transitions in demographics 1: the aging Boomers Graphic: Elderly men looking at computers • 330 Baby Boomers turn 60 every day this year! • High need, high use group • From technically savvy to completely naive • Tax averse • Competition between “good things”
“Who'll Sit at the Boomers' Desks? ” • By Fred Brock NYT Oct 12, 2003 The big baby-boom generation is starting to retire. There simply aren't enough workers behind them in the labor supply pipeline to fill their jobs. • See also “Coming Soon: The Vanishing Work Force, Eduardo Porter NYT Aug 29, 2004
Chaotic transitions in demographics 2: the world comes here Graphic: Cover of guide for migrants published by Mexican government • 28. 4 million US residents (10%) in 2000 were immigrants: – 50% from Latin America – 26% from Asia • Immigration: – the average daily wage in Mexico is $7; – The average daily wage for illegal workers in the US is $70 http: //www. pbs. org/frontlineworld/stories/mexico/facts. html
Accommodation or assimilation? • Graphic: : woman in hijab • Graphic: : French headlines about restricting Islam dress in schools • Graphic: : women in burka • Graphic: : Many women in burka and veil
Changing needs: library services in Somerville, MA • Staff speak Chinese, French, Italian, Portuguese, and Spanish. • Story time in English, Russian, German, French, and Spanish. • Children’s materials in English, Chinese, Portuguese, Spanish and Vietnamese. • Adult books in English, Chinese, Portuguese, French and Spanish. • 18 foreign language periodicals • Adult beginning reading materials, ESL materials, and ESL classes • Language requirement for MLS
Ethnicity and culture: “May I help you, Señor/a Martinez? ” • Leo Martinez • Lydia Martinez/Lidia Martinez • Maria Martinez
Staff: some cultural differences in the workplace • Sense of time: A meeting at 9: 30 AM Dinner at 7: 30 “Tomorrow” vs “mañana” vs “bukara” “A New York minute, ” ASAP, “I want it yesterday!” • Monochronous vs polychronous societies
Chaotic transitions in demographics 3: African-American diversity • Graphic: : Inner city kids in library • Graphic: : African American college Republican • A spectrum from Inner City kids to College Republicans • “America Beyond the Color Line” PBS documentary with Henry Louis Gates 2002/2004
A quiz: Sag Harbor, Oak Bluffs, and Jack and Jill • Graphic: : Brown party in Sag Harbor • Graphic: : ladies swimming in Oak Bluffs
The unknown demographic: the Black upper class • Graphic: • Puffy Combs • Graphic: : Chief operating officer, Genentech, Corp
“Breaking the Silence” Henry Louis Gates JR, NYT, Aug. 1, 2004 “Reality check: according to the 2000 census, there were more than 31, 000 black physicians and surgeons, 33, 000 black lawyers and 5, 000 black dentists. Guess how many black athletes are playing professional basketball, football and baseball combined? About 1, 400. In fact, there are more board-certified black cardiologists than there are black professional basketball players. ”
Changing assumptions about library service • Serving African Americans is no longer solely about serving poor communities • Serving African Americans is no longer solely about serving the underprivileged • What are the opportunities and what are threats for libraries?
To serve people, you must know them: attracting minorities to library work • What professions and fields of employment have been most successful in attracting minorities? • What do they do? • What can librarianship do to emulate them? • Look to natural constituents • Actively recruit
How do we create satisfying careers for minorities? • Fighting overt racism among staff and users • Fighting casual racist assumptions: – banished to the inner city? – banished to the cataloging department? • Fighting reverse or ethnic racism: – “Acting White” – Serb and Croat: “what started over there, stays over there. ”
Chaotic transitions in demographics 4 Another country: thirteen to thirty
“What’s a cassette? ” Young woman to young man on the MBTA subway, Boston, January, 2001
Buzznet • Graphic: Buzznet homepage with cowboy boot collection
The blog mentality • What I think is important to other people • Things are important because I think they are important: the “whatever” corollary: • If I don’t think it’s important, it isn’t important • “Esse est percipi”: • 51% of Bloggers are between 13 and 19, 90% under 30 • Privacy is unimportant; community is important • Bloggers are your users, your users-to-be, and the next generation of library leaders!
Michael Gorman (pre ALA) on Blogs • Graphic: • Michael Gorman looking wistful "I don't always think people's opinions are worth reading, " he says. "They should not be published. I really like the filtering that publishers do. You don't publish maundering. “ “What's the Difference Gorman vs. Stripling? ” by John N. Berry III – LJ 3/15/2004
And Blaise Cronin, Library School Dean • Graphic: Blaise Cronin “Blogging is CB radio on steroids. It’s all the rage. The Web has become the universal soapbox. No voice need be unheard; no whine denied oxygen. It’s the fusion of vanity publishing and the bully pulpit. Every idea, no matter how trite or crazy can see the light of digital day. ”
New Yorker cartoon “You don’t get it, Daddy, because they’re not targeting you!”
Not just Old Geezers: “Back in the 1980’s, ” says Emily Nussbaum, “When I attended high school, there were • • No cellphones No answering machines No “texting” No MP 3’s No JPEG’s No digital cameras No file sharing software No Worldwide Web” “My so-called Blog”, Emily Nussbaum, NYT Magazine Jan 11, 2004
Emerging users, dominant themes • Community • Personalization • Portable, ubiquitous technology
Community • Graphic: friendster homepage
Community • Graphic: thefacebook home page
Every parent’s worst fear • Graphic: my. Space homepage • 60, 000 users worldwide
Suddenly looks benign • Graphic: Boston Globe article “Wireless firms move into social networking”
Community • Graphic: Webshots homepage
Webshots College Parties • Graphic: Webshots sample page with “lingerie parties”
Community: You. Tube • Graphic: You. Tube home page
You Tube • Graphic: You. Tube sample page with illegal copyrighted items and salacious photos
Community: Where! • Graphic: Where! Homepage (photo flashmob)
Personalization: Pimp My Ride
Personalization: HGTV
Ubiquitous technology • Graphic: young man with cell phone • Graphic: Young man kissing IPod
Ubiquitous technology • Graphic: Slingbox -- cable television over the internet device
Ubiquitous technology • Graphic: Dish network portable movie viewer
Ubiquitous technology: Microsoft Origami • Graphic: new MS handheld multimedia computer • “Ultra-mobile computing”
Personalized, portable technology
Ridiculous personalized technology
“Branded ubiquity” • Every one of those items represents an attempt to make money by responding to and reinforcing a trend. • The stakes: who will control the interaction between gadgets? • What will libraries do to respond to those trends?
Buzznet depends on portable and personalized communication
The phone up close: personalization • Download ring tones that sound like the real thing ($5 billion in 2005) • Personalize your phone by saving your own pictures as Wallpaper • Jazz up your phone with full color pictures and Wallpaper • Interchangeable faceplates let you personalize your phone to suit your style • Marketing message: You are unique even though you are just like everyone else
The phone up close: information appliance • Send and receive e-mail • Send quick notes to your friends using text messaging • Send and receive AOL Instant Messages • Look up your horoscope or local information on movies, the music scene or whatever! • Marketing message: You are no longer tied to old stuff like computers
The phone up close: the phone ‘n’ more • Use your phone as a modem • Take pictures with the camera and send them to any e-mail address or T-mobile phone • Marketing message: you are connected to your friends through multimedia • Nowhere does the advertisemention using the phone to talk to people!
Trends: camera phones • Graphic: Family’s first picture from cameraphone US camera phone sales 2005: 47% of all mobile phones 70, 000 camera phones sold last year in the US! 2 for 1 in Rich Square, NC (pop 931)
Geoffrey Moore’s Model Technology adoption • Graphic: Innovators, early adopters, etc • (Crossing the Chasm, 1991)
Metcalfe’s Law N(N-1) The value of a communication system grows as the approximate square of the number of participants Robert Metcalfe, inventor of Ethernet
And leads to • Graphic: Lots of Japanese girls snapping pictures with phones A world of ubiquitous, multi-media communication
But wait, there’s more! • • • Video phone Game phone Music phone Movie phone “Momentum Is Gaining for Cell phones as Credit Cards – ”Matt Richtel NYT 1/10/05
Old: “Everything is on the internet” • Graphic: Google SMS reference service New: “Everything is on the phone”
Old: internet ready reference • Graphic: Google Answers reference service auction (set your own price)
New: telephone ready reference! • Graphic: AQA UK reference service; any question answered over the cell phone for 1 Pound ($1. 70)
And now in the USA: for 49 cents! • Graphic: Askmenow US telephone refence for 49 cents!
The predictions business "Video won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night. " - Daryl F. Zanuck, 20 th Century Fox, commenting on television in 1946
What does it mean to libraries? • Users for whom the phone is a/the primary information appliance – Phone interface to local systems and web based information resources – Reference through voice, text messaging – Reference through camera phones: what’s the difference between a photocopy and a photo? • Users who are willing to pay for information – delivered the way they want it! • Bandwidth and graphical interface issues
Trends reflected in changing models of acquiring information • Graphic: ; young woman studying in stacks • Graphic: kids together in reading room • Formal resources • Authority • Solitary activity • Peer to peer • Social networks • Being in touch all the time everywhere
What does it mean to society? “Camera phones mean we're living in a world with a million prying eyes. If you want to do something bad, you'll have a million eyes on you. You'd better get used to it. ' Clive Thompson “Remote Possibilities” NYT Magazine, 11/16/03 Flickr posts are often first news photos out of an event. Newsweek, March xx, 2006
What does it mean to the information industry? “In Japan, bookstores complain of ''digital shoplifting''; instead of buying magazines, readers snap pictures of stories and bulkforward them to friends: ‘It's like a Napster thing -- anything you see in the environment becomes something you can easily capture and share. ’” Thompson; see also “Cell phone cams spreading mischief”, Yuri Kageyama, Associated Press, July 10, 2003
Chaotic transitions in intellectual property ‘It's like a Napster thing - anything you see in the environment becomes something you can easily capture and share. ’
Industry responds with lawsuits • Graphic: New York Post “RIAA hits colleges with lawsuits” • Graphic: Technet “Hackers shut down RIAA website for five days” Hackers respond by shutting down RIAA website!
Industry responds with technology • “RIAA uses digital fingerprints and metadata" tags embedded within many MP 3 music files. ” Boston Globe, Aug 28, 2003 • Publishers respond with DOI • MPAA responds with “broadcast flags” Boston Globe, 8/28/9003
Courts consistently held against publishers • “Canadian court prevents suits against music sharers” • “US court: Software can't commit piracy” Until the US Supreme Court! • Graphic: US Supreme Court
Kids and the law • Graphic: girl on beach with pipe • Graphic: boy with giant joint • Graphic: two girls with marijuana seed pod, one in underwear
But it’s moot anyway: Earth Station 5 • Graphic: former Earth Station 5 Pto. P site
ES 5’s competitive advantage
If not Jenin, then Vanuatu
Because the cat is out of the bag • Graphic: cover of “Gray Album” by Dangermouse
The medium is the message • Graphic: Cover of Beatles’ “White Album” • Graphic: Cover of Jay Z’s “Black Album”
Chaotic transitions in the information business
The content business Elsevier stock price (US ADR’s) over the last ten years
The publishing industry responds : consolidation • Graphic: cover of “Consolidation in the US Publishing Industry” ppublished by RLG Example: “Taylor and Francis Buys Marcel Dekker for $138, 600, 000” in November, 2003
Taylor & Francis: swallowed 2004
How venture capital works “British Private Equity firms Cinven and Candover buy Kluwer Academic for € 600, 000” “Bertelsmann sells Springer to Cinven and Candover for € 1, 100, 000” “Cinven Candover plan to sell Springer, Kluwer in three years” May, 2003 Venture capitalists expect a 20% annualized return on money invested in an established business
Chaotic technology: new stuff coming down the road New ways to find information for new user expectations
Evolving information technology: the search for portability • Wireless networks are the current state of the art in library technology • Ubiquitous (“Ultra-mobile”) computing is the next • Where is the rest of the world going?
Old ways • Graphic: “Ahead of its time” (end of Apple Newton from Wall Street Journal)
New ways 2002 • Ovid in Hand Innovative Air. Pac
“The tyranny of computing” • • • Input Storage Processor Display Output All unified in a single device: desktop, laptop, PDA whatever!
Distributed computing: input Laptops add at least four pounds to a backpack. So students take notes on hand-held computers with foldout keyboards. At Yale Divinity School, Kristen Dunn uses a Palm VX and a foldout keyboard. ''It was the best money I ever spent in preparing for school. '' “Existential Essentials” by Melanie D. G. Kaplan, NYT, 8/1/04
Distributed computing: input • Siemens VKB (virtual keyboard)
Distributed computing: storage
Distributed computing: storage
Distributed computing: processing
Distributed computing: processing Linux for i. Pod
The issue: size vs content • Graphic: “Amazing! A man who wants a 36” screen wants • Rich graphical interfaces versus miniaturization • Bandwidth versus portability
Distributed computing: display
Distributed computing Output
Evolving technology New ways to find information
Old ways: portals
New ways: personalized portals At RIT. . . about half the students have created personalized versions of the [university’s] Web site. “Students. . . don't go looking to find information. They want information brought to them. ” Shifted Librarian Feb 12, 2004
Old ways: search engines
New ways: personalized search engines
Community: search engine with social networking Community, not privacy, is the message!
Community: social bookmarks Community, not privacy!
Community: social cataloging
Community: social cataloging
The problem with peer-to-peer • What if all your friends are stupid, uninformed, or have lousy taste in media? • Suspicions about Google and its algorithm • GIGO?
Personalized information access • Having it their way vs doing it our way • “Lean Consumption” Harvard Business Review March, 2005 – “using technology to reduce time and hassle for customers and get them what they want when they want it. ”
Personalized information access: the Amazon experience • What I looked at before • What other people looking at the same topic have looked at • What they think about what they looked at • What else I might like to look at based on what I looked at this time • But what about privacy? What about ALA?
Tomorrow’s users and privacy • Graphic: girls behaving badly flashing bras at fraternity party • Graphic: girls behaving badly, drinking in dorm in underwear
And what about privacy? • Graphic: NSA Project Echelon listening facility at Menwith Hill, Yorkshire • Graphic: hand of student who has had RFID chip implanted to control technology devices • No expectation of privacy because they do not believe that it exists in an electronic environment • If I view it or send it, they will see it • I don’t care • Bounded rationality
Evolving technology New ways to display information
Old Ways: local systems
Old ways: hit lists
New ways: knowledge maps
Knowledge maps: Grokker and Anacubis
New ways: classification browsers • Belmont Abbey College • Scholastica - a Graphic: interface for all holdings in LC order • Mapped to a stylized bookshelf • All formats appear in the same place for browsing • Newest first
New ways: classification browser
New ways: context management
Emerging technology • Graphic: Buncha guys sitting around playing video games Life beyond browsers
![New ways: beyond browsers “n 1999 [virtual stores] made no sense. A 3 -D](https://present5.com/presentation/d664606263f5958217e9d7904efdae60/image-119.jpg "New ways: beyond browsers “n 1999 [virtual stores] made no sense. A 3 -D")
New ways: beyond browsers “n 1999 [virtual stores] made no sense. A 3 -D store didn't fit with the people using the Internet through a Web browser. They would rather just use the two-dimensional store. The browser was a twodimensional medium. It still is. But the world of gamers is generally 3 -D. A 3 -D store doesn't seem like science fiction if the medium isn't the browser and the hardware isn't a PC. ” • “ 2004: Beyond the Browser? ” Jack Aaronson January 8, 2004 www. clickz. com/experts/crm_strat/article. php/3296541
Beyond the browser meets community toy: Playstation 2 To be everyone’s pal, show up at American University with a Sony Play. Station 2, pop in a game, open your door and voila! ''It's the one thing that made my social life significantly easier, '' says Steven White. ''Crazy Taxi was the game to have, or any sports game, things multiple people can play. ” “Existential Essentials” by Melanie D. G. Kaplan, NYT, 8/1/04
From community tool: Linux for XBox
From community tool: PS 2 supercomputer • National Center for Supercomputer Applications • The folks who brought you MOSAIC, father of Netscape, grandfather of Internet Explorer
Portable community tool: Portable Play Station
The predictions business “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? Harry M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927
Any time, any where, any way Professor Joseph Turow, at Penn, sees little difference between television and the Internet. Nor do his students. They watch ''The O. C. '' on their laptops, at home on Ti. Vo and by swapping the show (perhaps illegally) through file-sharing. The coming generation is accustomed to the idea of watching or listening to anything on any device that's nearby. Turow said his generation ''still thinks of media in compartmentalized ways. ''
What does the library look like if the medium isn’t a browser and the hardware isn’t a PC?
What do libraries change to remain relevant in a world in which • Users expect information to be delivered to them? • Users expect technology and interfaces to be highly personalized? • Users care more about convenience and community than privacy?
The library paradigm in transition Defending the brand
Decline in funding • Graphic: Boston Globe article “Don’t close the door on libraries” Despite the fact that more people are using libraries than ever before, more than $80 million has been cut from public library budgets in the past year alone [2004]. People profess to love libraries. But alas, libraries cannot live on love alone. We must be doing something wrong.
Decline in circulation “In 1996 -97, about 1, 000 items were checked out of the University [of Minnesota] Libraries. In 2002 -03, that was down to about 773, 000. ” “Library Borrowing Plunges in Scotland” “Book lending falls 30% as libraries turn to technology. Government spending remains static as budgets are focused on staff wages and internet investment …. Jenifer Johnston Glasgow Herald 8/24/04 “ Libraries [in England] blamed for their own decline” Report urges move from traditional book-lending centre to 'living room of the city‘. Fusty library authorities caught in the grip of traditional notions of the book-lending centre, ruled by fines for late returns, have encouraged a 17% national fall in library visits. ” Martin Wainwright, 8/18/03 The Guardian
Our concerns • Graphic: New Yorker cartoon of two spies replacing lions on steps of New York Public Library
Aren’t shared by everyone • Graphic: headline from Quincy, MA, Patriot-Ledger “Librarians Part of the Problem” on use of libraries by 911 conspirators, other criminals
Important stakeholders are confused “You know, when it comes down to it, I’m not sure I know the role of an academic library in an electronic environment. ” College president interviewed during a consulting assignment
So where are we?
We have new populations to serve • • Some of whom don’t know what we do; Some of whom don’t care what we do; Some of whom can’t access what we do. And we are being asked to do it with fewer resources.
Our content providers are caught between • Complete disregard of any concept of intellectual property among the young – file sharing • Growing revolt by content creators against the established model – PLOS, preprint servers, blogs, CD’s • Refusal of major customers to accept the existing business model – The Big Deal
Libraries haven’t got any money • All kinds of things are appearing on the horizon that will cost lots of money, • We don’t have any money, • And vendors, with major troubles of their own, cannot, will not, and should not provide products or services at unsustainable prices
We have a huge investment in the status quo We have huge investments – human and financial – in technologies that are not at the cutting edge; We are rule-bound organizations in a society with little respect for limits; We are unwilling to enforce many limits of which society does approve, but We are professionally committed to other ethical postures opposed to the present environment
We are committed to a medium, not a message We remain identified with print when the world can – view DVD’s in their cars – carry their music and video collections in their pockets – Search databases and view videos on their cell phones Does the American Medical Association have a “Center for the Stethoscope” the way we have a “Center for the Book”?
We are committed to places, not to missions • • Blockbuster vs Netflix Borders vs Amazon Civic monuments vs libraries Central libraries vs branches • We need to think hard about our products, our services, our brand
The challenge? How to reinvent libraries for a digital way of life
The new user • Graphic: photo of Charles Lax himself, found many years after article through diligent research! Charles Lax, a venture capitalist, is sitting in a conference near LA, but he isn’t all here. Out of one ear, he listens to a live presentation while he surfs the Net on a wireless laptop, occasionally checking his Blackberry for e-mail. He flew from Boston and paid $2, 000 to attend. But he can’t unwire himself long enough to give the presenters his complete focus. If he did, he would face a fate worse than lack of productivity: he would become bored. “The Lure of Data, ” Matt Richtel, NYT, July 7, 2003
Dilemma: the economics of attention • Classic marketing issue: a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention • Classic marketing responses: – Personalization by profiling – Customization – Delivering the way they want it
The future • The past: print-centric libraries • The present: web-centric libraries • The future: user-centric libraries? – Customer focus, not organizational focus – Not library technology but user technology – What they have, not what we have – What they want, not what we want to give them
Creating a library for the millennial generation: Susan Kent’s answer • “The future for libraries is personalizing service on a customer interest basis. ” • “The future focus of technology in libraries will be promoting and delivering contentrich programming. ” • They have the technology; we need to adapt to it • Innovative electronic resource management
A library accessible to user technology • Desk top computer, Laptop, PDA, Telephone, i. Pod, even game station • Marketing message: “Any where, any time, any way you want, your library is there”
A library fully accessible to user technology • Circulation is an outdated measure of service • Users who do not come to the library are not a failure: – “Treat all students like distance education students” Ann Marie Casey, Central Michigan University • Academic Message: Research from the dorm is the norm! • Public Message: Research from the car or wherever you are!
A library that uses technology to offer rich program content: • Library resources accessible to PDAs, telephones, emerging devices – Local systems, indexes, full-text, video, audio • Longer term: Open source library resources accessible to all open source devices including i. Pods, game players
“The future is here, it’s just not evenly distributed” William Gibson • Graphics: four library projects that are already following the recommendations made here
Our future, our challenge for the next 20 years? Shifting from what we know to create library services for a digital way of life
The Big Danger • Graphic: Roz Chast cartoon of “The Worry Tank”, people brainstorming ways to be unhappy about the future!
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