The Strange Death of Liberal Iceland Hannes H

The Strange Death of Liberal Iceland Hannes H Gissurarson Mont Pelerin Society New York, 7 March 2009

Historical Highlights n n n Settled 874 -930 Commonwealth 930 -1262 Under the Norwegian, later Danish, king Home rule 1904 Sovereignty, in a personal union with Denmark, 1918 Republic, 1944

Main Facts n n n Population 319, 368 (1/1/ 2009) 103, 000 sq. km (same as East Germany) GDP per capita (PPP) 1992: $21, 278 GDP per capita (PPP) 2004: $33, 372 GDP per capita (PPP) 2007: $38, 396 Main exports: fish, aluminium

874 -1874, One of the Poorest n n Could only sustain 50, 000 people Famines until 19 th century; then emigration to America Poverty unfairly blamed on Danish colonial rule Agriculture held down fisheries; ruling farmers hindered development of resources

1874 -1940, Less than Denmark Source: Hagskinna (Gudmundur Jonsson)

1940 -1991, False Prosperity n n n Profits, both in hot and cold war Wider resource base by four extensions of EEZ, finally to 200 miles in 1975 Overfishing, first of herring, then of cod Some natural economic growth Signs of economic decline in late 1980 s Turning point in 1991

Liberal Iceland 1991 -2004 n n n n Cutting subsidies Stabilising economy Liberalising markets Privatising Cutting taxes Developing property rights to natural resources Strengthening pension funds

Monetary Stability Source: Icelandic Bureau of Statistics

From Deficits to Surpluses Source: Icelandic Ministry of Finance

Fiscal Responsibility Source: Icelandic Ministry of Finance

Negligible Unemployment Source: Icelandic Ministry of Finance

Pension Fund Reforms n n n Tax-financed public pension fund since 1930 s Compulsory occupational pension funds since 1960 s Pay-as-you-go funds replaced by accumulation funds Voluntary private pension schemes (supplementary) Pension reforms in 1998

Pension Fund Assets Source: OECD (Pension Markets in Focus, 2006)

Privatisation n n n Travel bureau, printing house, publishing house, fish processing plant, etc. 1992 -2005 Government investment funds 1999, later merged with others to form Glitnir Bank Landsbanki 2002 Bunadarbanki 2002, later merged with others to form Kaupthing Bank Icelandic Telephone 2005 Total revenue from privatisation $2 billions

Tax Cuts n n n Corporate incomes tax from 45% to 18% (15% since 2007) Individual incomes tax from 30. 41% to 22. 75% Turnover tax abolished High-incomes surcharge abolished Net wealth tax abolished Death duties (estates tax) reduced

Invisible Tax Cuts n n n Reducing inflation = Cutting the inflation tax Strengthening pension funds = Cutting tax on future wealth creators (reducing taxpayers’ liabilities Reducing public debt = Cutting tax on future generations

Corporate Incomes Tax Cut Source: Icelandic Ministry of Finance

Example of Laffer Curve?

Development of ITQ System n n n Open access to fishing grounds led to overfishing 1975, individual quotas (% of total allowable catch) in herring fishery 1984, individual quotas in cod and other demersal fisheries Gradually, quotas became transferable 1990, ITQ system made universal

Efficient Fisheries n n Initial allocation on basis of catch history: owners of fishing capital bought out, not driven out Much resentment; compromise in 2002: nominal resource use fee Total value of quotas about 350 billions ISK (appr. $5 billions) Reduction of fishing effort; stronger and fewer fishing firms

Fishing Firms Profitable Source: Icelandic Association of Fishing Vessel Owners

All Groups Benefited n n n Average annual increase in purchasing power after tax 1995 -2004 4. 8% Annual increase of lowest 10% group 2. 7% OECD average of lowest 10% group 1. 8% (1996 -2000)

Risk of Poverty 2 nd Lowest Source: Eurostat and Icelandic Bureau of Statistics

Income Distribution Source: Eurostat and Icelandic Bureau of Statistics

Liberal Iceland in 2004 n n n n One of 5 richest countries in the world One of 10 freest countries in the world Relatively even distribution of income Almost no poverty Negligible unemployment Almost no crime What went wrong?

Bank Expansion n n Banks privatised 1999 -2002 Since 2002, total turnover of banks almost 10 -folded Total foreign assets 10 -fold GDP Oversized in terms of Iceland, but not of the EEA

Expansion Partly Sustainable n n n Hernando de Soto: From dead to living capital ITQ system: New capital Capital gains from privatisation Stronger pension funds Icelandic banks with no worse assets than other European banks

Abuse of Power? n n n European banks did not like Icelandic competitors 2007 -8, central banks, including the Fed, refused to help the Icelandic Central Bank October 2008: Gordon Brown used antiterrorist laws against Icelandic banks

Who are the Terrorists? n n Icelandic Ministry of Finance, Central Bank and Landsbanki put on official list of terrorist organisations, with Al-Qaeda and the Talibans! Payments through London stopped Disastrous for an open economy like Iceland Bank sector collapsed

Small is Dangerous n n Gordon Brown: Icelandic authorities would not honour their legal obligations No evidence for that British authorities: Last-minute transfers from London to Iceland Remains to be seen, but denied by Icelandic banks

A Tale of Two Countries n n n Lehman Brothers: Last minute transfers of 4. 4 billion GBP from London to US US Treasury, or the Fed, not put on list of terrorist organisations! Swift: “Laws are like cobwebs, which may catch small flies, but let wasps and hornets break through“

Structural Flaw in EEA n n n Gordon Brown forced Iceland to go beyond its legal obligations 100% of GDP, while German reparations payments after 1 st WW: 85% of GDP EEA: One economic area, without one system of lender-of-last-resort

Hope Against Hope n n n Infrastructure intact, unlike after war Natural resources, fish stocks, waterfalls and hot springs Human capital Danger: Wrong lessons learned Free market discredited Only hope: Mises’ and Hayek’s longevity!