TMI Annual Conference Oxford 11 Oct 2007 —

TMI Annual Conference Oxford, 11 Oct 2007 - “Shaping Up to Climate Change: From Cannes to Cleethorpes" Tom Buncle Managing Director, Yellow Railroad

Presentation Outline Ü The Science Ü Implications for UK Tourism Ü Destination Management – What Can You Do? Ü Maintaining a Sense of Perspective Yellow Railroad

1. The Science Yellow Railroad

The Science Global changes in 100 years Ü Aral Sea: – 75% in 40 years Ü Mt. Kilimanjaro: – 80% snow cover in 100 years Ü Coral reefs: – 40% destroyed/depleted Ü Alpine glaciers: – 10% in 2003 alone Ü Lake Chad: – 95% in 44 years - 25, 000 500 sq miles - Fish stocks: 230, 000 50, 000 tonnes Yellow Railroad Ü

The Science UK Ü Hotter, drier summers Ü Wetter winters Ü Heavier rainfall (intensity vs. volume) Ü Less snow Ü Sea level rise Ü Greater extremes (storms, sea surge, summer heat) Source: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research; Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Yellow Railroad

The Science UK: Regional Differences Southeast temp increases more than north Ü South/southeast = Mediterranean climate? Ü North = comfortable or too wet? Ü + Yellow Railroad

The Science – 4 Scenarios (UK) Ü Low, medium – low, medium – high, high Ü 2020, 2050, 2080 Ü Worst case (2080) : - temperature + 1 -5 c summers 35 -50% drier winters 10 – 35% wetter Source: UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP); Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research; Yellow Railroad

The Science: Temperature Change 2020 s 2080 s Source: UKCIP 02 Climate Change Scenarios 2050 s Yellow Railroad

The Science: Precipitation 2020 s 2080 s 2050 s Source: UKCIP 02 Climate Change Scenarios Yellow Railroad

2. Implications for UK Tourism Yellow Railroad

Implications for UK Tourism All good news ……. . ? Warmer summers Ü Longer season Ü Domestic increase Ü Steal market from Yellow Railroad Ü

Implications for UK Tourism But what about impact on: Ü Ü Ü Ü Ü Market demand Product capacity Infrastructure / transport Urban vs. rural Different regional impacts Attractions & activities Wildlife Health & safety Business costs Yellow Railroad

Implications for UK Tourism Market demand Longer season Ü Outdoor activities, esp. watersports Ü Family appeal Ü Mediterranean resorts - south ? (31 o = comfort Ü level) Café culture Ü Lighter menus Ü More visitors = congestion, environmental degradation, changing preferences, changing Yellow Railroad

Implications for UK Tourism Product impact Footpath erosion Ü Rising sea level = coastal erosion Ü Shelter – from rain & sun Ü Air conditioning Ü Water shortage ? Ü Decline in indoor attractions Ü No winter sports – Scotland Ü Higher food prices. Yellow Railroad (grain – me Ü

Implications for UK Tourism Infrastructure (flooding, heat, fire, storms): Ü Ü Road: subsidence, melted tarmac, flooding = safety, delays Rail: landslides, buckled rails = closure, speed restrictions (cf. 2003) Ü Air: subsidence, melted asphalt, flooding, road access = delays Yellow Railroad

Implications for UK Tourism Infrastructure (flooding, heat, fire, storms): Ü Ü Natural environment: increased fire risk, algae bloom, increased river pollution – flow rate…. . = emergency services, country code Planning policy: open space, greenery, water in cities = cooler ; storm drains; Yellow Railroad emergency planning

Implications for UK Tourism Business Costs Ü Insurance premiums Ü Maintenance & repair / renewal Ü Lower heating costs? Ü Ü New equipment (e. g. aircon, lighter duvets etc. ) New products (e. g. outdoor eating, activities) Yellow Railroad

Implications for UK Tourism Other Ü Food: longer growing season = local produce (1900 - 2000: + 30 days)*; new varieties (e. g. wine); But …… drought, floods, late frost: root damage, crop pests, livestock disease? Ü Wildlife: species migration, greater biodiversity? Ü Flora: Arctic/Alpine flora decline Ü Health & Safety: mosquitoes, malaria, bacterial paradise, food poisoning, heatstroke, disease; protective clothing? * Source: UKCIP 02 Climate Change Scenarios Yellow Railroad

3. Destination Management: What Can You Do? Yellow Railroad

Behaviour Change …. . ? Ü Words vs. action: 2/3 talk vs. 1/3 action Levers: Ü Social conscience Ü Economic self-interest Ü Legislation Yellow Railroad

Destination Management - Actions Ü Plan Persuade politicians Partnership Risk assessment Tourism policy: “climate –proof” Ü Marketing strategy (e. g. high value, low impact, Ü Ü “green visitors”) Green accreditation scheme Ü Reduce, re-use, recycle Ü Yellow Railroad

Conclusion Ü More opportunity than threat but……… Ü Variable by region and product Ü Prepare – “climate proof” !! Yellow Railroad

4. Maintaining a Sense of Perspective Yellow Railroad

A Sense of Perspective Ü Food miles Ü Air travel Ü Car travel Yellow Railroad

A Sense of Perspective Carbon emissions Ü 33% - from energy industries Ü 25% - from driving Ü Ü ? ? ? % from manufacturing ? 4 - 6% - from tourism * 1% - from aircraft (c. 1. 6% Source: UNWTO “Climate Change & Tourism: Responding to Global Ü Challenges” Yellow Railroad

A Sense of Perspective Food Miles Ü VS. UK farms less energy efficient than developing world Ü UK farmers receive £ 0. 50 p subsidy p. litre of diesel Ü 85% of energy used in distribution occurs after arrival in UK Ü UK consumers produce 30 x Yellow Railroad

A Sense of Perspective Carbon per tonne Ü Lamb: UK – 2, 849 kg vs. NZ – 688 kg Ü Apples: “Green” = buy British in autumn-winter / imported in spring-summer (storage) Ü Roses: Holland @ 0. 5 kg p. stem vs. Kenya @ 2. 9 kg p. stem (= 17% of Dutch emissions) Source: Lincoln University, New Zealand Yellow Railroad

A Sense of Perspective Employment Ü Ü Tourism often only hope in developing countries Ü Kenyan flower workers = 70, 000 1 m in related trades* Ü * Source: Panos Institute, London Nov Tourism = 10% jobs worldwide Blue Skies (fruit Yellow Railroad importer)

A Sense of Perspective Aviation Ü Aviation = fastest growing source of carbon emissions But…. . Ü * Source: Panos Institute, London Nov Technology advance = fuel efficiency (Boeing 787 = 27% more fuel efficient Yellow Railroad than A 340)

A Sense of Perspective We need a “climate change balance sheet”: VS. Yellow Railroad

Further Information Ü UK Climate Impacts Programme: www. ukcip. org. uk/scenarios Ü Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research: www. tyndall. ac. uk Ü Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research: www. metoffice. gov. uk/research/hadleycentre Ü Sustainability Northwest/Northwest Development Agency: www. snw. org. uk/tourism Ü Scottish Climate Change Impacts Partnership: www. sccip. org. uk Yellow Railroad

Tom Buncle Yellow Railroad tom@yellowrailroad. com www. yellowrailroad. com Yellow Railroad