The Urban Growth Management Initiative: Preliminary Results § Daniel L. Civco and Anna Chabaeva § Center for Land use Education And Research (CLEAR) § Natural Resources Management and Engineering § University of Connecticut § Shlomo Angel § Robert F. Wagner School of Public Service, New York University § Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs, Princeton University § Stephen Sheppard § Department of Economics § Williams College A project sponsored by the World Bank Urban Development Division
Background § The United Nation predicts that the population of developing countries is growing at an annual rate of 2. 3% § Within 30 years, that population will double from 1. 94 billion in 2000 to 3. 88 billion in 2030 § The built environment, however, will more than double during this period § Yet, there is little systematic data to estimate, let alone to explain, current and future levels of urban expansion The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 2
United Nations Urban Land Management Initiative Objectives § Study the causes and consequences of urban expansion § Prepare viable models of minimalist urban growth management The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 3
Urban Mapping Objectives § Use moderate resolution satellite remote sensing data to map the extent of urban land for a sample of 120 cities around the world § Two time periods § Circa 1990 and 2000 § Provide complementary data for use in modeling and understanding the causes and consequences of urban expansion § physical, economic and demographic data The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 4
Study Cities § A stratified sample of 120 cities was selected from a universe of 2, 719 cities with metroarea population in excess of 100, 000 in the year 2000 § Three important characteristics were used to define the strata: § § § the world region in which the city is located city population size its level of economic development, measured by national per capita income § The universe of cities was divided into nine regions, four size categories, and four per– capita income groups The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 5
Study Cities The Universe of Cities Population 2000 # Region The Sample of Cities Total Urban % of Total Population 2000 # of Cities Total Urban % of Total 1 Europe 624 289, 052 15. 9% 16 58, 094, 854 14. 6% 2 East Asia 282 315, 465, 095 17. 4% 16 38, 749, 537 9. 8% 3 Latin America & Caribbean 424 262, 457, 151 14. 5% 16 69, 876, 732 17. 6% 4 Northern Africa 64 41, 355, 071 2. 3% 8 21, 239, 133 5. 4% 5 Other Developed 401 315, 960, 542 17. 4% 16 66, 958, 996 16. 9% 6 South and Central Asia 346 272, 666, 966 15. 0% 16 67, 992, 645 17. 1% 7 South East Asia 188 106, 051, 972 5. 8% 12 36, 940, 787 9. 3% 8 Sub-Saharan Africa 271 136, 977, 906 7. 5% 12 19, 105, 243 4. 8% 9 Western Asia 119 75, 568, 300 4. 2% 8 17, 836, 183 4. 5% Total Urban 2000 The Urban 1, 815, 562, 055 2, 719 Growth Management Initiative 100% 120 March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 396, 794, 110 6100. 0%
Study Cities The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 7
Data § Landsat TM and ETM § § § Circa 1990 and 2000 Proximal to date of nearest census Near anniversary As cloud-free as possible USGS Global Visualization Viewer Earth Observing System Data Gateway § Earth. Sat’s Geo. Cover Ortho Landsat TM Product § Geo. Cover-Ortho Stock Scenes § Geo. Cover-Ortho Custom Projection The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 8
Data Administrative Units from the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) of the Columbia University’s Earth Institute Moscow October 1991 Moscow October 2002 The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 9
Data Moscow October 1991 Moscow October 2002 The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 10
Data Geo. Cover Landcover Data Urban Growth Management Initiative Data Source: Landsat ETM, 5 January 2000 Addis Ababa, Etiopia The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 11
Data Geo. Cover Landcover Data Urban Growth Management Initiative Data Source: Landsat ETM, 21 May 2000 Tel Aviv, Israel The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 12
Methods Cluster T 1 Image Extract Confused N 50 Clusters Label & Recode Done? Onscreen Edit 7 Classes Y Recode T 1 2 Urban Mask T 2 Image The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 13
Methods Moscow st Pass. T First. Pass 1 T 1 2 nd Pass 2 2 Landsat T 1 1 Landsat 2 Final T T T 1 2 Classification Urban Mask T 1 2 The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 14
Methods Moscow October 1991 Moscow October 2002 The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 15
Results To Date § Average time span between T 1 and T 2 § 11. 0 Years § Minimum Annual Urban Growth § 0. 7 % (Astrakhan, Russia) § Maximum Annual Urban Growth § 20. 1 % (Yiyang, China) § Mean Annual Urban Growth § 4. 8 % § Median Annual Urban Growth § 3. 3 % Based on 86 Cities The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 16
Results To Date <1% 1 – 5% 5 – 10% 10 – 15 % 15 – 20% > 20% The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 17
Urban Growth 11 Of 86 36 of 86 / 42 % 22 of 86 26 % 17 of 86 13% 20 % The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 18
Urban Growth 36 of 86 The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 19
Urban Growth 22 of 86 The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 20
Urban Growth 17 of 86 The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 21
Urban Growth 11 of 86 The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 22
Urban Growth Examples Yiyang Urban Growth: July 1994–September 1999 Yiyang July 1994 1999 September 104 % Total / 20. 1 % Per Annum Yiyang, China 16 km The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 23
Urban Growth Examples Leipzig Urban Growth: July 1989–September 1999 Leipzig July 1989 1999 Leipzig September 1999 September 104 % Total / 10. 2 % Per Annum Leipzig, Germany 16 km The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 24
Urban Growth Examples Houston Urban Growth: December-October 1999 Houston October 1999 December 1990 29 % Total / 3. 3 % Per Annum Houston, Texas 64 km The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 25
Urban Growth Examples Yulin Urban Growth: October 1991 -October 2000 October 1991 142 % Total / 15. 8 % Per Annum Yulin, China 16 km The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 26
Preliminary Accuracy Assessment 12 City Sample of T 1 Classifications Class Reference Classified Name Totals Nonurban n Totals Number Producers Users Correct Accuracy 193 167 86. 5% 92. 8% 167 180 154 92. 2% 85. 6% 360 Urba 180 360 321 89. 2% OMA Overall Kappa The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 0. 8417 27
Preliminary Accuracy Assessment 12 City Sample of Class T 2 Classifications Reference Classified Name Totals Nonurban n Totals Number Producers Users Correct Accuracy 189 162 85. 7% 93. 1% 171 186 159 93. 0% 85. 5% 360 Urba 174 360 321 89. 2% OMA Overall Kappa The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 0. 8160 28
Observations § The Urban Growth Management Initiative: Confronting the Expected Doubling of the Size of Cities in Developing Countries in the Next Thirty Years § Recent UN Predictions § 6. 5 to 9. 1 Billion Humans in Next 50 Years Number of People Housing and Services Urban Area Between 100% and 144% over the next 30 years The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 29
Current Status § 100 + Metropolitan Areas Fully Classified § T 1 and T 2 § Change Analysis Performed for 86 § Accuracy Assessment Conducted on 10% The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 30
Future § Completion of all 120 cities (by end of March) § Establish present global norms of urban land growth for different types of cities § Examine land consumption and urban poverty § overcrowding, access to piped water and sewerage, and access to home ownership § Investigate physical constraints to urban growth § Elevation, slope, terrain ruggedness, water barriers § Develop enhancements to urban land cover classification and characterization § Make data available on the Web The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 31
Acknowledgments § Dr. Robert Buckley § The Transport and Urban Development Department, Urban Development Division, World Bank § Williams College Students § Tomoko Harigaya, Wei Wang, Vladimir Andonov, Syed Kashif Akhtar, Victoria Wolff, Peng (Bruce) Ou, Timothy Crawley § CLEAR Staff and Graduate Students § Jason Parent, Scott Bighinatti, James Hurd The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 32
Acknowledgments University of Connecticut Students from Fall 2004 NRME 237 Introductory Remote Sensing The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD 33
The Urban Growth Management Initiative: Preliminary Results § Daniel L. Civco and Anna Chabaeva § Center for Land use Education And Research (CLEAR) § Natural Resources Management and Engineering § University of Connecticut § Shlomo Angel § Robert F. Wagner School of Public Service, New York University § Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs, Princeton University § Stephen Sheppard § Department of Economics § Williams College A project sponsored by the World Bank Urban Development Division
Скачать презентацию The Urban Growth Management Initiative Preliminary Results
7297fad7ff7eedc2a27ccbb13fe98270.ppt