Thinking Warm Up With your group

Thinking

Warm Up • With your group discuss the following: – What problem solving strategies did you use when solving yesterday’s various challenges?

What is thought? Our concept of men may include all of the following guys…. • There are basically two types of thought… 1. Concepts (schemas)…usually based on prototypes. 2. Images But they are based on our prototype (ideal) male…. .

Take Out a Piece of Paper • Respond to the categories I am about to list with the very first example that comes to mind… 1. A bird 2. A color 3. Draw a triangle 4. A vehicle 5. A hero 6. A heroic action 7. A board game 8. A philosopher 9. A flower 10. A fruit

Take Out a Piece of Paper • Did you say one of the following for each: 1. A bird – robin or eagle? 2. A color – red or blue? 3. Draw a triangle – an equilateral one? 4. A motor vehicle – car? 5. A hero – Superman or Batman? 6. A heroic action – a single act by a male? 7. A board game Monopoly 8. A philosopher – Socrates? 9. A flower – rose? 10. A fruit – apple?

Problem Solving

• Trial & Error • Subgoals – Ex: Tower of Hanoi Problem • Insight – “A-HA” Moment – Ex: The Problem Solving Riddles

Algorithms • A rule that guarantees the right solution to a problem. • Usually by using a formula. • They work but are sometimes impractical. – “Friendship Algorithm”

Heuristics • A rule of thumb that generally, but not always, can be used to make a judgment to solve a problem. • It is fast, but is… • Prone to errors • Two major types of heuristics….

Representativeness Heuristic Who went to Harvard? My friend Dan is a smart dude, but did not go to Harvard (but he looks like he did). • If I tell you that Sonia Dara is a Sports Illustrated swimsuit model, you would make certain quick judgments (heuristics) about her…like about her interests or intelligence. • She is an economics major at Harvard University. • Judging a situation based on how similar the aspects are to the prototypes the person holds in their mind. • Like thinking everyone from Pittsford is preppy, or someone with glasses is nerdy, or a blonde is not smart.

Survey • Complete the survey in 5 minutes • Estimates can range from 50% (I’m just guessing) to 100% (I’m absolutely certain)

Answers • Deaths per 100, 000 1. All accidents (37. 7) vs. Strokes (51. 1) 2. Suicide (10. 9) vs. Blood Poisoning (11. 2) 3. Homicide (5. 9) vs. Diabetes (24. 5) 4. Motor Vehicle Accidents (15. 3) vs. Colorectal Cancer (17. 8) 5. Drowning (1. 3) vs. Leukemia (7. 1)

Answers 6. Morocco (34 million) vs. Saudi Arabia (28 million) 7. Myanmar (47 million) vs. Australia (21 million) 8. Vietnam (86 million) vs. South Africa (48 million) 9. Sri Lanka (20 million) vs. Libya (6 million) 10. Tanzania (38 million) vs. Iraq (28 million)

Answers Rates based on cases per 100, 000 11. Chicago (15. 6) vs. Kansas City (26. 1) 12. Las Vegas (11. 3) vs. Stockton, CA (14. 6) 13. Miami (13. 9) vs. Phoenix (15. 0) 14. Honolulu (1. 7) vs. Raleigh (6. 0) 15. New York (6. 6) vs. Aurora, CA (9. 5)

Consider these… • Why are people more fearful of playing than driving even though flying is way safer? • Why do people swimming in the ocean fear getting attacked by sharks (less than 1 death every two years in US), when it is much more likely they would be killed by a falling coconut (about 150 annually!)? Unless of course you find yourself caught in a Sharknado! • Are violent crimes or property (burgularly) crimes more prevalent? – 1, 214, 462 vs. 8, 975, 438 • What percentage of accused felons plead insanity? What percentage are acquitted? – Less than 1%, of which only 25% are acquitted • What percentage of convictions for felony crimes are obtained through trial instead of plea bargaining? – Less than 10% obtained through trial, more than 90% through plea bargaining • Why do we overestimate these statistics?

Availability Heuristic Which place would you be more scared of getting mugged or even murdered? • Judging a situation based on examples of similar situations that initially come to mind. • Vivid examples in the news often cause an availability heuristic. The crime rate of Gary, Indiana is MUCH higher than the Bronx. But when you think of crime, which town comes to mind? Gary, Indiana I realize the Bronx picture is misleading. The Bronx, NY

Heuristics can lead to Overconfidence… • Our confidence is not a good indicator of how right we are. • Belief Perseverancemaintaining a belief even after it has been proven wrong. • Belief Bias- People will tend to accept any and all conclusions that fit in with their systems of belief, without challenge or any deep consideration of what they are actually agreeing with. • “It’s Still Real To Me!!!” • Racial Profiling

Warm Up • When solving problems, what often are obstacles that get in the way?

Hurdles to problem solving

Demo • Figure out the pattern for the following number sequence: 8 5 4 1 7 6 3 2 0

Mental set • a. k. a. rigidity • The tendency to fall into established thought patterns. • Some examples are…. Don’t Get Stuck on an Elevator!

Demo: Mental Set • Figure out the pattern for the following number sequence: 8 5 4 1 7 6 3 2 0 • Answer: They are in alphabetical order. • Mental Set: Looking for a mathematical solution instead of a language-based solution

Match Problem Can you arrange these six matches into four equilateral triangles?

Fixation • The inability to see a problem from a new perspective.

What are some useful functions for a sound oscillator? Mac. Gyver Knows!

Functional Fixedness Think of as many uses as you can for a …… Apollo 13 • The inability to see a new use for an object.

Unusual Uses Test • In two minutes write down all the different uses you can think of for an ordinary paper clip. . . • To determine your creativity score… • Add up total number of uses and divide by 2 • 4 = Average • 8 = Unusually high • 12 = very rare • 16 = better than 1 in a 1, 000

CREATIVITY • Almost impossible to define. • Little correlation between creativity and intelligence. • Convergent Thinking versus Divergent Thinking

Scenario… • Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous economic, social, and emotional considerations, and you decide to base your decision entirely on the following few observations: • Parent A has an average income, average health, average working hours, a reasonable rapport with the child, and a relatively stable social life. • Parent B has an above-average income, minor health problems, lots of work related travel, a very close relationship with the child, and an extremely active social life

Confirmation Bias • We look for evidence to confirm our beliefs and ignore evidence that contradicts them. • For example, if one believes that all Italians are in shape and go tanning, then they turn on MTV. Look…I knew it was true!!! But is it really?

Gambler’s Fallacy • Example of a Representative Heuristic • The belief that the odds of a chance event increase if the event hasn’t occurred recently • You are in a casino watching the roulette wheel (18 black numbers, 18 red numbers, and 2 green numbers). • The ball has landed in red 7 times in row. • What color would you bet on?

Making Decisions… • Complete the two problems • For question 1, raise your hand if you prefer: – Route 1 – Route 2 – Read both forms carefully • For question 2, what did you choose? • What does this show? • People tend to avoid risks when seeking gains but choose risks to avoid sure losses. – We are “loss averse”

Which do you buy? • A coat that is on sale, and has been marked down from $150 to $100. OR • A similar coat at a different store that is regularly priced at $100.

Which do you buy? • Choose a subscription on your sheet • Raise your hand if you chose the online and print subscription package • Raise your hand if you chose only the only subscription • What’s the difference? • The best choice is relative!

Framing • • 90% of the population will be saved with this medication…. . or 10% of the population will die despite this medication. In selling TV sets, retailers price the ones they really want to sell in the middle If they want to sell a 42 -inch Toshiba for $850, they place it between a cheaper Panasonic for $690 and a more expensive Sony for $999 • Restaurants often create an expensive dish, knowing it won’t sell well, but lure customers to buy second or third most expensive dishes • College students were more likely to spend a $50 check when it was called a “bonus” vs. a “tuition rebate” • “Fired” vs. “Resigned” • “Global Warming” vs. “Climate Change” • “Obamacare” vs. Affordable Care Act • “Freedom fighters” vs. “Rebels” • The way a problem is presented can drastically effect the way we view it.