The USSR in the Cold War n

The USSR in the Cold War

n The Cold War (World War III) 1946 -1953: Formation of the Cold War system u 1953 -1962: Competitive coexistence u 1963 -1978: Détente u 1979 -1985: “Cold War II” u 1985 -1991: Collapse of the Cold War system u

n n Winston Churchill’s speech at Fulton, Missouri, March 5, 1946: http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=x. Nwr. Rd. WOe. UQ

n n The Cold War started unexpectedly early after the end of WWII – almost without a pause It had three dimensions: Ideological u Geopolitical u Military u

The ideological dimension Global conflict between the two political-economic systems - capitalism and communism n The Three Worlds of the Cold War: u n East-West conflict: u n The capitalist West, the communist East, and the Third World (now called the Global South) Will capitalism survive – or will be replaced by some forms of socialism or communism? In the Third World, massive struggles for national independence from Western colonial empires

n The Global Left – a broad spectrum of political forces which were anything but united - consisted of: Communist states (the Soviet Union, People’s Republic of China, and others) u Communist parties around the world, most of them supported by the USSR (biggest communist parties existing in Italy, France, and India) u Moderate Left forces (social democrats, labour movements, movements for democracy, etc. ) u Anti-colonial forces in the 3 d world u

The geopolitical dimension Before WWII, there were seven countries which were more powerful than the others: Britain, France, USA, USSR, Germany, Italy, Japan The end of WWII saw the rise of two superpowers: USA and USSR, each with a global mission of its own A bipolar world – something unique in world history Challenging each other Containing each other Trying to control other states to follow them

But the two superpowers also had to cooperate with each other to keep their power Each needed the other as “The Other” But both wanted to survive This put limits to their confrontation

The military dimension The 2 giants never engaged each other in a significant direct armed conflict between them They fought wars by proxy But they kept preparing for total military confrontation Nuclear arms Conventional armies and navies Military alliances – NATO, the Warsaw Pact Spy wars New structures of militarism on both sides The military-industrial complex The national security state

1945 -49 n Who was on the offensive? n Who was on the defensive? n Who felt threatened and insecure? n Who felt confident and aggressive?

Red dictators: Russia’s Stalin and China’s Mao, 1950

President Harry S. Truman (in office from 1945 to 1952)

George Kennan, American diplomat, architect of the policy of Containment of Communism

Western Fears n n n The crisis of global capitalism: fear of revolution The shift to the Left in the politics of Western countries: socialism on the agenda The upsurge of anti-colonial struggles in the Third World The emergence of the USSR as the most powerful state in Eurasia The US steps in to contain both Soviet power and the growth of the Left in the West and in the Third World

Soviet Fears n n Enormous human, social, and economic losses from the war How to control society after the war The war as school of citizenship u Mass exposure to European life u The population of new territories under Soviet control u The legacy of terror u n Fear of a united Western front against the USSR

Factors of Western self-confidence n n n The USSR is internally weak The US is a powerhouse US had enormous advantages in late 1940 s: 50% of global production u Nuclear monopoly u Naval and air superiority u Army on a par with USSR u The architect of a liberal world order u n Confidence that totalitarianism will be resisted by most people; the West should promote freedom

Factors of Soviet self-confidence n n The Soviet system passed the test of survival and strength Soviet assets: Control of territory: the dominant power in Eurasia u A totalitarian system associated with progress u Role in the Global Left, deriving its strength from the crisis of capitalism u n n Capitalism is in systemic crisis The rise of the Global Left - potential Soviet allies

Stalin’s worldview after 1945 n n n n Stalinism is fully vindicated The USSR is a working model of socialism The end of capitalism is near Red imperialism – promotion of communism by military and paramilitary means Determination to control and manipulate foreign revolutionary forces Readiness to make pragmatic deals with Western powers – economic, diplomatic - putting ideology aside Massive investment in military power: preparation for new wars Need for total control of society

Iosip Broz Tito, Yugoslav Communist leader who challenged Stalin

The Global Left: the postwar offensive EUROPE u Yugoslavia and Albania – Communists have come to power on their own u Greece, Italy, France – Communist parties may come to power on their own u Germany, Austria, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria – defeated states in crisis; Soviet presence a major boost to local Communists u Poland – Soviet presence assures Communist takeover u Czechoslovakia – gradual Communist takeover from a strong domestic base, with Soviet help u Moderate, reformist Left makes major political gains in the West

n n n The West was primarily concerned about survival and rebuilding of capitalism in Western Europe USSR was primarily concerned about strategic control of Eastern Europe The division of Europe, agreed in 1945, materialized: both sides mostly kept their commitments The fate of Germany remained the one major bone of contention – but even there, the lines established in 1945 helped stabilize the situation In Asia, it was an open-ended continental struggle – but not between Russia and America

Ho Chi Minh, leader of the Communist Party of Vietnam

ASIA: n Indochina: Vietnamese Communists as the main anticolonialist force, proclaim Vietnam’s independence in 1945 n China, 1945 -49: Communists defeat Nationalists n Korea, 1945: Communists control the North with Soviet help n India, 1947: Independence won by nationalists supported by communists n Indonesia, Burma: nationalist-communist coalitions lead anticolonialist campaigns n Iran: the rise of a Communist-nationalist alliance n Turkey: emergence of a strong Communist-led Left n The Mideast u u The establishment of Israel - with Soviet support The rise of Arab nationalism against Western colonial rule

n What was the USSR’s role in the Global Left’s offensive? It set the stage by playing the main role in crushing the Global Right in World War II u It projected the image of successful socialism u It installed, or helped install, Communist regimes in a few countries u It served as a counterweight to the US u n But Moscow did not control the Global Left, except for a few elements

n The two mirror-image myths of the Cold War: Western: myth of the world communist conspiracy directed from Moscow u Eastern: myth of the world struggle for peace and socialism led by the Soviet Union u n n Stalin could control only a small part of the Global Left – in Eastern Europe He readily betrayed the Left whenever it suited his geopolitical goals (Greece as an example) And he would try to engineer a left-wing takeover of a country whenever he considered it necessary The postwar surge of the Global Left offered opportunities to Stalin and his regime – but also posed major challenges

US responses to the Global Left’s offensive n n n The core dilemma: suppression or cooptation? The range of options: u Suppression extreme: War against the USSR and the Global Left u Cooptation extreme: Social-democratic reforms of capitalism, cooptation of the Left, accommodation with the Soviet Union as a status-quo power badly in need of healing. A search for the middle ground – for effective combinations of both American elites were split; foreign policy was heavily politicized and hotly contested; the strategy evolved from crisis to crisis

n n US strategy of “Containment of Communism” The state-to-state level: Containment of the USSR. Nuclear deterrence, a chain of anti-Soviet alliances (NATO and others), economic attrition strategies, propaganda war against Communism, subversion The transnational level: Containment of the Global Left. Revival of the global economy, the Marshall Plan, use of force, propaganda, subversion - and also cooptation, tactical alliances with elements of the Global Left on anti-Soviet platforms A massive, complex, messy, costly, evolving strategy

n First results of containment 1. It worked in Europe. Why? There was a geopolitical deal between Stalin and the West (Yalta) u Successful cooptation of the moderate Left by the US u Stalin’s influence on Western Communists and his policy of discouraging revolution 2. In Asia, these conditions were absent: § No deal § The US refused to co-opt the Left § Asian Left-wing forces were mostly out of Soviet control; Stalin was prepared to gamble (Korea) 3. Soviet totalitarianism hardens, a crackdown in Eastern Europe u

By 1950, containment looked like a manifest failure: The USSR rapidly rebuilt its economy (5 years instead of expected 15 -20 years) and went nuclear n Eastern Europe was firmly under Soviet control n China went Communist n North Korea invaded the South The image of Communism on the march; aggressive, brutal, cunning, unstoppable, winning n Revolt of the American Right against failing Cold War policy: charges of treason

Senator Joe Mc. Carthy (R. - Wisconsin)

n n n Winter of 1952 -53 War in Korea a bloody stalemate New US President, Dwight Eisenhower, threatens to use nuclear weapons to achieve victory in Korea Stalin prepares for war with the West, steps up repression, launches an anti-Semitic campaign The world is inching towards nuclear war http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=tm. WBY 283 o 5 s &feature=Play. List&p=BB 41 FCAEC 0851 BA 9&ind ex=13

There were several moments when the world was within a few steps from nuclear war Nuclear weapons: can you use them to win a war? War-fighting vs. deterrence The balance of terror The nuclear stalemate From an uncontrolled arms race to arms control and disarmament The era of arms control began in 1963 with the USSoviet-British treaty to ban all, except underground, tests of nuclear weapons A system of treaties was developed in the 1960 s 1990 s to make nuclear war less likely

n n Stalin died on March 5, 1953… http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v= T-Ew. VVm 89 og&feature=related

Stalinism was unviable --Extreme degree of state control over society – hard to maintain, permanent emergency rule --War was no longer on the horizon; capitalism was stabilizing: the challenges of peace and prosperity --Communist elites needed more normal, stable regimes in which they would be secure from challenges both from the dictator and from the people

Following Stalin’s death, his successors (Malenkov, Bulganin, Khrushchev) began to move away from the most extreme of Stalin’s policies: --Signaled to the West about peaceful coexistence and Soviet willingness to bring about a truce in Korea --Security police was purged and put under Party control --The anti-Semitic campaign was terminated --Release of political prisoners (estimated number – 1. 7 mln. ) began: the process took over 3 years --It was the beginning of “The Thaw” (term was coined by a Soviet writer who wrote a novel with such a title)

Georgiy Malenkov, Premier, 1953 -55

Survivors (L to R): Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov, Premier Nikolai Bulganin, Communist Party Secretary Nikita Khrushchev, Geneva, 1955

Nikita Khrushchev with Stalin in 1938

Nikita Khrushchev, top Soviet leader: 1953 -64

1953 -1964: THE THAW n n n n End of the Great Terror Peace overtures to the West First steps towards reforms in USSR and Eastern Europe 1956: u The 20 th Congress of the Soviet Communist Party: Khrushchev’s secret speech denounces Stalin u Upheaval in Poland u The Hungarian revolution and its suppression 1957: Stalinists attempt to overthrow Khrushchev 1961: Khrushchev renews his anti-Stalinist campaign; new Party programme promises the beginning of full communism within 20 years 1962: The Cuban missile crisis. The Novocherkassk massacre 1964: Khrushchev is deposed by conservatives

n n Western pop culture seeps in: http: //www. dailymotion. com/video/x 6 ufqm__shortfilms

Leonid Brezhnev, top Soviet leader, 1964 -82

n n n 1964 -1985: THE CONSERVATIVE ERA 1964: Leonid Brezhnev becomes the head of the Soviet Communist Party 1965: u u n n 1966: Hungary introduces New Economic Mechanism 1968: u u n n n n Limited market reforms announced in USSR First public trials of dissidents Protests and repression in Poland The Prague Spring and its suppression 1969: The Sino-Soviet military conflict 1970: In Poland, worker protests lead to the fall of Gomulka 1971 -72: The start of détente between the USSR and the West 1979: Détente is over; the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan 1980 -81: The rise of Polish Solidarity; martial law is imposed 1982: Brezhnev’s death 1982 -85: The leadership succession crisis 1985: Mikhail Gorbachev becomes General Secretary

Detente

n The term “détente” was first used by French President Charles de Gaulle in the early 1960 s: Relaxation of East-West tensions u Peaceful coexistence u n The core idea: despite the profound differences between the capitalist and communist systems, war is not inevitable, there are mutual interests which can be best served by cooperation in: Avoiding a major war; pursuing arms control and disarmament u Joint approaches to regional conflicts u Trade and investment u

n n n In a broad sense, détente started right after Stalin’s death. Several cycles of tension-relaxation from 1953 to 1991 Important threshold: the 1963 Test Ban Treaty Reached a mature, institutionalized stage in 197175 1971: US recognizes the People’s Republic of China u 1972: Settlement of the German Question u 1972: The SALT-1 Treaty u 1973: The US-Soviet trade agreement u 1975: The Helsinki Final Act on Security and Cooperation in Europe u

n n The Kitchen Debate: US National Exhibition in Moscow, summer 1959 http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v= VPWG 1 i 6 Yq. Vo&feature=related

1961: Khrushchev and Kennedy meet in Vienna

n n Cuban Missile Crisis: JFK addresses the nation http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v= o. M 2 N 8 Ppy. Ja. I

n Khrushchev and Kennedy Reformers, dynamic leaders who promoted change and took risks u Ideological warriors, optimistic about their systems’ prospects u Almost went to war in 1962, then laid the foundation of the arms control system u Kennedy was killed in 1963, Khrushchev overthrown in 1964 u n Brezhnev and Nixon Conservatives, preoccupied with order and stability u Less ideological, more pragmatic; defensive about their systems u Building on what was achieved in the previous decade u

Changes in the global balance of power: 1950 s -1970 s n n The nationalism-communism nexus in the Third World fuelled decolonization in the 1950 s-1970 s Until the mid-1970 s, the US continued to confront it as a major global threat in a futile struggle America deadlocked, the war and domestic upheavals produce a profound political crisis at home, loss of influence abroad The conservative-led USSR benefits from American setbacks by: u u Continuing to support radical nationalists in the Third World; Maintaining tight control over Eastern Europe; Building up Soviet military potential; And developing détente-type relations with the West

The Nixon-Kissinger reform of US foreign policy Recognize the limits of American power: retrenchment and maneuvre n “Vietnamization” n Deal with the domestic crisis in the US n Arrange a new balance of power by recognizing Communist China and playing “the China card” against Russia n Appeal to Soviet conservatism: treat the USSR as a status-quo force; u offer it incentives for acting like one u n n Arms control for containment and stability Continued confrontation with the Left in the Third World (1973: Chile)

1972: Nixon in Moscow with Brezhnev

Brezhnev and Nixon in Crimea, May 1972

Things that worked: n Arms control n Normalization of US relations with China n European security strengthened Failures: n The US-Soviet trade deal was torpedoed by US Congress: 1973 n Nixon’s authoritarianism ultimately led to his defeat and resignation: 1974 n US defeat in Vietnam: 1975 Overall impression of a shift in international balance of power against the USA

Brezhnev felt confident n Soviet conservatism seemed to work better than US conservatism (Nixon lost power) n USSR seemed to get stronger and more influential in world affairs n High oil prices helped the Kremlin put off necessary reforms u n n But: The Soviet system was stagnant and increasingly dysfunctional The decolonization wave in the Global South was coming to an end

But the Soviet system was in a state of deepening crisis The economy, devoid of a market mechanism, run by a massive bureaucracy, burdened with colossal military spending (at least 25% of the GDP), was slowing down Incomes stagnated Thirst for freedom and the logic of consumer society stimulated the rise of dissent throughout the USSR and Eastern Europe

Andrei Sakharov (1921 -1989)

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn (1918 -2008)

The Carter Presidency (1977 -80) n US tried to regain initiative against the USSR n Continued adherence to détente, but also: n Raising the issue of human rights as a challenge to communist states n Growing concerns about Soviet military buildup and aid to Third World Left n By the end of 1979, Carter’s foreign policy was in shambles n The Iranian revolution, Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and conservative revolt in the US buried détente. Talk of a “Second Cold War”

Losses in the Cold War (estimates): n - Over 20 mln. died in local wars, mostly between the Global Left and the West n - Victims of totalitarian regimes in the Soviet Union (1929 -1953), Communist China (1950 s-1970 s), other communist states : u n n n 60 mln. people died (est. ) as a result of policies of forced modernization and political repression Total: 80 mln. lives At least 80% of the human losses were civilian Massive waste of resources Unprecedented growth of technologies of destruction The degradation of natural environment Stymied democracy and economic development