THORPEX David Burridge WMO WWRP THORPEX International Programme

THORPEX David Burridge WMO WWRP THORPEX International Programme Office

THORPEX Priorities WWRP ØGlobal-to-regional influences on the evolution and predictability of weather systems ØGlobal observing-system design and demonstration ØTargeting and assimilation of observations ØSocietal, economic, and environmental benefits of improved forecasts

Data Targeting WWRP ØValue of extra-tropical targeted data has been found to be positive, but small, on average ØObservations taken in sensitive areas have more value than observations deployed randomly ØThere are limitations due to the current assimilation methodologies (not yet fully flow-dependent) ØSensitive area characterization does not appear to be the first order problem ØAdditional observations for tropical cyclones have proven to be useful (further T-PARC analysis important)

The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) A key component of THORPEX: a World Weather Research WWRP Programme to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1 day to 2 -week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of humanity. The TIGGE project has developed a database of global ensemble forecasts collected in near real-time. Objectives: Ø Enhance collaboration on ensemble prediction, both internationally and between operational centres & universities. Ø Facilitate research on ensemble prediction methods, especially methods to combine ensembles and to correct systematic errors Ø Enable evolution towards a prototype operational system, the “Global Interactive Forecast System”

300 GB per day WWRP TIGGE data flows (6 to 30 h after real time) TIGGE – David Parsons (session II)

Flood prediction with ensembles La Stampa, 29 April 2009. La Regione Piemonte «Stato di emergenza dopo la piena» . In tutto il Piemonte ci sono stati allagamenti e smottamenti di strade. Situazione difficile oltre che ad Alessandria anche nel Cuneese, nell'Astigiano e in Val d'Ossola. La presidente Mercedes Bresso ha chiesto lo stato di emergenza. Allerta per il Po’ invece dalla Protezione civile dell'Emilia-Romagna, dove la piena e' attesa per oggi. La piena in Piemonte, dovrebbe avere una portata stimata sui 7. 000 metri cubi al secondo. WWRP Alessandria, 29 April 2009. The Tanaro river reaches extremely high levels (photo A Contaldo, Photonews, available from http: //torino. repubblica. it/) La Repubblica, 30 April 2009: Crolla un'arcata, precipitano 4 macchine. Grave un automobilista ricoverato in rianimazione. Piena del Po’, crolla ponte a Piacenza Le auto finiscono in acqua: 4 feriti Piena del Po#, crolla ponte a Piacenza. Un'arcata ha ceduto alla furia della piena del fiume e l'asflato si è piegato verso l'acqua trascinando quattro auto. La strada si è piegata in una sorta di "v". Piacenza, 30 April 2009. The collapse of one of the bridges across the Po’ river (photo P Caridi, Word. Press, available from http: //peppecaridi 2. wordpress. com/).

WWRP Number of ensemble members based on the ECMWF EPS forecast from the 24 th of April 00 UTC simulating discharges which exceed the EFAS high alert level for the Po river basin. The circles denote the locations of reporting points.

Towards the Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS) Ø The objective of the GIFS is to realise the benefits of THORPEX WWRP research by improving the delivery of improved forecasts of highimpact weather. Ø As a first step, the GIFS-TIGGE working group set up a pilot project for the exchange of real-time tropical cyclone predictions using “Cyclone XML” format. Ø Forecast and research demonstartion projects are being developed by the GIFS-TIGGE WG and regional centres to predict tropical cyclone tracks and heavy rainfall

WWRP The IPY-THORPEX CLUSTER OBJECTIVES ØAssess and seek to improve the quality of operational analyses and research reanalysis products in the Polar Regions ØAddress improving data assimilation techniques for Polar Regions ØAssess the skill in the prediction of polar to global high impact weather events for different observing strategies in higher latitudes ØDemonstrate the utility of improved utilization of ensemble weather forecast products for high impact weather events and for IPY operations, when applicable ØDevelop recommendations for the design of the Global Observing System in polar regions for weather prediction ØConduct field campaigns during the IPY intensive observing period to assist achievement of the goals ØAddress two-way interactions between polar and sub-polar weather regimes

T-NAWDEX THORPEXNorth Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment Ø address the triggering of waveguide disturbances by different processes and the disturbances’ subsequent downstream evolution WWRP Ø study of the downstream impacts of the waveguide disturbances over Europe, the Mediterranean, and northern Africa To be performed in 2011/2012 in conjunction with HYMEX 11

HYMEX: Main Scientific Topics WWRP Better understanding of the intense events: processes and contribution to the trend Jean-Pierre Chalon – session V CBSXIV March 2009 EPS - RAVI (D Burridge) 12

T-NAWDEX aircraft observations WWRP Use HALODemonstration Mission HALOTHORPEX for field phase Test – November 2009 - UK FAAM BAE 146 -301 Large Atmospheric Research Aircraft G-LUXE

Highlights - summary WWRP Ø Three major real-time international observational programmes have been completed (for the Atlantic and Pacific) A-TREC, E-TREC and T-PARC (Tetsuo Nakazawa & Zoltan Toth – session II) Ø Plans for T-NAWDEX and Hy. Me. X are maturing Ø Reports on the effectiveness of data-targeting have been completed Ø International data bases (TIGGE) of near-real time global ensemble predictions from ten prediction centres have been established and the results are being provided for wide-ranging research by three archive centres Ø The THORPEX IPY Cluster of projects have made a major contribution to observing and NWP for polar regions

Highlights – summary 2 WWRP Ø A major contribution has been made to AMMA Ø The YOTC project has been established Ø The THORPEX community has made a contribution to the WWRP Strategic plan Ø Regional Plans have been developed Ø Three Science Symposia have been held - (2004 in Montreal (Canada), 2006 in Landshut (Germany) and 2009 in Monterey (USA)) Ø In addition, the THORPEX community and partners are leading four GEO tasks (for health, climate, ensembleprediction and high impact weather in Africa) and these projects are now the main elements of the GEO weather prediction activity.

Future emphasis WWRP Ø Basic issues of predictability and key dynamical processes Ø The required initial conditions and implied observational coverage Ø Strategies for observations targeting in critical situations Ø Tackling the problem issues in data assimilation especially at high resolution Ø Handling of the tropics particularly organised convection, tropical cyclones and extra-tropical transition and interactions Ø Polar weather Ø Seamless prediction of weather and climate from days to weeks and seasons (see CASXV Agenda item 7)