The US Presidency and American Foreign Policy The

The US Presidency and American Foreign Policy The Most Powerful Job on Earth

Presidential Powers n Article 2, Section 1: n n Executive Power in a Prez and VP for 4 years Article 2, Section 2: Commander-in-Chief n Pardons n Make treaties n Nominate and appoint and fill vacancies n

Presidential Powers n Article 2, Section 3: Information on State of the Union n Convene Special Congressional Sessions n Receive Foreign ambassadors n n Article 2, Section 4: n Removed by Impeachment for treason, bribery, high crimes and misdemeanors

Presidential Powers n 20 th Amendment: n n 22 nd Amendment: n n Changed term to begin January 20 2 terms 25 th Amendment: n Presidential succession and disability

Presidential Expectations n n n n n Chief of State Chief Executive Commander-in-Chief Diplomat Chief Legislator Party Chief Voice of the people Protector of the Peace Manager of the Prosperity World leader ALL AT THE SAME TIME!!

Presidential Limitations Congress n Courts n Bureaucracy n Federalism n Capitalism n Public n Time n Outside Forces n

Evolution of the Presidency Traditional “Do Nothing” Presidency n “Modern Presidency” n greater formal and informal powers for initiative n increased staff and advisory capacity n n Brownlow Commission Report (1937) n EOP (1939) agenda setter n most visible national actor n

Presidential Leadership No-Win Presidency? n Lead by Command or by Persuasion? n The President’s Helpers n The One, The Few, or The Many? n

Advising the President The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly

The Good: Brent Scowcroft (? ) n n NSA to Ford and “ 41” General, USAF (ret. ) Ph. D Columbia (pic courtesy www. scowcroft. com)

The Bad: John M. Poindexter (!) n n n NSA to Reagan ’ 8586 Vice Admiral, USN (ret. ) convicted in 1990 of conspiracy, obstruction of justice, and destruction of evidence in connection with the Iran-Contra affair Overturned on appeal (Don Rypka-AFP)

The Ugly: You pick…

The “First” n n Mc. George Bundy JFK and LBJ, 1961 -1966 Harvard’s Dean of the Faculty at 34 1919 -1996

The Current n n n n Stephen J. Hadley Rice’s Deputy CIA called him twice to waive off the Niger uranium story Lawyer, and worked at the Scowcroft Group NSC (Staff) in Ford administration (NATO and Europe) b. 1947, Toledo, OH BA, Cornell (’ 69) ; JD, Yale (’ 72) (Pic stolen from usinfo. state. gov)

It’s MY power! n National Security Act 1947 NSC n JCS n Sec. Def (et al. ) n CIA n Increasing reliance on NSC staff n Centralization of policymaking in the White House n

OK, not really all “in” the White House: Eisenhower (Old) Executive Office Building

Advising the President Short Run Advantages for the President n Long Run Disadvantages for the Presidency? n Principal-Agent Relationships n

Advising the President n Alexander L. George, Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy: The Effective Use of Information and Advice (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1980)

Staffing Systems (Ideal Types) n Formalistic n Competitive n Collegial

Formalistic Systems

Formalistic Systems

More Formalism

Competitive System

Collegial Model

Decision-Making Tasks Survey Objectives n Canvass Alternatives n Search for Information n Assimilate and Process New and Discrepant Information n Evaluate Costs, Risks, Implications n Develop Implementation, Monitoring, and Contingency Plans n

Process-Outcomes n Irving Janis: Groupthink

Process-Outcome Link? n n n Herek, G. M. , I. Janis and P. Huth, Decision Making during International Crisis: Is Quality of Herek, Huth, Process Related to Outcome? Journal of Conflict Resolution 31 (1987): 203 -226. Mark Shafer and Scott Crichlow“The Process-Outcome Connection in Foreign Policy Decision Making: A Quantitative Study Building on Groupthink, ” International Studies Quarterly 46 (March 2002): 45 -68. Figure from John T. Rourke and Mark A. Boyer, International Politics on the World Stage (Boston: Mc. Graw-Hill, 2004, 5/ed brief edition)

CRISIS DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES BY TASK VP W VW Dienbienphu Suez Jordan October War Tet 2 Suez Tet 2 October War Dienbienphu Suez Dienbienphu Tonkin Gulf Tet 2 Tet 1 Jordan n P N October War Task 1. Survey Objectives Tonkin Gulf Tet 1 n Task 2. Canvass Alternatives Tonkin Gulf Tet 1 Jordan n n Task 3. Search for Information Task 4. Assimilate and Process New Information Tonkin Gulf Tet 1 October War n Suez Jordan Tet 2 Task 5. Evaluate Costs, Risks, and Implications of Preferred Choice Tonkin Gulf Tet 1 n Dienbienphu Suez October War Tet 2 Jordan Dienbienphu Task 6. Develop Monitoring, Implementation, and Contingency Plans Suez Tet 1 Tet 2 Tonkin Gulf Jordan October War Dienbienphu Very Well (VW) = 4 or more recognitions of the task Well (W) = 2 or 3 recognitions of the task Neutral (N) = 0 or 1 recognition or omission of the task Poorly (P) = 2 or 3 omission of the task Very Poorly (VP) = 4 or more omissions of the task From Patrick J. Haney, Organizing for Foreign Policy Crises (Ann Arbor: Univ. of Michigan, 2002)

Getting it Right n George: Multiple Advocacy n Not sure I can tell you how to guarantee success, but I can tell you how to nearly guarantee failure. And scandal.