THORPEX-WCRP Collaborations and other climate relevant activities of the WWRP WCRP/JSC 31 WMO/WWRP/THORPEX www. wmo. int/wwrp www. wmo. int/thorpex 1
WWRP The IPY-THORPEX CLUSTER LEGACY
The IPY-THORPEX CLUSTER LEGACY WWRP Ø Data for improving physical parameterization in NWP models: clouds, microphysics, surface fluxes Ø Improved assimilation techniques for high latitudes with emphasis on satellites data Ø Increased understanding on the effect of the use of ensemble simulations for high latitudes Ø Increased understanding on the effect of targeting in high latitudes Ø Increased understanding of dynamics of high latitude, high impact weather phenomena Ø Demonstration of the effect of new instruments Ø Demonstration of the effect of increased Arctic and Antarctic observations for local and extra-tropical NWP forecasting 3
WWRP The International Project Concordiasi continuing element in the Antarctic 4
Major goals Objectives Concordiasi Ø To improve the assimilation of satellite data over the southern polar region (with emphasis on IASI sounder). Ø To improve understanding of the stratospheric ozone budget. Ø To evaluate the impact of better analyses and forecasts on ozone profile simulations in chemical transport models. WWRP Ø To provide recommendations on the design of the global observing system over the southern polar region (e. g. for enhanced prediction of high impact weather over lower latitudes). 5
A POLAR PROJECT Ø The Commission of Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) recommended the establishment of a THORPEX/WWRP Polar project as a legacy of the International Polar Year (IPY) Ø Autumn 2010 workshop to plans for a THORPEX/WWRP Polar project WWRP Ø It was agreed that the successful development of polar prediction systems requires the involvement of the THORPEX/WWRP, GAW and WCRP 7
SUB-SEASONAL TO SEASONAL PREDICTION Ø The Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) noted that there are growing requirements for operational sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions of weather, climate, water and air pollution. Ø In this regard, coordinating the research activities of WWRP the WCRP CLIVAR Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP) and the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) on subseasonal and seasonal predictions is timely. Ø Research on tropical convection is the main focus of the YOTC project which is already a collaborative WCRP/THORPEX/WWRP effort. 8
WMO Expert Team on assessment of the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones Ø To appear in upcoming issue of Nature Geosciences (under press embargo until then) WWRP Ø Undertaken every four years and includes both climate and weather scientists with expertise in tropical cyclones (T. R. Knutson, J. L. Mc. Bride, J. Chan, K. Emanuel, G. Holland, C. Landsea, I. Held, J. P. Kossin, A. K. Srivastava, and M. Sugi) Ø Will highlight limitations of past observational assessments and note improvements in both higher resolution modeling and downscaling techniques Ø Will issue consensus statement on changes in frequency and intensity based on published predictions
SUB-SEASONAL TO SEASONAL PREDICTION § Data assimilation for coupled models as a prediction and validation tool for weather and climate research Ø Promote research towards the development of a composite data assimilation system, applying different assimilation steps to different scales (weather to climate time-scales) and components (atmosphere, land, ocean, atmospheric composition) of the total Earth system model. WWRP Ø Promote the need to validate climate models in a deterministic prediction mode (e. g. WCRP SPARC Programme, WGNE Transpose AMIP). The sub-seasonal prediction time frame provides a valuable opportunity and new challenge. Ø Promote interdisciplinary research on data assimilation methods appropriate for the next generation of re-analysis projects aimed at developing historical records for climate studies (e. g. funding synergies).
SUB-SEASONAL TO SEASONAL PREDICTION WWRP Ø The CAS requested that THORPEX/WWRP and WCRP to set up an appropriate collaborative structure to carry out an international research initiative on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting. Ø It recommended that this is closely coordinated with the present existing Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) of WMO infrastructure for long-range forecasting (with centres producing long-range forecasts and regional climate centres) and with the future developments in WMO climate service delivery and the Global Framework for Climate Services called for in the High-Level Declaration of WCC-3. 12
Discussion § A Polar Project § Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Ø Seamless weather/climate prediction with Multi-model Ensemble Prediction Systems (e. g. TIGGE and CHFP) WWRP Ø The multi-scale organisation of tropical convection and its two-way interaction with the global circulation (e. g. YOTC) Ø Data assimilation for coupled models as a prediction and validation tool for weather and climate research (e. g. re-analysis projects)
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