The World Energy Challenge A Very Brief Overview

The World Energy Challenge: A Very Brief Overview Engr 10

With your neighbor discuss 1. 2. 3. 4. What are fossil fuels? Why are they important? Are they renewable? Approx. what % of world energy use is fossil fuels?

What do you already know? Approximately what % of world energy use is fossil fuels? A. 20% B. 50% C. 65% D. 85% E. 98%

https: //commons. wikimedia. org/wiki/File: World_energy_consumption_by_fuel. svg

COAL #2 Other #4 Natural Gas #3 OIL #1 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016

Energy Consumption by Region 2015

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016

World Energy Consumption Projections EIA projects 48% increase in world energy consumption by 2040 Source: U. S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2016

BP world primary energy consumption Exxon world primary energy consumption projections to 2040 projections to 2035 EIA world primary energy consumption projections to 2040

World Electricity Generation by Fuel Type

Energy Production by Region

billion Oil At our current rate of usage, these reserves would last 42 years. http: //www. bp. com/sectiongenericarticle. do? category. Id=9023769&content. Id=7044915

2013 Oil billion At our current rate of usage, these reserves would last 53 years! 42. 1 229. 6 329. 6 130. 3 147. 8 808. 5 Source of reserves data: World Energy Resources 2013 Survey, World Energy Council.

BP's 2015 Statistical Review of World Energy report

BP's 2016 Statistical Review of World Energy report

US remains largest producer of oil and natural gas https: //www. eia. gov/todayinenergy/detail. php? id=31532

What We Pay for in a Gallon of Gas http: //www. eia. gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/

Today’s Oil Prices (/bbl) http: //www. oil-price. net/

Crude Oil Prices to Increase Slightly

What have you heard about the Keystone pipeline? Meclee: http: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/File: Keystone-pipeline-route. png

What do you already know? Which country is the #1 source of oil imports for the U. S. ? a) Russia b) Saudi Arabia c) Canada d) Mexico e) Venezuela

3 out of 4 Americans think that the U. S. imports the majority of its oil from the Middle East, but it is only a quarter of U. S. oil imports. 60% of the oil that Americans use is produced in the U. S.

https: //seekingalpha. com/article/3282985 -crude-oil-whats-with-those-canadianimports-eh

Oil Imports to US http: //www. visualcapitalist. com/animation-oil-imports-to-u-s-shifted-15 -years/

Top Oil Imports to US https: //www. eia. gov/pe. Troleum/impor. Ts/companylevel/

World Natural Gas Consumption https: //www. ihs. com/products/natural-gas-chemical-economics-handbook. html

Proven Gas Reserves BP's 2016 Statistical Review of World Energy report

The Amazing Rise in U. S. Proven Natural Gas Reserves and Use, Jude Clement, Forbes. com

FRACKING BBC News, 27 Jun 2013

World Coal Consumption https: //notalotofpeopleknowthat. wordpress. com/2015/07/30/coal-statistics-for-2014/

World Coal Consumption

http: //www. theenergycollective. com/gail-tverberg/2396261/2017 -the-year-when-the -world-economy-starts-coming-apart

Proven Coal Reserves BP's 2016 Statistical Review of World Energy report

Fossil Fuel Depletion Good News n Continually finding new fossil fuel deposits n Many known, but untapped deposits Bad News n Fossil fuels, esp. oil and natural gas, will not last forever. • Even before they run out, as demand grows and availability shrinks, prices will skyrocket.

Fossil Fuel Challenges Non-renewable n Depleting resources n Increasing demand n Is that all? http: //upload. wikimedia. org/wikipedia/commons/b/ba/Gulf_Offshore_Platform. jpg

Air Pollution Burning fossil fuels causes air pollution from waste products n n Particulates: small bits of burned fuel, causing smog Ozone: nitrogen oxide & other gases react to create ozone near the earth’s surface Sulfur dioxide: causing acid rain Carbon monoxide: displaces O 2 in blood, deprives brain, heart, etc. of O 2

Fossil Fuel Extraction Causes Environmental Damage n Adverse environmental effects due to drilling, leakages, and spills include • • • Surface and ground water pollution Drilling fluid (called mud) releases Land subsidence Land wildlife disruption Oil spills http: //www. newscientist. com/article/dn 2387 http: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/File: Oiled_bird_3. jpg http: //www. masstech. org/cleanenergy/important/envother. htm

Clean Air Act – We’re getting better! n Clean Air Act - resulted in significant improvements in the U. S. • Pollution 20 cars today = 1 car from 1960’s • Emissions reduced: CO by 33%, sulfur dioxide by 38%, volatile organic compounds by 42%, particulate matter by 75%, lead by 98% n n Overall air pollution reduction approximately 48% Hot spots of bad air pollution still exist http: //www. dispatchesfromchina. com/2010/06/pass_the_mask. html

It’s Not All Good News Many developing countries do not yet have strict pollution regulations in place, and pollution is significantly worse than in the U. S. Beijing London Mumbai Baku, Azerbaijan http: //www. dispatchesfromchina. com/2010/06/pass_the_mask. html http: //blog. sustainablog. org/do-cities-located-by-the-water-have-a-sustainability-advantage/

Global Warming n The theory behind global warming - an increase in certain gases will cause more heat to be reflected, increasing the atmosphere’s temperature. • Burning of fossil fuels produces significant amounts of these greenhouse gases n Conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group of 1, 300 scientific experts from many countries: • Greater than 90% chance that human activities over the past 250 years have warmed our planet

Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse glass n n n Allows short wavelength radiation from the sun Reflects the long wavelength radiation inside Trapping heat inside https: //globalgreening. wordpress. com/2010/01/13/

http: //see-the-sea. org/topics/pollution/air/green-house/greenhouse_effect. htm Greenhouse gases have this same effect, causing our world to be warm.

Can You Name The Main Greenhouse Gases?

GHGs in Atmosphere n Water Vapor (H 2 O) • 36%-72% n n n Carbon Dioxide (CO 2) Methane (CH 4) Fluorocarbons (CFCs) Ozone (O 3) Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O) http: //nlc-echs-groupthree. co. uk/greenhousegasses. aspx

Correlation Between CO 2 and Temperature http: //www. climatechoices. org. uk/pages/cchange 3. htm

Correlation Between CO 2 and Temperature Marian Koshland Science Museum of the National Academy of Sciences: Global Warming Facts and Our Futures, originally provided to that site by Kurt Cuffey, University of California, Berkely.

Climate Modeling

https: //www. ucar. edu/communications/CCSM/overview. html

https: //www. sciencelearn. org. nz/resources/2232 -climate-models

Why So Much Disagreement? n Heat Island Effect • Many temperature sensors for collecting long-term data originally were in the country. As cities have grown, sensors now are in the city. Temperatures are higher in the city (example: walking in a parking lot on a hot day). • It is difficult to model this in climate change predictions. Result → a lot of uncertainty in long-term temperature trends. Satellite data are more accurate, but are not available for that long of a period. http: //www. epa. gov/heatisld/images/UHI_profile-rev-big. gif

https: //www. sciencelearn. org. nz/resources/2232 -climate-models

A climate model that includes both natural processes and human activities closely matches actual measurements of 20 th-century temperatures http: //www. koshland-science-museum. org/exhibitgcc/historical 06. jsp The same climate model without human activity (natural processes only) does not match the strong warming observed during the past few decades.

Why So Much Disagreement? n n Predicted temperature increases tend to be within (or close to within) the uncertainty of computer models. Many causes interact, making it difficult to say with certainty what causes what. Computer models must be simplified significantly and cannot take all interacting parameters into account.

Petition Project n n About 32, 000 American scientists (9000+ with Ph. Ds) signed a petition saying that no scientific evidence exists that manmade GHG emissions have had a significant effect on Earth’s temperature. Here are several figures from a published paper that this project references. http: //www. petitionproject. org/review_article. php

Petition Project, cont. http: //www. petitionproject. org/review_article. php

So, Who’s Right? ? n n Many of your professors have strong opinions on this matter, you should do the research to form an informed opinion of your own. Here are two links, on either side of the issue, to get started. Both links refer to scientific data and make clear, reasoned arguments • http: //climate. nasa. gov/ • http: //www. petitionproject. org/gw_artic le/Review_Article_HTML. php

Your Opinion n a) b) Based on what you know today, do you believe that man-made global warming is occurring? Yes No

Your Opinion Over the next 30 years, which of the following do you think will be the most important solution to the energy crisis? a) Energy conservation b) Increased drilling for fossil fuels c) Alternative energy sources

Possible Solutions to the Energy Crisis n n n More drilling for/excavation of fossil fuels Invest in technologies to improve efficiency and reduce emissions from the burning of fossil fuels The best energy source - conservation! • In the long term, we may need to make significant lifestyle changes as the world energy demand grows. n Invest in alternative energy sources Engineers will be needed for all of these solutions!